German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

For the first time since before the migrant wave started in the fall of 2015, CDU/CSU-FDP now have a majority - while the Schulz train is heading off the cliff:



48% CDU/CSU-FDP
47% SPD-Greens-Left-AfD

55% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
40% SPD-Greens-Left

[Tender Branson]

Erwin Sellering (SPD) will step down as Governor of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, because of a cancer diagnosis.

Manuela Schwesig (also SPD) will become the new Governor:

[Tender Branson]

A new federal election poll for Bavaria shows the CSU in good shape and the Schultz-train further derailing. The poll pretty much shows that CDU/CSU are close to 40% Germany-wide, while the SPD could even drop against their 2013 results:



In Bavaria, Merkel leads Schulz by 57-22 (comapred to 49-36 in Germany as a whole):



By party:



A major reason why the CSU and Merkel do so well in Bavaria is this chart:

Is the economic situation in Bavaria/Germany good right now ?



http://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayerntrend-bundestagswahl-2017-kontrovers-100~_node-cc7ade05-c541-44fc-aaa8-13ac279b4bbc_-e1cbdd91473cf0bd8ce97b0595901ad868145e5c.html

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU rising further, SPD collapses even more:



Red-Red-Green also drops below 40% ...

57% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
39% SPD-Greens-Left

[Tender Branson]

The AfD's two frontrunners Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland have met with FPÖ's Strache and Hofer in Vienna and asked them for advice in the coming German elections ...



The AfD is at 8%, while the FPÖ is at 25-26% right now (was at 35% late last year) and almost won the Presidency. So, the AfD is all like "How are you doing it ?" Well, no intra-party fights would be a first step ...

http://derstandard.at/2000058687815/AfD-Spitzenkandidaten-zu-Besuch-bei-der-FPOe

[Tender Branson]

The new AfD campaign posters (... are far more aggressive than the FPÖ-posters so far):

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[Tender Branson]

 That first poster is taken from the Polish government playbook, in that Szydlo's government has rejected taking in non-European migrants, and instead have passed the Family 500+ law with the direct idea of raising the Polish population through a higher birth rate rather than through immigration.

From what I've read, births in Poland increased by 3.5% last year - but there are still more deaths in that country. Don't know if this has anything to do with the 500+ law, or if it's just a usual annual uptick.

Austria for example has very generous child and family benefits and the birth rate has increased to the highest level in 21 years last year.

But not because of an increase in births to Austrian mothers (they are actually lower by 1.000 compared with 10 years ago), but exclusively because births to foreign mothers more than doubled in the last 10 years.

10 years ago, 11% of children born were to foreign mothers - last year this increased to 25% of all births.

[Tender Branson]

First-time voters (18-21) are fully behind Merkel:

57% Merkel
21% Schulz

Among all voters:

53% Merkel
23% Schulz

http://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/wahltrend--martin-schulz-kann-bei-erstwaehlern-nicht-punkten-7491388.html

[Tender Branson]

Germany's largest state - NRW - will get a CDU/FDP coalition:

http://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/landespolitik/reaktionen-cdu-fdp-koalitionsvertrag-nrw-100.html

The coalition contract was finalized yesterday evening. CDU/FDP have just a 1 seat majority. The previous government was SPD-Greens.

...

And Schleswig-Holstein will get a CDU-Green-FDP coalition, also called "Jamaica".

This coalition contract was finalized today. The previous government was SPD-Greens-SSW.

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/schleswig-holstein/landtagswahl_2017/Jamaika-Koalition-eine-echte-Chance-fuer-SH,koalitionsvertragsh102.html

[Tender Branson]

The new AfD campaign posters (... are far more aggressive than the FPÖ-posters so far):
[snip]

This is not more aggressive than "Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe" or "Mehr Mut für unser Wiener Blut" or "Wien darf nicht Istanbul werden" or "Abendland in Christenhand"... Or do you mean this year's FPÖ campaign?

This year's of course ...

The slogans you quote are 10 years old already.

[Tender Branson]

3 federal election polls for the states of Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen:



2013 Sachsen result:

43% CDU
20% Left
15% SPD
  7% AfD
  5% Greens
  3% FDP
  8% Others



2013 Sachsen-Anhalt result:

41% CDU
24% Left
18% SPD
  4% AfD
  4% Greens
  3% FDP
  6% Others



2013 Thüringen result:

39% CDU
23% Left
16% SPD
  6% AfD
  5% Greens
  3% FDP
  8% Others

[Tender Branson]

Left-wing parties losing an average of 10% compared with 2013.

Right-wing parties gaining an average of 14% compared with 2013, also because of "others" who are shifting their way (mostly NPD in these eastern states).

[Tender Branson]

Allensbach poll

40.0% CDU/CSU
24.0% SPD
10.5% FDP
  8.5% Left
  7.0% Greens
  6.5% AfD
  3.5% Others

50.5% for CDU/CSU-FDP
46.0% for SPD/Left/Greens/AfD

[Tender Branson]

A new federal election poll for Rheinland-Pfalz also shows devastating losses for the SPD compared with 2013, just like the 3 polls from the Eastern states above:





If these recent results are accurate, the CDU could actually improve on their 2013 numbers Germany-wide, while the SPD could get an even lower result ...

[Tender Branson]

And the conservative wing of the CDU/CSU basically said: "F**k you, Merkel!"

Who cares what these backwards rednecks want ? They should go and f**k themselves.

It's time for the CDU/CSU/ÖVP to get this issue over with and vote for it (it's long overdue already).

[Tender Branson]

Forsa shows CDU/CSU at 40%. No majority for CDU/CSU-FDP though ...

[Tender Branson]

As expected, the gay marriage vote didn't have an impact on voting intentions ...

New polls today for the ARD and ZDF:





---

There are also 2 new federal polls out for the population-rich southern states of Bayern and BW and they are in line with the national polling results:

[Tender Branson]

Why are the Greens so strong in Baden-Württemberg? Is it just a natural result of having large, well educated, middle class populations in Freiburg and Stuttgart?

[Tender Branson]

Where is the most conservative part of Germany located?

The most conservative+populist right areas in Germany are in Bavaria, southern Baden-Württemberg, the state of Saxony and the area around Cloppenburg-Vechta in Lower Saxony (close to the border to the Netherlands). Those are all areas in which the CDU/CSU got more than 55% and/or in which the AfD did really well too.

[Tender Branson]

I don't think AfD did that well at all in the deep black CDU areas in Niedersachsen.

That's why I wrote "and/or", because the AfD's good performance mostly in the East.

If we combine September's expected results, CDU+AfD will get 60-65% in many eastern areas ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

[Tender Branson]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

beautiful numbers. if frau merkel gets another term we could have independent bavaria. that would be great!

LOLno. From what I understand, the German constitution bans secession of a state from the mother (or father)land.

[Tender Branson]

Polls remain mostly unchanged.

But the recent INSA poll shows a drop for the Left from 10.5% to 9% over the past month (maybe because of the Hamburg-riots by left-leftist extremists ?) and the AfD gaining slightly to 10%.

Other/small parties are also up to 4.5% from 3%.

[Tender Branson]

A new ZDF poll shows a tight race for 3rd:



Vote for Chancellor:

[Tender Branson]

New ARD poll:



CDU/CSU-FDP tied with SPD-AfD-Left-Greens (48% vs. 48%)

CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP: 57%
SPD-Left-Greens: 39%