Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Zaybay]

Democrats are about to be disappointed again.

We already know, we already know about the drop off in AA voters, because thats what happens every time.

[Podgy the Bear]

The runoff process--with only old people voting--needs to be a thing of the past.     A real inconvenience and a waste of resources.  Maine's ranked-choice voting plan is the way to go.

[MT Treasurer]

Polls have closed.

[MT Treasurer]

Johnson County: 79/21 GOP
Jeff Davis County: 82/18 GOP

[lfromnj]

Johnson County: 79/21 GOP
Jeff Davis County: 82/18 GOP

yeah it can be called now
Id say +12 Raff

[MT Treasurer]

Chris Carr (R) won GA-Attorney General by 2.6 (51.3-48.7) in November. So far, Raffensperger is outperforming him in pretty much all the rural counties that have reported. Still early, though.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYTimes page is at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/04/us/elections/results-georgia-secretary-of-state-runoff.html

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

[Tintrlvr]

The runoff process--with only old people voting--needs to be a thing of the past.     A real inconvenience and a waste of resources.  Maine's ranked-choice voting plan is the way to go.

It's not an inconvenience and a waste of resources if you're a Republican (or, back in the day, a Democrat) who designed the system intentionally to ensure that the preferred candidate of black voters can't win a runoff.

[IceSpear]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

Runoffs will always equal death in Georgia, time to accept it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

If Abrams had made it to a runoff, I suspect we would have been seeing a very different turnout right now.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

She won the county 68/32.

[Zaybay]

Its pretty much over. Barrow is underpreforming all of his benchmarks.

[IceSpear]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

If Abrams had made it to a runoff, I suspect we would have been seeing a very different turnout right now.

Maybe, but considering the history of Georgia runoffs and the way this race is looking, I doubt she'd even be able to match her ED performance, much less exceed it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

If Abrams had made it to a runoff, I suspect we would have been seeing a very different turnout right now.

Agreed. This isn't proof of anything, it's a downballot race with someone who has no meaningful traction with the Metro ATL base. It would have been high turnout with her on the ballot.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

I'm on mobile right now but in terms of EV, I expect she cleared 70. TBF, the southeast metro (as I mentioned yesterday) is probably ground zero for the worst underperformance given how young and brown the Dem electorate is there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well if people don't vote they shouldn't complain about the sh*tty representation they get. F**king morons.

[DataGuy]

We now have full results from two counties, Webster County and Clay County. Kemp won Webster by 19.9%, and Raffensperger has won it by 37.4%. Abrams won Clay by 8.9%, and Barrow won it by 12.2%. A mixed message, but still generally in Raffensperger's favor.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Looks like Rockdale initial EV is 55-45 Barrow: time to call it.

Never really thought he was going to win, how did Abrams do in comparison?

I'm on mobile right now but in terms of EV, I expect she cleared 70. TBF, the southeast metro (as I mentioned yesterday) is probably ground zero for the worst underperformance given how young and brown the Dem electorate is there.

Yep. Brad won Newton EV 51-49. It's over

[ON Progressive]

Using my (admittedly very basic) uniform swing benchmark (Using 1.34% uniform swing to get Barrow to 50.01% statewide), I have two counties at 100% in

Barrow is at 31.3% in Webster, he needed 41.98%

Barrow is at 56.1% in Clay, needed 55.92%.

[IceSpear]

The runoff process--with only old people voting--needs to be a thing of the past.     A real inconvenience and a waste of resources.  Maine's ranked-choice voting plan is the way to go.

It's not an inconvenience and a waste of resources if you're a Republican (or, back in the day, a Democrat) who designed the system intentionally to ensure that the preferred candidate of black voters can't win a runoff.

Indeed. Runoffs give the blacks two chances to forget to vote!

[Politician]

I don't know if we should call this one yet tbh - the early vote in GA strongly favors Republicans.

[DataGuy]

Pierce County at 100% now. Kemp won it by 78.2%, Raffensperger took it by 81.0%.

EDIT: Bacon County is also fully reported. Went for Kemp by 73.9%, went for Raffensperger by 75.2%. Warren County also in. Went for Abrams by 6.5%, went for Barrow by 0.8%.

[lfromnj]

CLAY 100% BARROW DID BETTER THAN ABRAMS 56 44 to 55 45.