Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl poll for the upcoming local election in Amsterdam:

D66 9 (-5)
GL 9 (+3)
VVD 6 (-)
PvdA 5 (-5)
SP 4 (-2)
DENK 3 (new, +3)
FvD 3 (new, +3)
PvdD 2 (+1)
BIJ1 2 (new, +2)
CDA 1 (-)
50Plus 1 (new, +1)
Elderly Party 0 (-1)

The current D66-VVD-SP coalition would lose its majority. Painful numbers for D66, suggesting that either their achievements as part of the local government or (more likely) their participation in the national government is not valued too highly by many of their 2014 voters in Amsterdam. Another cold shower for the PvdA as well.

[DavidB.]

The poll seems to be in line with the general election result of 2017. D66 had 18% in Amsterdam (GL was larger), which is about 9 local seats. People forget that 2014 was the highpoint of D66 where it frequently polled first. To me this poll suggests that D66 is not really punished so far since they enter the national government

You're absolutely right, my suggestions were probably overly influenced by wishful thinking. I also think that part of the reason why D66 had an unusually good election in 2014 in Amsterdam was that there was an "anyone but the PvdA" vote (related to the party's style of governing in the capital, not to the party's national lack of popularity) and D66 were regarded as the only other party that could top the poll.

Meanwhile, the SP is receiving quite some criticism from the left after allegedly pulling a 180 on the subject of EU agreements on migration with third countries. Roemer had opposed the deal with Turkey, calling it "dirty" and criticizing it for not meeting human rights standards. However, Lilian Marijnissen, the new party leader, now stated in De Volkskrant does not oppose migration agreements with third countries in principle, but that it depends on the context. Technically Marijnissen does not necessarily contradict Roemer and his position on the agreement with Turkey, but to me it appears that something has changed: Marijnissen confirms that she would not necessarily oppose a migration agreement with Morocco, while she had to agree with the reporter that there are not many African countries with a better human rights situation than Turkey. She also says that "it would be moronic" to oppose migrants applying for asylum in third countries and that "in principle, it is desirable that migrants are taken in by neighboring countries." Roemer, on the other hand, appeared to reject the underlying idea of such migration deals, namely that migrants do not have a right to apply for asylum in Europe. It is hard not to see this change as the fulfillment of Jan Marijnissen and Ron Meyer's wish to ditch the Roemer/Gesthuizen policy and tone on migration, which they regarded as too refugee-friendly and out of sync with the views of the Dutch working class.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today:
VVD 27
D66 16 (+1)
FvD 15
PVV 15 (+1)
PvdA 13 (-1)
CDA 14
SP 14
GroenLinks 13 (-1)
PvdD 7
ChristenUnie 5
50Plus 5
SGP 3
DENK 3

In Groningen another severe earthquake took place. In this light, the government's gas drilling plans have become controversial again: according to critics, the amount of gas extracted is not decreasing quickly enough. In addition, claims for reparations have not been dealt with during the very long formation process, which understandably has pissed people off.

"What should happen with gas extraction in Groningen?"
Immediately end it - 19%
End it in the coming few years - 23%
End it gradually - 45%
Continue extraction as is now the case - 8%

Those who want to end it now or in the coming few years were asked whether they would find it to be acceptable to pay 150 euros more in taxes on a yearly basis if gas extraction were to be terminated. 48% said this would be acceptable to them, 44% said it would not.

52% view PM Rutte's role in the gas extraction issue as negative, 28% are neutral and only 11% regard his handling of the issue as positive.

Following America's most recent SJW fad, statues, roads and schools named after historical figures from the Golden Age have now become controversial in the inner city of Amsterdam, and the whole country has to know about it. A school in bobo Amsterdam East named after Jan Pieterszoon Coen will change its name. 65% oppose this (including pluralities of the D66, PvdA, SP and PvdD electorates), only 23% support it.

As a gotcha, pollster De Hond included a question on approval of the name change of Amsterdam's Stalin Avenue to Freedom Avenue in the 1950s, as if Stalin has been an important figure in our national history. 49% support the name change that took place at the time, a whopping 37% oppose it, including a plurality of VVD voters (lol).

[DavidB.]

That Rotterdam poll is terrible. F**k the PVV for screwing over Leefbaar, a highly effective and successful party.

In The Hague, the braindead part of the local PVV (consisting of former MPs Karen Gerbrands and Willie Dille) has successfully managed to chase away the (more or less) normal part, consisting of Elias van Hees (who already left last year), Danielle de Winter and Tim Vermeer. Hope they will get a nice seat loss. This is likely to happen and will probably mainly benefit local party Groep De Mos, led by former PVV MP Richard de Mos. Will be voting VVD myself.

[DavidB.]

That Rotterdam poll is terrible. F**k the PVV for screwing over Leefbaar, a highly effective and successful party.

In The Hague, the braindead part of the local PVV (consisting of former MPs Karen Gerbrands and Willie Dille) has successfully managed to chase away the (more or less) normal part, consisting of Elias van Hees (who already left last year), Danielle de Winter and Tim Vermeer. Hope they will get a nice seat loss. This is likely to happen and will probably mainly benefit local party Groep De Mos, led by former PVV MP Richard de Mos. Will be voting VVD myself.

Why not Groep De Mos?

I am sympathetic to them and I actually just read their manifesto, which is quite impressive. I might give them a chance. At the same time, I very much feel that they are not there for voters like me.  They are there for working-class people who have been living in The Hague for generations: for "Hagenezen" (which they use in their manifesto all the time as well), not for "Hagenaars". This is a good thing, as these people are usually ignored by most other parties and deserve to be represented well, which De Mos does absolutely does (while the PVV does not). But these voters' needs and desires are not necessarily always my needs and desires. For instance, Groep De Mos seems even more car-oriented than the (greenish) VVD, whereas I would like upgrading the bikelane and public transit system to be prioritized. In addition, Groep De Mos is also explicitly a party for the elderly and therefore comes up with proposals such as free public transit for pensioners. This sort of ideas seem unnecessary and needlessly expensive to me: just like all poor people, poor elderly people already get a lot of freebies, including access to public transit at a reduced price, and the very many elderly who have more money to spend clearly don't need it. Still, as I said, I am quite impressed by their manifesto and will consider them more seriously than I previously did.

[DavidB.]

Some controversy over the decision by Minister Kaag (Development Cooperation, D66) to pay 13 million euros to UNRWA immediately. The Dutch government was already going to contribute this amount of money, but following Donald Trump and Nikki Haley's decision to slash U.S. funding to UNRWA, Kaag decided to have the payment take place immediately.

MP Danai van Weerdenburg (PVV) referred to Kaag's personal commitment to the UNRWA (she worked there in the past), to which Minister Zijlstra (Foreign Affairs, VVD; Kaag was in Davos) rather angrily responded that he was fed up with the right-wing opposition's tendency to point at Kaag's spouse, a Palestinian former PLO official, to discredit her -- which Van Weerdenburg had not done here. She thanked Zijlstra for his addition.

But opposition to Kaag's decision did not only come from the PVV. SGP leader Kees van der Staaij noted that it has become a habit of Development Cooperation ministers to try and "act brave" by making payments to organizations hit by Trump's budget cuts: Kaag's predecessor Lilianne Ploumen (PvdA) became well-known for her initiative SheDecides, defying Trump's reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy. Van der Staaij was dissatisfied with Kaag's decision, and the government, with a majority of one in both houses of parliament, might need the SGP in the future.

It also turned out that coalition parties VVD, CDA and CU were not amused with Kaag's decision. Not without reason, as state broadcaster NOS found out that Kaag had not discussed her actions with the coalition and bluntly announced her decision 30 minutes after intra-coalition talks had finished. As a response, MPs Bente Becker (VVD), Anne Kuik (CDA) and Joel Voordewind (CU) put forward ten critical parliamentary questions to Minister Kaag. CU, CDA and VVD also decided to show their dissatisfaction with regard to the course of affairs by putting the issue on the agenda in three upcoming debates. This shows how limited Kaag's manoeuvring space on this highly explosive theme is: VVD, CDA and CU clearly seek to show Kaag that she will not get away with similar decisions in the future.

Meanwhile, trust in most ministers has gone down since the government assumed office. Only minister Zijlstra of Foreign Affairs (VVD) has become more trusted.

Trust in ministers Slob (CU), Ollongren (D66) and Kaag (D66) has declined the most: -0.7. For Slob this probably has to do with teachers' wages not going up by enough according to the labor unions, for Ollongren it definitely has to do with her initiative to abolish the referendum and with her defense of the law on the Intelligence Services that will be subject of a referendum in March, and for Kaag I don't know.

[DavidB.]

The Hague poll:

D66 8 (nc)
VVD 6 (+2)
GL 5 (+3)
De Mos 5 (+2)
PVV 4 (-3)
PvdA 4 (-2)
CU/SGP 3 (+2)
CDA 2 (-1)
PvdD 2 (+1)
The Hague City Party 2 (-3)
50Plus 2 (+1)
SP 1 (-1)
Islam Democrats 1 (-1)
PvdE 0 (-1)
NIDA 0

Conducted by junk pollster I&O, though; seems as if the Muslim parties (ID, NIDA, PvdE) are being underpolled.

[DavidB.]

Lol66: Ilhan Tekir, former GL local council member in Gorinchem who was kicked out of the party after stating his support for Turkish president Erdogan and that he had voted for him (including whataboutery about "the long arm of Israel and America [in Dutch politics]") is now the leader of D66 Gorinchem -- and that is completely fine with the national leadership of D66, the Gorinchem branch claims. According to the current D66 leader in Gorinchem, Francis Alba Heijdenrijk, Tekir's statements need to be viewed in "the context that existed after the failed coup"; moreover, "Erdogan is an important cooperation partner for Europe" and "many other Turks vote for Erdogan too". Tekir would be a "passionate Democrat" (lol) for whom "the interest of D66 comes first."

[DavidB.]

Negative press for FvD and the PvdA these days.

Baudet declined to dissociate himself from the comments that Yernaz Ramautarsing, #2 FvD candidate in Amsterdam and previous candidate for the Libertarian Party (GE 2012) and Artikel 1 (EP 2014), made about differences on average between peoples in terms of IQ. Ramautarsing, a proud libertarian and follower of Ayn Rand who is black and from Suriname (and opposed to Zwarte Piet!) and who grew up with a single mother in the most black neighborhood in the country, stated in 2016 that "I would loved for it to be different, that black people were extremely intelligent, that Surinamese had the highest average IQ in the world. But it is not true. You can take someone from Syria, where the average IQ is 84, into the Netherlands, where the average IQ is 101. This person will indeed earn less than many natives. But is that racism? No, there is a relationship between IQ and income." For some reason, these comments have now again gone viral, and Baudet's refusal to dissociate himself from them drove Deputy Prime Minister Kajsa Ollongren (D66, Interior Affairs) to state that FvD have gone further than the PVV and pose a threat to the "fundamental values of our democracy." In response, Baudet filed a complaint with the police for both libel and slander. Every freshman in law school knows that this complaint will not hold up in court, but people do everything for PR nowadays. Unwisely, MP Theo Hiddema also decided to double down on Ramautarsing's comments, saying that "this has all been scientifically proven." All this, I think, is very damaging to FvD because it will increasingly be perceived as a far-right party. This will make the party less palatable as a coalition partner to VVD and CDA, which, in turn, would mean that the party would have less opportunities to exert direct influence on policy: I increasingly feel that FvD is going the PVV way.

Meanwhile, there is much media attention for the lack of internal democracy within FvD. People are not dissatisfied with Baudet himself but with Henk Otten, treasurer on the FvD board, who apparently has a rather dictatorial style and was the main actor behind the move to shut down the provincial FvD structures. Certain prominents cancelled their membership. I doubt any voter will care about this, but it's not the way any party wants to be in the media.

Fortunately, there is also the PvdA. The Moorlag scandal on sub-minimum wages for employees with special needs ended with a painful defeat for the new Corbynista chairwoman Nelleke Vedelaar and with Moorlag remaining part of the PvdA parliamentary group. However, the PvdA group leader in the Senate, Marleen Barth, resigned today. When her husband Jan Hoekema's term as mayor of Wassenaar had expired, she had sought to negotiate a reduced rental price to continue to live in the mayor's mansion, NRC Handelsblad revealed in January. This week, the important Senate debates on the initiative to change the organ donation law from an opt-in system to an opt-out system took place. These debates had been on the agenda for months and the vote was bound to be very close. Ultimately the vote was postponed, but Barth was already enjoying her holiday on the Maldives when that decision was made and didn't think participating in the debates was too important. This proved to be the straw that broke the camel's back. To many, Barth is the absolute personification of the entitlement mentality many PvdA elected officials used to have, and I think it was high time that she left.

[DavidB.]

FvD are a G-dsent for D66. After 2006 they managed to climb out of the abyss by adopting an anti-PVV strategy as Wilders got more popular. But the PVV are old news now, and as D66 have entered a rather right-wing government, they have to find a way to maintain support. Becoming the "anti-FvD" allows them to do so while not endangering the stability of the government at all.

As for Ollongren, it is clear that she is supposed to succeed Pechtold as D66 leader. I think she comes across as a cold, distant regent (who has never been on any ballot) and I wonder whether she will have the connection with the base that Pechtold has, but we shall see. Ollongren's "task" to abolish the referendum would always hurt her, and the 180 on the intelligence law, unpopular with the D66 base, made things worse. I wonder whether the Ministry of the Interior was really the right place for her. Then again, if her image among D66 voters does survive this (and sniping at FvD will certainly help her), she will be in a great position to lead the party.

Then FvD: indeed, Susan Teunissen, #3 on the GE list, left the party over the lack of internal democracy (not the IQ stuff). The second FvD seat will go to her if Hiddema resigns (or dies, G-d forbid; he is 73), and nobody knows what would happen then: in the worst-case scenario for FvD, she would take the seat as an independent. This also means that Baudet will not necessarily be able to catapult Hiddema to the Senate in 2019 should he wish to do so, which is now only possible if Baudet is sure that Teunissen will not take the seat and become an independent.

[DavidB.]

Didn't watch; debates on local politics with national politicians are always terrible, but yes, judging by the reviews this one was even worse.

The government is going to make it more difficult to receive social benefits for those who have occupational disabilities and can barely (or not at all) work, though this policy will only apply to new cases. Ultimately, approximately 9% fewer people will receive "Wia" social benefits, Minister Koolmees (D66, Social Affairs) stated. Another 4% will be declared partly disabled instead of fully disabled, which means that they will receive fewer benefits than now. The consequence will be that some of these people, who will inevitably be unable to find work, will only receive the most basic type of welfare.

[DavidB.]

EenVandaag will no longer use pollster GfK to produce the De Stemming poll, but publish Ipsos' polls instead. This decision was presumably based on the fact that De Stemming proved to be the single least accurate poll in the 2017 GE, whereas Ipsos was the most accurate. It does not seem as if GfK is still conducting polls, so I think we have four pollsters now: Ipsos/EenVandaag, Kantar/TNS and Peil.nl/De Hond, who are all decent, and I&O, whose polls should really not be taken seriously.

[DavidB.]

Rumor has it that Ten Broeke has f**ked his assistent in parliament, in the chair of the Speaker, that there is CCTV footage as evidence for this, and that this is the reason why the VVD have viewed Ten Broeke as a liability. Retarded move if true.

[DavidB.]

Senate voted 38-36 for the new opt-out organ donation system; Zijlstra just resigned as FM

[DavidB.]

Promoting Hennis to the MFA was always a bad idea and Barbara Visser barely has any foreign policy experience. I hope the VVD don't make the same mistake of appointing someone unqualified to the office and just go with Ten Broeke or Van Baalen.

Names also frequently mentioned: Edith Schippers, who is really close to Rutte but has no foreign policy experience (this is probably a non-story, as she seemed to feel relieved not to be a minister anymore), and Renee Jones-Bos, the ambassador of the Netherlands to Russia, former secretary-general at the MFA, former ambassador in Washington DC, and apparently a VVD member. She is fluent in English, French and Russian.

[DavidB.]

Lubbers fixed the economy and deserves credit for it, but the fact that his governments continued to ignore the problems with guest workers and kept allowing chain migration to happen has caused many of today's problems. In addition, as GeenStijl said, he was "the OG of #MeToo" -- not only in New York at his UN job, but also before, in The Hague. Apparently Lubbers was severely depressed at the end of his life.

As for the "Left-Islamic Coalition", as Leefbaar named the GL-PvdA-SP-NIDA bloc: they enter the election as an alliance and want to form a coalition afterwards. I guess they will want to enter the government together with D66, as they will not even come close to 23 seats by themselves. However, D66 will not be eager to "undo" everything they did in the last four years (even with a clearly more "lefty" profile than before), and they will also want a coalition partner to their right. The VVD are set to win seats.

Not smart for the Left-Islamic Coalition to announce it beforehand, because this will scare off white working-class voters for sure and diminish their total number of seats. I especially don't understand why the more culturally conservative national SP leadership allow Rotterdam SP leader Leo de Kleijn to do this, as the SP is the party that would be hurt the most by this.

[DavidB.]

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?

I have no idea how "weird woke campus Islam" is, as this doesn't exist here, but I wouldn't say they are "woke": they are a conservative Muslim party (with left-wing socio-economic views) who explicitly derive their ideology and values from the Qur'an but appear to respect democracy and the rule of law as we have it in The Netherlands. However, they do have connections to some more shady peripheral organizations and persons. NIDA Rotterdam leader El Ouali, for instance, was a speaker at a controversial event organized by a group linked to Hamas.

[DavidB.]

C A L E I D O S C O P I C

F
E
M
I
N
I
S
M

[DavidB.]

How Islamist is NIDA? Are they the weird woke Islam you get on campuses or what?

I have no idea how "weird woke campus Islam" is, as this doesn't exist here

I would define it as the sort of person who says stuff like "yas queer hijabi representation!", and very earnestly quotes Edward Saidisms constantly.

Very interesting and terrible at the same time. I was in contact with quite a few of the (very few) Muslims in my program. They seemed more like the general DENK/pro-Erdogan/Free Palestine type (and very anti-Assad; rightly so!); most of them supported D66/GL (but one of them voted VVD!) before DENK came into being, but even then they were not really into "wokeness". I can handle that much better. I do think NIDA come a little bit closer to woke Islam (I believe they even said something about the LGBT community as "great allies", but am not sure anymore).

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl today, in the week of Zijlstra's resignation and the debates on the abolishment of the referendum:

VVD 27 (-)
FvD 15 (+1)
SP 15 (+1)
D66 14 (-2)
PVV 14 (-1)
CDA 14 (-1)
GL 14 (-)
PvdA 12 (-)
PvdD 7 (-)
CU 6 (+1)
50Plus 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 3 (-)

- 86% percent say that Zijlstra rightly resigned, only 33% say it is coincidence that it is mostly VVD ministers who are involved in scandals and have to resign, 66% say that Pechtold's comments regarding Russians were inappropriate. 49% would also have voted for a motion of no confidence against PM Rutte for failing to timely inform the parliament about the fact that Zijlstra's comments were untrue, 46% would have opposed such a motion.

- Eighteen of the most prominent Dutch political scientists wrote an op-ed in NRC in which they warn that abolishing the referendum will increase political distrust among lower educated people in times where the gap between "The Hague" and lower educated people is already quite big (due to the decline of the people's parties with roots in society, secularization, individualization, decline of party membership...). The National Voters' Study (NKO) 2017, held after every GE, shows that 59% of the electorate support referendums and only 25% oppose them, which makes the government's argument regarding "declining support" for the referendum seem questionable.

- The uproar within FvD continues (but apparently does not affect their polling numbers): three more 2017 GE candidates (Arthur Legger, Gert Reedijk and Freek-Jan Berkhout) gave an interview to NRC in which they criticized the leadership's way of treating former party prominents. The leadership then cancelled the three men's memberships. Legger, Reedijk and Berkhout also loathe the "radicalization" of the party ("the party is becoming far right"; "Baudet himself introduced the issue of racism and white supremacy. He follows the way of Trump and his strategist Steve Bannon.") They say Baudet is deliberately seeking how far he can go in moving the Overton window. They don't know if he is racist himself, but they think it does not matter because he spreads the ideas regardless.

[DavidB.]

PVV: Centered around Geert Wilders, focused on (and obsessed with) opposition to Islam. Main target audience: working-class Dutch people, elderly people.

FvD: Centered around Thierry Baudet, broader focus on "breaking the cartel" of establishment parties and changing the Dutch political system; however, being anti-immigration and anti-EU are also major components of the party agenda. Main target audience: middle-class people who used to vote for CDA and VVD.

In terms of policy positions, both parties are really close to each other. It's mostly a difference of personalities, focus, use of language...

[DavidB.]

The formation process in Rotterdam is going to be hellish. Based on Peil.nl's latest poll, the Left-Islamic bloc would need both D66 and DENK for a majority (of only 23/45 seats). While NIDA are cooperative and constructive, forming a coalition with DENK would be a world of pain. DENK and NIDA would continuously fight each other.

At the same time, there is no clear alternative if GL-PvdA-SP maintain their alliance. Leefbaar-D66-VVD-CDA (current coalition + VVD) would not have a majority, and for D66 to cooperate with Leefbaar, the latter would have to renounce their ties with FvD. The Rotterdam VVD are willing to cooperate with the PVV as well, but the CDA aren't. Even a centrist coalition of GL-PvdA-D66-VVD-CDA does not have a majority. And keep in mind that coalitions on the local level are expected to have broad support on the council, they are not "supposed" to have a majority of only one seat. To be continued...

Here is Leefbaar's ad. I like it

[DavidB.]

were PvdD not invoted to the left-Islam bloc?

They don't "do" alliances with anybody - and presumably no coalitions either.

[DavidB.]

also will Aboutaleb lose his position if  the PvdA is weakened?

He was re-elected to a second six-year term in May 2014, so he has 2.5 more years. He is popular and not very controversial, so I imagine that most parties would support his re-election regardless of his political background. However, May 2020 would also be a very convenient moment for him to call it quits and enter the national stage if Rutte III is still in office, as he does have national ambitions and the next GE is set to be held in March 2021.

[DavidB.]

were PvdD not invoted to the left-Islam bloc?

They don't "do" alliances with anybody - and presumably no coalitions either.

Isn’t their whole raison d’être not gaining power and just bringing attention to animal issues?

Yeah, basically. That, and arguing for a radically different, green, non-capitalist economy. They will not make any compromises in that.