Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Calthrina950]

As usual, don't trust or read into crosstabs too much.

• Kemp isn't getting 11% of the black vote
• Abrams isn't getting 31% of the white vote
• Black voters are gonna be more than 25% of voters

If Abrams manages to win an absolute majority next month or in December, what would be a plausible vote breakdown by race?

[Calthrina950]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

Will they? Even if she loses, if she does better than any Democrat has in Georgia in a decade, that says something in and of itself.

Abrams will lose. She will come within 1 or 2 points, but I have a hard time seeing her clear 50%. Georgia just isn't there yet. Maybe in four more years, when demographics are more favorable. But her base turnout strategy will definitely become a model for Democrats going forward.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Oprah is coming to Georgia to campaign with Stacey Abrams! Woot! Woot!

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/oprah-campaign-democrat-stacey-abrams-georgia-n929411

I wonder how much of an effect that will have. Oprah is very popular with minority voters and with women, especially white women. So she might be able to push some support to Abrams, like she did with Obama back in 2008.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but Oprah is coming to Georgia to campaign with Stacey Abrams! Woot! Woot!

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/oprah-campaign-democrat-stacey-abrams-georgia-n929411

I wonder how much of an effect that will have. Oprah is very popular with minority voters and with women, especially white women. So she might be able to push some support to Abrams, like she did with Obama back in 2008.

Well, considering she is going to knock on doors, she might cause some heart attacks while canvassing.

That is true. And for the record, I do support Abrams for Governor, in spite of my belief that she will fall short in this race. She would be a far better Governor than Kemp, who seems to rely on fear tactics and has a questionable record as Secretary of State. Moreover, her victory would be historic for both Georgia and the U.S. (by becoming the first black female governor in the country).

[Calthrina950]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

[Calthrina950]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

It's not going to flip this year, but it's going to happen--and soon.  I always maintained that the Democrats have been in a huge hole, and it's going to take some time to dig out.

The Democrats have now found the formula in Georgia:

1) Forget the rural areas once and for all.
2) Focus on the rapidly expanding blue (Atlas red) metro Atlanta complex--which now includes Gwinnett, Cobb, Douglas, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale on top of the existing Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.  Fayette, Forsyth, and Cherokee will stay red but will become bluer in the years to come.  And work to flip more state House and Senate seats--which went Democratic this year in many of the north Atlanta suburbs.  It will force the current Republican legislature to protect their congressional incumbents and make the races that much more competitive in the future.  We're probably going to win GA-06 and come very close in GA-07 (and this will easily flip in 2020).
3) Statewide elections will take more time, but I am very encouraged--just need to keep working to refine the strategy going forward.

This is all true. While Abrams and O'Rourke fell short, it is clear that Texas and Georgia are gradually moving towards the Democrats. I think the Democrats will crack the glass ceiling in both states during the 2020s, perhaps as soon as 2020 or 2022.

[Calthrina950]

Abrams should never concede an election that was stolen by the GOP. This was a fraudulent election where voters were purged from the ballots! Kemp should be a prisoner, not a governor elect! Bourdeaux shouldn't concede either!

Yawn.

I agree. Abrams has clearly lost, and her dragging this out will only hurt the Democrats. My prediction of a Kemp victory some weeks ago was proven correct. The Democrats might finally be able to win the governorship in 2022, though.

[Calthrina950]

Abrams should never concede an election that was stolen by the GOP. This was a fraudulent election where voters were purged from the ballots! Kemp should be a prisoner, not a governor elect! Bourdeaux shouldn't concede either!

Yawn.

I agree. Abrams has clearly lost, and her dragging this out will only hurt the Democrats. My prediction of a Kemp victory some weeks ago was proven correct. The Democrats might finally be able to win the governorship in 2022, though.

Same with the Senate and Presidential races in 2020. Yes, it's disappointing she lost. But, the result clearly indicates Georgia is going to be competitive state for the foreseeable future. It also seems time is on the Democrats' side, as they did well in the areas of Georgia that are going the fastest.

That is true. Abrams got over 70% of the vote in Fulton County, and she carried both Cobb and Gwinnett Counties by double digits. Kemp, however, was able to narrowly prevail by getting record percentages in Georgia's white rural counties, even breaking 90% in some of them. I don't think Trump got to that mark in any Georgian county back in 2016. By 2022, however, I suspect that the Atlanta metropolitan area will be populous enough, and Democratic margins wide enough, to overcome Republican strength in the rural areas.

[Calthrina950]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

Unless there have been more provisional ballots affected by recent rulings than I'm aware of, I don't see her getting closer than 300 votes or so.

It amazes me how Abrams and the Democrats continue to drag out this process. Kemp is holding over the 50% mark, and it doesn't seem like the margin has narrowed by that much. Exactly how many more ballots are there left to count at this point? If there's only a few thousand, then that probably won't be enough to force a runoff.

[Calthrina950]

Abrams preparing an unprecedented legal challenge

Awful optics

I agree. Abrams is still refusing to concede, and looks intent on dragging this process out for much longer than it should be. She might end up costing Barrow a victory in the runoff next month with these antics. If I were her, I would concede at this point and start working towards the future, either on Barrow's behalf or for the upcoming 2020 and 2022 elections in Georgia.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1063556155174264832
The end.

Good, now we just need Gillum and Nelson to stop throwing temper tantrums and concede as well

That still doesn't seem to be a formal concession from Abrams.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1063556155174264832
The end.

Good, now we just need Gillum and Nelson to stop throwing temper tantrums and concede as well

That still doesn't seem to be a formal concession from Abrams.

She stated that she wasn't conceding while acknowledging Kemp would win, and she said she would sue.

For all intents and purposes regarding the race, at least, it's over.

At least Abrams has acknowledged that she has lost the election. However, her refusal to concede comes off as a graceless move to me. Yes, I understand the concerns over voter suppression and the like, but this is just going to leave a poisonous atmosphere in the state going forward.

And now all eyes shift to Barrow

I think Barrow will lose by a narrow margin. As I said, Georgia isn't ready to flip at a statewide level yet. Maybe in 2 or 4 more years.

[Calthrina950]

I’m just glad the love fest around here can finally end.

Towards Abrams? I would guess so. Her behavior during this debacle has lowered my opinion of her. Of course, I don't like Kemp either. Hopefully someone better than both of them can run and win the gubernatorial election in 2022 or 2026.

[Calthrina950]

This race rubs me the wrong way because the Republicans engaged in voter suppression.

That being said, Abrams seems like an entitled person. When she first announced, a bunch of national orgs came in and endorsed her right away, and when her primary opponent tried to speak at DKos they were shouted down with racial appeals. Then she got a ton of media hype, including a TIME cover. Now that she has lost (and that was clear on election night), she has dragged it out and is refusing to really concede, basically acting like the sorest loser ever.

Compare that to someone like Lucy McBath, who actually has a heartwrenching personal story and took a brave stance, and redeemed a Democratic humiliation from 2017, all with far less hype. I'd much rather see McBath run for Governor in 2022 than Abrams.

I agree with much of what you say here. The concerns that have been raised about voting in Georgia are legitimate and cause for concern, especially given the state's history. But Abrams has disgraced herself and her campaign by not acting with more class. And all of the hype and adoration which she received from the national media get into her head, just like O'Rourke and Gillum were deluded.

[Calthrina950]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

[Calthrina950]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

The only reason he avoided a runoff is through massive voter suppression.

That poster prefers to be willfully ignorant about the calculated actions of the GOP to keep “unfavorables” from voting. Don’t even bother with her.

Of course, he's a Reasonable Pragmatic Republican. Reasonable Pragmatic Republicans' motto has always been "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

RFKFan68's beloved Stacey Abrams lost. Given his nastiness on this forum, towards me and towards many others, I am actually glad that she did. Her classless concession speech only further confirms that impression with me. And once again, my gender has been confused...

[Calthrina950]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

The only reason he avoided a runoff is through massive voter suppression.

That poster prefers to be willfully ignorant about the calculated actions of the GOP to keep “unfavorables” from voting. Don’t even bother with her.

Of course, he's a Reasonable Pragmatic Republican. Reasonable Pragmatic Republicans' motto has always been "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

RFKFan68's beloved Stacey Abrams lost. Given his nastiness on this forum, towards me and towards many others, I am actually glad that she did. Her classless concession speech only further confirms that impression with me. And once again, my gender has been confused...

Wow, someone not just rolling over after an election got rigged against them and an Atlas poster(who is a good poster imo) getting under your skin is enough to make you oppose a candidate. Not you know, whether their policies would improve people's lives(yes), or any substance of the issues.

An election rigged against them? If that were the case, how did Democrats manage to win GA-06 and almost flip GA-07? What about the margins in the Atlanta suburbs? I dislike Kemp, and I wouldn't have voted for him if I lived in Georgia. But Abrams has disgraced herself by her behavior through this entire process. Her calls for a "do over" and her refusal to officially concede, along with her blatant and repeated attacks against her political opponents, to say nothing of her personal financial issues, all have lowered my views of her. And the posturing of the people on here, crying about voter suppression and "evil" Republicans, has only magnified that view.

[Calthrina950]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

The only reason he avoided a runoff is through massive voter suppression.

That poster prefers to be willfully ignorant about the calculated actions of the GOP to keep “unfavorables” from voting. Don’t even bother with her.

Of course, he's a Reasonable Pragmatic Republican. Reasonable Pragmatic Republicans' motto has always been "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

RFKFan68's beloved Stacey Abrams lost. Given his nastiness on this forum, towards me and towards many others, I am actually glad that she did. Her classless concession speech only further confirms that impression with me. And once again, my gender has been confused...

You must see that gleeful schadenfreude over someone’s favourite candidate losing is exactly the kind of pearl-clutching ‘nastiness’ you decry so often. I’m sorry about the mistaken identity, but names with an ‘a’ suffix do imply female bearers in most English/French/Spanish cases, so it’s clearly an honest mistake.

Anyway, Abrams was well within her rights to wait and let a full picture of the race develop befor she conceded. Was she overconfident? Probably. But she knew she was running against a man who was inclined and willing to disenfranchise those who opposed him, and quite rightly felt wronged by the whole affair. And without a runoff in the picture, I imagine she’d have conceded a week ago.

At this point, I've given up trying to be nice to my detractors on here. Given how they have behaved, they don't deserve any respect from me.

[Calthrina950]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

The only reason he avoided a runoff is through massive voter suppression.

That poster prefers to be willfully ignorant about the calculated actions of the GOP to keep “unfavorables” from voting. Don’t even bother with her.

Of course, he's a Reasonable Pragmatic Republican. Reasonable Pragmatic Republicans' motto has always been "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

RFKFan68's beloved Stacey Abrams lost. Given his nastiness on this forum, towards me and towards many others, I am actually glad that she did. Her classless concession speech only further confirms that impression with me. And once again, my gender has been confused...

You must see that gleeful schadenfreude over someone’s favourite candidate losing is exactly the kind of pearl-clutching ‘nastiness’ you decry so often. I’m sorry about the mistaken identity, but names with an ‘a’ suffix do imply female bearers in most English/French/Spanish cases, so it’s clearly an honest mistake.

Anyway, Abrams was well within her rights to wait and let a full picture of the race develop befor she conceded. Was she overconfident? Probably. But she knew she was running against a man who was inclined and willing to disenfranchise those who opposed him, and quite rightly felt wronged by the whole affair. And without a runoff in the picture, I imagine she’d have conceded a week ago.

At this point, I've given up trying to be nice to my detractors on here. Given how they have behaved, they don't deserve any respect from me.

MUH AD HOMINEM ATTACKS

I'm pretty sure if a Democrat had illegitimately won an election by 1% you would be fuming "THE EVUL SOCIALIST DEMONCRATS STOLE THE ELECTION FROM MUH RIGHTFUL REPUBLICAN WINNER"

No, I would not be. That is a gross distortion of my viewpoints. But at any rate, the continued reactions people are giving me on here only deepens my sanctification that the Democrats failed with Abrams.

[Calthrina950]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

The only reason he avoided a runoff is through massive voter suppression.

That poster prefers to be willfully ignorant about the calculated actions of the GOP to keep “unfavorables” from voting. Don’t even bother with her.

Of course, he's a Reasonable Pragmatic Republican. Reasonable Pragmatic Republicans' motto has always been "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

RFKFan68's beloved Stacey Abrams lost. Given his nastiness on this forum, towards me and towards many others, I am actually glad that she did. Her classless concession speech only further confirms that impression with me. And once again, my gender has been confused...

You must see that gleeful schadenfreude over someone’s favourite candidate losing is exactly the kind of pearl-clutching ‘nastiness’ you decry so often. I’m sorry about the mistaken identity, but names with an ‘a’ suffix do imply female bearers in most English/French/Spanish cases, so it’s clearly an honest mistake.

Anyway, Abrams was well within her rights to wait and let a full picture of the race develop befor she conceded. Was she overconfident? Probably. But she knew she was running against a man who was inclined and willing to disenfranchise those who opposed him, and quite rightly felt wronged by the whole affair. And without a runoff in the picture, I imagine she’d have conceded a week ago.

At this point, I've given up trying to be nice to my detractors on here. Given how they have behaved, they don't deserve any respect from me.

MUH AD HOMINEM ATTACKS

I'm pretty sure if a Democrat had illegitimately won an election by 1% you would be fuming "THE EVUL SOCIALIST DEMONCRATS STOLE THE ELECTION FROM MUH RIGHTFUL REPUBLICAN WINNER"

No, I would not be. That is a gross distortion of my viewpoints. But at any rate, the continued reactions people are giving me on here only deepens my sanctification that the Democrats failed with Abrams.

Dude, she came closest to winning for a democrat since 1998. And this is a black woman democrat. In no way has she "failed".

"Coming close" isn't the same as "actually winning".  The way she's been acting since the election is by no means commendable.

[Calthrina950]

The one thing that does suck about losing these areas is that it restricts the variance of potential future statewide candidates. It's great to be able to cultivate talent even in small towns and counties, who can ultimately run for higher offices and appeal to different constituencies in a very geographically large state. We were at our strongest when we had a smorgasbord of white and black urban and white and black rural elected officials in our coalition. The GOP understands this and it's why they've pursued the strategy they pursued.

Sadly, we're already in a position where virtually every single elected Democrat in the General Assembly doesn't have a f[inks]ing clue about what a competitive general election entails, and nearly ditto for even our county-level elected officials. Increasingly, we're now headed for a scenario where it'll just be more of the same - except they'll all be from ATL and a few other urban clusters on top of that.

Perhaps the one saving grace is that the suburbs are shifting, which will create more competitive districts (for now), but depending on what is making them competitive here, the GOP may just draw a bunch of safe majority-minority finger districts out into the suburbs to control any potential growth in this regard.

Does this mean that the urban-rural divide is both hurting and helping Democrats in Georgia? It seems as if the shift of the Atlanta metropolitan area towards the Democrats is gradually turning Georgia into a tossup state, but that the Republican dominance in the rural areas is undermining the Georgia Democratic Party's structure.

[Calthrina950]

Republicans will win the SOS runoff. Barrow might come as close as Abrams did, but I doubt that he actually pulls it off.

Barrow has to remember the old hicks who actually care about the secretary of state position remember that one ad with the gun and the lynching or whatever.

The fact his grandpa stopped a lynching probably hurts barrow

And Barrow will not make up any losses in the Atlanta metro area, compared to Abrams, in rural Georgia. He only barely outperformed her in the rural areas in the first place. This will be a Republican hold.

[Calthrina950]

Republicans will win the SOS runoff. Barrow might come as close as Abrams did, but I doubt that he actually pulls it off.

Barrow has to remember the old hicks who actually care about the secretary of state position remember that one ad with the gun and the lynching or whatever.

The fact his grandpa stopped a lynching probably hurts barrow

And Barrow will not make up any losses in the Atlanta metro area, compared to Abrams, in rural Georgia. He only barely outperformed her in the rural areas in the first place. This will be a Republican hold.

This is factually incorrect.

How? Given how rural areas trended this year, I am not sure that Barrow will be able to scrounge up enough votes in those regions to make up for any underperformance in the Atlanta area compared to Abrams. At least, he won't make enough gains to close the gap.

[Calthrina950]

How? Given how rural areas trended this year, I am not sure that Barrow will be able to scrounge up enough votes in those regions to make up for any underperformance in the Atlanta area compared to Abrams. At least, he won't make enough gains to close the gap.

In the GE, Barrow was able to perform anywhere from much better than Abrams to just a bit better than her everywhere outside of ATL. Statewide, the performance is debatable, depending on which measurement you want to take (margin vs raw vote).

Barrow's margin of loss was 105k votes smaller than Abrams' outside the five core ATL counties (Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, Clayton & Gwinnett), but Abrams' margin of victory was 36k larger inside those 5 than Barrow. However, Abrams got 40k more votes than Barrow in the Big 5, while Barrow only got 7k more votes than Abrams outside of it. The latter might be the more relevant comparison given that in the former grouping, the Libertarian candidate for SoS did much better than the Libertarian candidate for GOV.

Without Abrams on the ballot and/or because it's not a regularly-scheduled election, Barrow will start with some disadvantages - but he will make up for at least some of that through crossover support. He'll do considerably better than any Generic D in his old CD (as can be seen below).

John Barrow Margin Vs. Stacey Abrams Margin

Speaking of which:

Top Performing Democratic Candidate (by % of Vote Received)

John Barrow (SOS)
Charlie Bailey (AG)
Stacey Abrams (GOV)
Sarah Riggs Amico (LTGOV)
Tied (Barrow & Abrams)

This is exactly what I was trying to say. I had remembered seeing maps posted earlier on this thread showing that Barrow outperformed Abrams in Georgia's rural areas, but ran behind her in the Atlanta metropolitan area.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats are about to be disappointed again.