2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Xing]

Can we just start another concern trolling megathread? There are easily 5 users who are basically doing nothing but concern trolling and making the "Dems in disarray" argument at this point, and I think they deserve their own special safe space, in case polls start moving in favor of the Democrats again.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Why in the world would they change PA-07 from Lean Dem to Toss-up?  Was this a typo?

[Person Man]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Why in the world would they change PA-07 from Lean Dem to Toss-up?  Was this a typo?

RCP has poll numbers "age out".

[Ebsy]

Does anyone actually care about RCP's "ratings?" Also this is not the thread to discuss it.

[twenty42]

Does anyone actually care about RCP's "ratings?" Also this is not the thread board to discuss it.

FIFY. I am well aware that Atlas libs would prefer to cradle in the loving arms of Nate Silver where every poll gets a D+5 bump, but I do like to lay some truth down here from time to time and watch the lefties get all upset.

And by the way, a mod moved the post into this thread. Take it up with them.

[erſatz-york]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

Too bad Hidey Hidekamp is going to be stuck in DC courtesy of Cocaine Mitch

[Torie]

Does anyone actually care about RCP's "ratings?" Also this is not the thread board to discuss it.

FIFY. I am well aware that Atlas libs would prefer to cradle in the loving arms of Nate Silver where every poll gets a D+5 bump, but I do like to lay some truth down here from time to time and watch the lefties get all upset.

And by the way, a mod moved the post into this thread. Take it up with them.

And therein lies a problem. Yes, I know other posters enjoy riling up the other side for kicks too, so I guess there is some safety in numbers. But it is immature. And what does keyboard warrioring really accomplish that will make any difference about anything, other than jerking the chain of a few folks?

[Politician]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

You're not exactly batting a thousand, either

Hey, nobody's perfect. But I've been doing pretty well in 2018 so far.

- Was one of the very few people to predict Johnson would beat Pawlenty
- Predicted Balderson by 1 point Fair enough, I guess.
- Predicted Bredesen would eventually collapse/Blackburn would surge It took you a dozen tries to be right. Even then, Bredesen may still be able to come back.
- Predicted Stitt would surge This has not happened.
- Predicted NH would get closer after the primary
- Predicted AZ would get closer after the primary Sinema had a narrow lead before and she does now.
- Predicted Nelson would eventually recover in FL while many people were freaking out over July polls
- Predicted Corey Stewart winning the primary and that he wouldn't be losing by 25-30+ points in the general All polls have showed him behind by over 15, and he only barely won the primary.
- Predicted TN-Gov was safe R despite muh July Emerson polls which snookered many others Even after that Emerson poll was released, nobody really thought this would flip.
- Predicted Whitmer eventually surging even when the polls were still "close" and many thought it was a toss up Everybody believed this was D favored from the start except UncleSam.
- Predicted Dems would easily win CT despite Muhloy Again, a normal prediction. Only Free Bird really thought this would flip.
- Predicted Scott Taylor's scandal wouldn't matter It actually is impacting him.
- Predicted Duncan Hunter's scandal wouldn't matter It actually is impacting him.
- Predicted Jaime Herrera Beutler being vulnerable when every pundit had it safe R
- Predicted Ojeda's chances were overrated One poll does not equal a permanent trend against.
- Called Scott Wallace being a weak candidate on primary day
- Called Lamb being strongly favored after he won the special election while all the pundits had it as "pure toss up" He won by less then 1 point.
- Was highly skeptical of the "muh Dem lockout" media narrative in California They almost got locked out of CA-10 and CA-48.

Of course, there were some misses too, but you can't win em all. Senator Roy Moore agrees.

Your predictive history isn't actually as great as you may think.

[Person Man]

You know, there are objective measurements for people's predictions.

[Gass3268]

Here’s a nugget of bad news for the GOP in that poll:

Amongst those who said they are “very enthusiastic” about the midterms, voters believe the women over Kavanaugh 57-40%.

[136or142]

More evidence to not take a single poll as gospel.  In contrast to the Sienna poll that had McCready trailing by 5%

North Carolina 9th District - Harris vs. McCready   Civitas (R)/SurveyUSA*   McCready 45, Harris 41   McCready +4

Of course, this makes it all the more ridiculous that the U.S Election Commission will be deciding the winner of the basis of the Sienna Poll and not on the basis of actual votes.  (I think I came up with 'U.S Election Commission' in my original stupid post.)

[IceSpear]

You're proving him right. And lol at DC being even a tenth as egotistical as you.

So you have no actual logical argument, just more hormonal Atlas socialist tween whining. Lame.

The idea of a guy who told anyone that would listen that Hillary would win 375 electoral votes and would win by double digits in the popular vote having the audacity to "call someone out" for predicting a Republican would win a race that a Democrat won by 1 point is utterly hilarious.  Anyway, the smug prick needs to learn from his mistakes and show some humility.

I felt it and didn't acknowledge my gut. I went with heart over mind and I got f**ked for it.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

You're proving him right. And lol at DC being even a tenth as egotistical as you.

So you have no actual logical argument, just more hormonal Atlas socialist tween whining. Lame.

The idea of a guy who told anyone that would listen that Hillary would win 375 electoral votes win and by double digits in the popular vote having the audacity to "call someone out" for predicting a Republican would win a race that a Democrat won by 1 point is utterly hilarious.  Anyway, the smug prick needs to learn from his mistakes and show some humility.

I felt it and didn't acknowledge my gut. I went with heart over mind and I got f**ked for it.

You're still proving his point.

[IceSpear]

You're proving him right. And lol at DC being even a tenth as egotistical as you.

So you have no actual logical argument, just more hormonal Atlas socialist tween whining. Lame.

The idea of a guy who told anyone that would listen that Hillary would win 375 electoral votes win and by double digits in the popular vote having the audacity to "call someone out" for predicting a Republican would win a race that a Democrat won by 1 point is utterly hilarious.  Anyway, the smug prick needs to learn from his mistakes and show some humility.

I felt it and didn't acknowledge my gut. I went with heart over mind and I got f**ked for it.

You're still proving his point.

And you're still proving mine.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about both of you take it out of this thread?  Thank you.

[ON Progressive]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

[KingSweden]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Whoa!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

[KingSweden]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

The reason I ask is because I wanted to gauge if the poll is in line with expectations for the district vis-à-vis the rest of the state/nation.

[KingSweden]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

The reason I ask is because I wanted to gauge if the poll is in line with expectations for the district vis-à-vis the rest of the state/nation.

No, I get it, and I’d like to know too. The statewide races in this poll suggest its roughly in line with the state as a whole (Casey leads by a similar margin and Wolf slightly more).

[Gass3268]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

The reason I ask is because I wanted to gauge if the poll is in line with expectations for the district vis-à-vis the rest of the state/nation.

No, I get it, and I’d like to know too. The statewide races in this poll suggest its roughly in line with the state as a whole (Casey leads by a similar margin and Wolf slightly more).

Probably a good bellwether for the state. Also, lol at RCP for moving this back to Toss Up.

[ON Progressive]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

The reason I ask is because I wanted to gauge if the poll is in line with expectations for the district vis-à-vis the rest of the state/nation.

No, I get it, and I’d like to know too. The statewide races in this poll suggest its roughly in line with the state as a whole (Casey leads by a similar margin and Wolf slightly more).

It's a Clinton +1.1 district, so it's not surprising that it would be in-line with the state as a whole.

[Person Man]

PA-07 (DeSales University for News 69/WFMZ):

Susan Wild (D) 50
Marty Northstein (R) 31

They also have Casey up 52-31 and Wolf 54-30. I assume those numbers are just for PA-07, but I'm not sure.

http://www.wfmz.com/news/804563118

Those familiar with Eastern Pennsylvania, is this district a bellwether for the state/nation or does it lean a bit to the left?

May be hard to say since it was so dramatically redrawn

It says on Wikipedia that its D+1.

[ON Progressive]

North Carolina (SurveyUSA):

Democrats 48
Republicans 43

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3ce61747-3fa0-497c-8112-436784634eb4