Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

How? Given how rural areas trended this year, I am not sure that Barrow will be able to scrounge up enough votes in those regions to make up for any underperformance in the Atlanta area compared to Abrams. At least, he won't make enough gains to close the gap.

In the GE, Barrow was able to perform anywhere from much better than Abrams to just a bit better than her everywhere outside of ATL. Statewide, the performance is debatable, depending on which measurement you want to take (margin vs raw vote).

Barrow's margin of loss was 105k votes smaller than Abrams' outside the five core ATL counties (Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, Clayton & Gwinnett), but Abrams' margin of victory was 36k larger inside those 5 than Barrow. However, Abrams got 40k more votes than Barrow in the Big 5, while Barrow only got 7k more votes than Abrams outside of it. The latter might be the more relevant comparison given that in the former grouping, the Libertarian candidate for SoS did much better than the Libertarian candidate for GOV.

Without Abrams on the ballot and/or because it's not a regularly-scheduled election, Barrow will start with some disadvantages - but he will make up for at least some of that through crossover support. He'll do considerably better than any Generic D in his old CD (as can be seen below).

John Barrow Margin Vs. Stacey Abrams Margin

Speaking of which:

Top Performing Democratic Candidate (by % of Vote Received)

John Barrow (SOS)
Charlie Bailey (AG)
Stacey Abrams (GOV)
Sarah Riggs Amico (LTGOV)
Tied (Barrow & Abrams)

[Calthrina950]

How? Given how rural areas trended this year, I am not sure that Barrow will be able to scrounge up enough votes in those regions to make up for any underperformance in the Atlanta area compared to Abrams. At least, he won't make enough gains to close the gap.

In the GE, Barrow was able to perform anywhere from much better than Abrams to just a bit better than her everywhere outside of ATL. Statewide, the performance is debatable, depending on which measurement you want to take (margin vs raw vote).

Barrow's margin of loss was 105k votes smaller than Abrams' outside the five core ATL counties (Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, Clayton & Gwinnett), but Abrams' margin of victory was 36k larger inside those 5 than Barrow. However, Abrams got 40k more votes than Barrow in the Big 5, while Barrow only got 7k more votes than Abrams outside of it. The latter might be the more relevant comparison given that in the former grouping, the Libertarian candidate for SoS did much better than the Libertarian candidate for GOV.

Without Abrams on the ballot and/or because it's not a regularly-scheduled election, Barrow will start with some disadvantages - but he will make up for at least some of that through crossover support. He'll do considerably better than any Generic D in his old CD (as can be seen below).

John Barrow Margin Vs. Stacey Abrams Margin

Speaking of which:

Top Performing Democratic Candidate (by % of Vote Received)

John Barrow (SOS)
Charlie Bailey (AG)
Stacey Abrams (GOV)
Sarah Riggs Amico (LTGOV)
Tied (Barrow & Abrams)

This is exactly what I was trying to say. I had remembered seeing maps posted earlier on this thread showing that Barrow outperformed Abrams in Georgia's rural areas, but ran behind her in the Atlanta metropolitan area.

[ON Progressive]

Since this was never answered the first time, I'll ask again: Why does black turnout always tank during runoffs in Georgia?

2014's November elections of all years had decent black turnout, but any runoff in GA results in weak black turnout.

[IceSpear]

Barrow has to remember the old hicks who actually care about the secretary of state position remember that one ad with the gun and the lynching or whatever.

The fact his grandpa stopped a lynching probably hurts barrow

[Adam Griffin]

On the final day of early voting (Friday), 125,968 people voted (including returned mail ballots). The total early vote now stands at 405,723 voters.

Including mail ballots that are unreturned, a total of 520,465 ballots have been cast or requested. That means 114,742 mail ballots have been issued but have yet to be returned. Unlike in the GE, yesterday's court ruling means that mail voters in 65 of Georgia's 159 counties will have until Election Day to have their mail ballots postmarked (and until Friday, 12/7 for them to be received).


Georgia Votes hasn't updated its information yet to show racial, gender and age data (it's been really lax in updating this week), but whenever they do, I'll post those breakdowns.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Do we have a list of the counties accepting the postmarked ballots until 12/7?

[Adam Griffin]

Do we have a list of the counties accepting the postmarked ballots until 12/7?

Consent order's here and the SoS announcement. I haven't double checked but I actually think this applies to all counties, but the initial case was based on the 65 counties that didn't mail ballots until Monday.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1069608951044599808?s=21

Not looking good at all. We really need a state party that can actually get decent black turnout in runoffs.

[Rookie Yinzer]

[Rookie Yinzer]

To non-ATL Metro Georgians, is Barrow still running that “Yeah I’m a Democrat, but I won’t bite ya” ad? It has ceased to exist here.

[ON Progressive]

Yikes.

[nolesfan2011]

To non-ATL Metro Georgians, is Barrow still running that “Yeah I’m a Democrat, but I won’t bite ya” ad? It has ceased to exist here.

The irony is the dem vote dropoff appears to be even worse in non metro areas compared to urban ones for the runoff

[Adam Griffin]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stacey Abrams hints at another run, either for Senate in 2020 or Governor in '22: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-abrams-hints-another-run-first-speech-since-gov-defeat/3S1IZ8jB3P5mWX23bhiKsI/.

[Adam Griffin]

I took the above data and decided to see what the CNN exit polls would project onto each EV electorate (GE and runoff).

Not surprising, of the 3 categories, the CNN exit polls came closest to projecting Abrams' EV share by using racial data (besides party affiliation, it always produces the strongest correlation in voting in GA). The CNN data suggested she would win 50.3%; she ultimately won 50.5%.

If the runoff plays out along similar lines, then Democrats are down by 8 in the EV. If in addition to that the gap between ED & EV preferences remains the same, then we're on track for a 55-45 margin (plus or minus one point).

However, it could play out differently (in the primary, there was basically no difference between EV/ED, and even in the GE, the AIP & ED vote categories were very close to one another).

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1069436677981122560

Seriously Georgia Democrats?! WTF!

[nolesfan2011]

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1069436677981122560

Seriously Georgia Democrats?! WTF!

This situation was complicated, the "Democrat" lied about filing and didn't show up when she was supposed to, she was a Republican plant

[GeorgiaModerate]

In a display of amazing consistency, Fulton County manages to foul up yet another election: https://www.ajc.com/news/local/two-fulton-precincts-remain-open-later-due-early-morning-issues/tjEYsoja0NyJIlTyoCnrgN/.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.forsythco.com/Portals/0/Documents/Voter/ElectionResults/2018-12-04/Election%20Day%20Voting%20Turnout%2012.04.2018.pdf

Election Day turnout in Forsyth as of 1 PM is 7,932. 51% of the November 6 count. In Brandywine, the only Abrams precinct in the county, it's at just 32%.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, I'm hearing various reports from around the state that turnout is much lower than on 11/6, but much, much lower in Democratic precincts. We may be on track for a 1.5m vote election here.

[MT Treasurer]

Link to the AP results page? NYTimes/other results maps?

[Adam Griffin]

Link to the AP results page? NYTimes/other results maps?

http://sos.ga.gov/

At some point right before or after the polls close, there'll be a link on the main page (that top banner slowly rotates and should show it even if it's not the first one to appear), like this:

[ON Progressive]

Forsyth 3 PM update (5 PM should come soon):

10,957 e-day votes as of 3 Eastern. That's 45.4% of November 6 turnout at this point. Bradywine (the D precinct I mentioned earlier) at 36.4% of their November 6 turnout.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Link to the AP results page? NYTimes/other results maps?

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/04/us/elections/results-georgia-secretary-of-state-runoff.html

[Calthrina950]

Democrats are about to be disappointed again.