Alberta Election 2019

[Pericles]

It seems Alberta is the West Virginia equivalent in Canada in terms of the popularity of combatting climate change and general significant right-wing leanings, so the UCP's win should hardly be indicative of Canadian politics as a whole(though Trudeau soiled his personal brand so could very well lose) and is certainly not a reliable indicator of politics in other countries.

[Harlow]

I wonder if US leftists will learn from their Canadian cousins?  Or will they forge ahead to impose carbon taxes?

lol, the provincial politics of Alberta definitely compares to the US as a whole.

[King of Kensington]

Worst case for the NDP is that Rachel Notley will have succeeded in making Alberta another Saskatchewan politically.

Heh.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP vote compared:

Alberta 2019

Calgary CMA  32.2%
Edmonton CMA  46.8%
Rest of Alberta  20.9%
Alberta total  32.2%

Saskatchewan 2016

Regina  43.1%
Saskatoon  38.1%
Rest of Saskatchewan  22.8%
Saskatchewan total  30.2%

And the UCP/Sask Party vote:

Alberta 2019

Calgary CMA 54.8%
Edmonton CMA  39.7%
Rest of Alberta  67.4%
Alberta total  55.2%

Saskatchewan 2016

Regina  49.3%
Saskatoon  55.5%
Rest of Saskatchewan  70.3%
Saskatchewan total  62.6%

[beesley]

Kenney has asked the Lt. Gov. to swear him in on April 30th. He'll then convene a spring session of the legislature during the third week of May.

I wonder who will be in cabinet? Ric McIver, Jason Nixon and Tany Yao spring to mind.

[DC Al Fine]

Can the Americans please stop relitigating their country's political disputes on the international threads?

[adma]

It seems Alberta is the West Virginia equivalent in Canada in terms of the popularity of combatting climate change and general significant right-wing leanings, so the UCP's win should hardly be indicative of Canadian politics as a whole(though Trudeau soiled his personal brand so could very well lose) and is certainly not a reliable indicator of politics in other countries.

Since we're talking about a "have" province vs a "have-not" state, the W Virginia comparison does not quite compute.  Perhaps if the Texas Panhandle were paired off with DFW, you'd have a closer equivalent, economic, political, etc...

[brucejoel99]

Kenney has asked the Lt. Gov. to swear him in on April 30th. He'll then convene a spring session of the legislature during the third week of May.

I wonder who will be in cabinet? Ric McIver, Jason Nixon and Tany Yao spring to mind.

Well, if I were a betting man, I'd say that Ric McIver will be the next Finance Minister.

[King of Kensington]

Saskatoon = Calgary, Regina = Edmonton?

[mileslunn]

Saskatoon = Calgary, Regina = Edmonton?

Regina=Edmonton largely true although Regina a smaller city but still if you look at results do seem somewhat similar.  Saskatoon is more conservative than Regina, but not as conservative as Calgary which is without question the most conservative city in Canada. 

Anyone know when the updates on the absentee ballots will be?  Will be interesting if any flip.  Based on numbers and closeness I could see the following flipping:

UCP

Sherwood Park
Edmonton Southwest
Banff-Kananaskis
Calgary-Currie
Calgary-Falconbridge
Calgary-Varsity

NDP

Edmonton South
Edmonton West-Henday
Lethbridge West

So if things go NDP's way they could win a total of six seats in Calgary which is not a bad showing in the face of a united right and a good base to work from next time around.  UCP is unlikely to flip the three NDP seats.

On the other hand if UCP can hold the one they have in Edmonton and pick up the other two that would give Edmonton more representation on the government side.  Also I suspect any member elected in Edmonton is almost guaranteed a cabinet post.

Will be interesting to see final vote totals, but pretty sure UCP will exceed combined PC + WRP vote of 52% in 2015.  They would need to get only 28% in the absentee ballots for them to fall below this while 13% to fall below 50% so won't happen.  Likewise no way NDP beats either their 2015 record of 40.6% or falls to third best at 29.2% in 1986, otherwise will be their second best showing in both seats and vote percentage.  Though may if they do well in absentee ballots get their highest absolute vote total as turnout was much higher than 2015 so could get same absolute total even with a lower share of the popular vote.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if US leftists will learn from their Canadian cousins?  Or will they forge ahead to impose carbon taxes?

lol, the provincial politics of Alberta definitely compares to the US as a whole.

Alberta has the most "American" political culture of any province.

[erſatz-york]

Any idea on how "Vote Anywhere" ballots will lean? I have seen idle speculation that they will lean UCP.

[King of Kensington]

In most of Canada strong majorities agree that climate change is caused by human activity but in AB/SK it's around 50% or so I believe.

[136or142]

Elections Alberta has updated the results so that there is now only 1 poll per district outstanding.  The UCP gained the most votes but the results have marginally improved for the NDP from 55.2-32.2 to 55.1-32.4%.  From my memory of the results prior to these additions, the UCP gained about 71,000 votes and the NDP about  45,000.  No seats have changed over.  I'm not sure how many votes are still outstanding.  The biggest change in the close ridings is that the UCP added about 1,000 votes to their lead in Banff-Kananaskis.

https://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm  

[mileslunn]

Elections Alberta has updated the results so that there is now only 1 poll per district outstanding.  The UCP gained the most votes but the results have marginally improved for the NDP from 55.2-32.2 to 55.1-32.4%.  From my memory of the results prior to these additions, the UCP gained about 71,000 votes and the NDP about 50,000.  No seats have changed over.  I'm not sure how many votes are still outstanding.  The biggest change in the close ridings is that the UCP added about 1,000 votes to their lead in Banff-Kananaskis.

https://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm  

In Edmonton Southwest, the lead is 856 with only around 1,600 votes left so pretty much a near certainty Madu Kaycee wins his seat thus ensuring at least one UCP seat in Edmonton.  Edmonton West-Henday widened to 316 lead so will be interesting what position Kenney gives Madu Kaycee as cabinet minister since he will be only one from Edmonton.

Going through them all, the most likely outcome is probably no change.  Calgary-Falconbridge and Calgary-Currie the NDP only closed by single digits number wise and not sure if enough ballots out to flip.  Lethbridge West so the gap almost cut in half so if any flips, that would be the most likely but still think NDP will hold that.  Sherwood Park and Calgary-Varsity both widened as did Edmonton South so no way those are flipping either.  Banff-Kananaskis saw a big jump as mentioned and numbers actually look more realistic as based on 2015 the initial results looked out of whack with overall swing.  But it is also a quirky riding too in terms of you have in the west around Banff and Canmore a large tourism industry while eastern parts more ranchland so former being fairly progressive latter fairly conservative.

[mileslunn]

Any idea on how "Vote Anywhere" ballots will lean? I have seen idle speculation that they will lean UCP.

Actually the first batch suggest really was a mixed bag but nothing significant.  In BC, they usually favour the NDP, but not sure if that will be the case in Alberta and so far no sign off this.  Advanced polls favoured UCP, but in BC, advanced ones favour BC Liberals.  Actually advanced polls pretty much always tend to favour parties on the right, but up until now BC was the only province doing absentee ballots.

[politicallefty]

I'm disappointed in the results, but not surprised. I think most of us that watched in awe of the 2015 election pretty much knew it was likely a one-term government. At least they're still a respectably strong opposition caucus with their seat count, unlike most Alberta governments in the past.

The NDP vote compared:

Alberta 2019

Calgary CMA  32.2%
Edmonton CMA  46.8%
Rest of Alberta  20.9%
Alberta total  32.2%

Saskatchewan 2016

Regina  43.1%
Saskatoon  38.1%
Rest of Saskatchewan  22.8%
Saskatchewan total  30.2%

And the UCP/Sask Party vote:

Alberta 2019

Calgary CMA 54.8%
Edmonton CMA  39.7%
Rest of Alberta  67.4%
Alberta total  55.2%

Saskatchewan 2016

Regina  49.3%
Saskatoon  55.5%
Rest of Saskatchewan  70.3%
Saskatchewan total  62.6%

What were the 2015 results for the NDP? I think I read they were at like 62% in Edmonton then, so it's a pretty steep loss there, but they seem to have held on very well in terms of seats.

It seems to me like the biggest problem now for the Alberta NDP is Calgary, where they've been historically weak (both at the federal and provincial levels). They really capitalized on a divided right-wing in 2015. If they ever want to form government again, it seems like they have to make massive inroads into Calgary and re-solidify Edmonton.

Also, I know the results haven't been finalized yet, but what was the median seat?

[mileslunn]

There are still 86,000 votes outstanding and it is the special mobile ones to be counted.  Looking at the numbers, NDP is only 22,000 votes shy of what they got in 2015 so they will likely have a higher raw total and when all is said and done, probably the third highest ever in Alberta history only behind off course UCP this time and Alberta PCs in 2001.  UCP will for sure pass the million vote marker.

Of the absentee ballots counted so far the results are 51.6% UCP to 33% NDP so very slight swing to NDP but not much and was far from uniform across ridings.

[politicallefty]

I know federal and provincial politics are quite different in Canada, but I have to wonder if the results in Calgary could potentially bode well for the Liberals in Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview.  The Alberta NDP ran very strong in Calgary-McCall, which seems to overlap with the federal Calgary Skyview riding.

[beesley]

I know federal and provincial politics are quite different in Canada, but I have to wonder if the results in Calgary could potentially bode well for the Liberals in Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview.  The Alberta NDP ran very strong in Calgary-McCall, which seems to overlap with the federal Calgary Skyview riding.

Generally the federal Conservatives' total should be higher than the provincial total, but regardless, I can't see the Liberals getting near the NDP total.

I would argue the Liberals' best shot for a hold is Edmonton Centre.

[politicallefty]

I know federal and provincial politics are quite different in Canada, but I have to wonder if the results in Calgary could potentially bode well for the Liberals in Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview.  The Alberta NDP ran very strong in Calgary-McCall, which seems to overlap with the federal Calgary Skyview riding.

Generally the federal Conservatives' total should be higher than the provincial total, but regardless, I can't see the Liberals getting near the NDP total.

I would argue the Liberals' best shot for a hold is Edmonton Centre.

Even if Calgary Centre falls, Calgary Skyview seems far more likely to hold to the LPC. I'm not trying to translate Alberta NDP results into LPC results of course. However, the provincial Calgary-McCall, where the Alberta NDP won a majority and their best results in the city, overlaps with the federal Calgary Skyview riding. That was the Liberal's best riding in Calgary and in all of Alberta by margin. I think the federal NDP is too strong in Edmonton for the Liberals to have anything close to reliable or safe now.

[beesley]

I know federal and provincial politics are quite different in Canada, but I have to wonder if the results in Calgary could potentially bode well for the Liberals in Calgary Centre and Calgary Skyview.  The Alberta NDP ran very strong in Calgary-McCall, which seems to overlap with the federal Calgary Skyview riding.

Generally the federal Conservatives' total should be higher than the provincial total, but regardless, I can't see the Liberals getting near the NDP total.

I would argue the Liberals' best shot for a hold is Edmonton Centre.

Even if Calgary Centre falls, Calgary Skyview seems far more likely to hold to the LPC. I'm not trying to translate Alberta NDP results into LPC results of course. However, the provincial Calgary-McCall, where the Alberta NDP won a majority and their best results in the city, overlaps with the federal Calgary Skyview riding. That was the Liberal's best riding in Calgary and in all of Alberta by margin. I think the federal NDP is too strong in Edmonton for the Liberals to have anything close to reliable or safe now.

It depends how you look at it, I think the Conservatives have a high chance of sweeping Alberta so whether Calgary or Edmonton swings more won't affect the total. Demographically Skyview and Mill Woods may have similar results which are different to Calgary and Edmonton Centre. Interestingly although Edmonton is definitely the more left city, EPP saw Calgary as better for the Liberals last time, although it seems most of us have put Centre as a Conservative gain and the others TCTC. The Liberals may have denied the NDP a second seat last time so there's clearly a lot of crossover. As is often the case with Canada, just wait and see what happens.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if US leftists will learn from their Canadian cousins?  Or will they forge ahead to impose carbon taxes?

lol, the provincial politics of Alberta definitely compares to the US as a whole.

Alberta has the most "American" political culture of any province.

Indeed, many Americans even moved there...

[King of Kensington]

IIRC in the 2015 election the Conservatives got around 55% of the vote in Calgary and just under 50% in Edmonton.  In other words Calgary voted very similarly to the way it did federally (though with the main center-left competitor being different) while Edmonton is full of "orange Tories."

ETA: Clarification -  I mean the 2015 federal election.

[politicallefty]

It depends how you look at it, I think the Conservatives have a high chance of sweeping Alberta so whether Calgary or Edmonton swings more won't affect the total. Demographically Skyview and Mill Woods may have similar results which are different to Calgary and Edmonton Centre. Interestingly although Edmonton is definitely the more left city, EPP saw Calgary as better for the Liberals last time, although it seems most of us have put Centre as a Conservative gain and the others TCTC. The Liberals may have denied the NDP a second seat last time so there's clearly a lot of crossover. As is often the case with Canada, just wait and see what happens.

I agree that we'll just have to see what happens. A lot will depend on the vote split and how many on the vote strategically once again, something I think that's more likely to happen in Calgary than Edmonton. I'd actually guess that Calgary Skyview is probably the most likely Liberal seat in Alberta, but a lot will depend on how they do nationwide. I think Edmonton Strathcona still stays with the NDP. Linda Duncan may have been a strong candidate and incumbent, but I think that's a fundamentally NDP seat.

IIRC in the 2015 election the Conservatives got around 55% of the vote in Calgary and just under 50% in Edmonton.  In other words Calgary voted very similarly to the way it did federally (though with the main center-left competitor being different) while Edmonton is full of "orange Tories."

Do you know what the median seat was in this election? I'm curious to know.