2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130550 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1100 on: October 09, 2018, 02:40:19 PM »
NBC/Marist will release a Nevada poll at 5:00 pm Eastern time.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1101 on: October 09, 2018, 02:41:36 PM »
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #1102 on: October 09, 2018, 02:56:16 PM »
Quote from: Vega on October 09, 2018, 07:00:24 AM
Quote from: Mondale on October 08, 2018, 10:50:00 PM
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on October 08, 2018, 12:37:06 PM
This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
- At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House

You really have to hand it to Atlas....despite the spectacular special election results (with dems winning seats not won in decades), record setting fundraising and volunteering, running record amounts of candidates (including the most state legislature candidates since 1982), Trump's approval in the toilet....Atlas thinks that all that momentum will evaporate over this Kavanaugh nonsense. Literally nobody cares except political nerds and the MSM (which of course is looking for its bogus story of the week).

I think it's less about Democratic turnout evaporating than it is Republican turnout surging and cancelling out a lot of that momentum.

Elections dont work like that. Unless unforseen events happen that negatively impact voters quality of life (like an economic collapse)....voters by and large remain unmotivated when their party is running things. The Republican fantasy fiction that GOP voters would "surge" due to Kavanaugh's nomination is ridiculous because it assumes that all Republican voters are some intellectually monolothic bloc that intensely pays attention to politics. The vast majority are idiots with no actual  clear ideology and they have little to no desire to understand issues which are not clearly and directly related to them as individuals.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1103 on: October 09, 2018, 03:02:02 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 09, 2018, 02:40:19 PM
NBC/Marist will release a Nevada poll at 5:00 pm Eastern time.

hmmm, it is Marist, but its also an NV poll. Im gonna say Rosen leading by 4.
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Xing
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« Reply #1104 on: October 09, 2018, 03:05:06 PM »
I'll guess Rosen +1, and then everyone will say that this "confirms" that NV is a Toss-Up Roll Eyes
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1105 on: October 09, 2018, 03:24:03 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 09, 2018, 11:10:48 AM
Democrats gain 3 points in CNN's Generic Ballot vs September:



b...b...utt muh Kavanaugh bump. He was totally vindicated and Dems were a lynch mob!
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1106 on: October 09, 2018, 03:27:00 PM »
AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1107 on: October 09, 2018, 03:27:45 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 09, 2018, 03:27:00 PM
AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):



BIG.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1108 on: October 09, 2018, 03:28:19 PM »
Quote from: OneJ on October 09, 2018, 02:28:01 PM
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on October 09, 2018, 02:25:55 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 09, 2018, 02:18:01 PM


Great news for McGrath!

She is probably up by 3.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1109 on: October 09, 2018, 03:33:16 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 09, 2018, 03:27:00 PM
AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):


#Decimals
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1110 on: October 09, 2018, 03:35:23 PM »
Galvin was the Likely R that I said dems would win. Hope I'm right
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1111 on: October 09, 2018, 03:37:13 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on October 09, 2018, 03:27:45 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 09, 2018, 03:27:00 PM
AK-AL (Alaska Survey Research):



BIG.

If true.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
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« Reply #1112 on: October 09, 2018, 03:55:36 PM »
The CNN poll could very well be their attempt at pushing the narrative that the Kavanaugh bump isn't real. I'm skeptical of the idea that the GCB is so polarized along gender lines, with 63R- 33D for Women and 50R-45D for Men. I'm also skeptical of the idea that they're winning the 65+ demographic at 57% to 39%.

A sample of 44% independents, 31% Democrats, and 25% Republicans also seems sketchy to me.  It's funny to see Atlas become dismissive of the NYTimes Upshot / Siena polls, but accept CNN/SSRS ones hook line and sinker. Note that CNN dropped ORC in favor of SSRS because their ORC polls in 2016 (and in 2014 as well) were way off. Time will tell if these SSRS polls are shown to be reliable. I'm not aware of SSRS predicting any election. They seem to be a brand new outlet.

When it comes to Atlas' bias for some firms over others, I think it's because many here want the Blue Wave so very badly that it clouds their judgments. Of course, I'm not the first one to say that, and I won't be the last.

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aaroncd107
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« Reply #1113 on: October 09, 2018, 03:57:36 PM »
Ipsos has D+12 on the GCB... something’s going on...
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1114 on: October 09, 2018, 03:58:17 PM »
MN-07 (ALG, Peterson internal)

“An Anzalone Liszt Grove survey of 500 likely voters from Sept. 5-10 found him leading Hughes 53 percent to 35 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.”

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/last-democrat-can-hold-trump-seat-isnt-giving-yet
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1115 on: October 09, 2018, 04:01:57 PM »
Heller +2 in Marist poll
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1116 on: October 09, 2018, 04:03:13 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on October 09, 2018, 02:41:36 PM


Enron Ed totally collapsed. A totally bad (and sick) guy!
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1117 on: October 09, 2018, 04:04:28 PM »
Quote from: aaroncd107 on October 09, 2018, 03:57:36 PM
Ipsos has D+12 on the GCB... something’s going on...

Not really

Ipsos was D+12 last week and CNN was D+12 back in September. The big takeaway from this poll is that Kavanaugh hasn't made an impact either way in house races.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #1118 on: October 09, 2018, 04:04:52 PM »
Quote from: aaroncd107 on October 09, 2018, 03:57:36 PM
Ipsos has D+12 on the GCB... something’s going on...

You should just ignore Ipsos. Wait for some more real pollsters to come out with polls. We should see some more this week from good pollsters. Many of them were probably waiting to go into the field post-Kavanaugh.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1119 on: October 09, 2018, 04:40:53 PM »
Here are the numbers:

Reuters/Ipsos GCB for Week Ending in October 7

Democrat: 46 (+2 from last week)
Republican: 33 (-3)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1120 on: October 09, 2018, 04:53:58 PM »
While the new Ipsos numbers look good for the Democrats, keep in mind that their poll tends to be VERY bouncy.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1121 on: October 09, 2018, 04:54:47 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 09, 2018, 03:58:17 PM
MN-07 (ALG, Peterson internal)

“An Anzalone Liszt Grove survey of 500 likely voters from Sept. 5-10 found him leading Hughes 53 percent to 35 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.”

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/last-democrat-can-hold-trump-seat-isnt-giving-yet
Safe D. LOL at people who said Peterson would lose because muh 2016 trends.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1122 on: October 09, 2018, 06:06:16 PM »
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1123 on: October 09, 2018, 06:45:35 PM »
The Barr +2 R internal and the McGrath +7 D internal both say the exact same thing when the deduct 4/5 points for an internal rule is applied to both of them.
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1124 on: October 09, 2018, 06:51:47 PM »
Quote from: The Conflict on October 09, 2018, 06:06:16 PM

Also important: In 2016, the GOP lost seats.
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