OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Skye]

The GOP is in danger in November. Even a +1 Balderson win should be enough to tell you that.

[Tender Branson]

Just woke up and saw the results ...

So, Balderson "won" by 0.9%, or 1750 votes ?

But there are 8.500 provisional and mail ballots left to count (which usually tend to be strong Dem) ?

This is not completely over yet (but many of the 8.500 might not be valid).

Anyway, extremely strong results for the Democrats.

[NOVA Green]

Guys, Balderson won fair and square. Let's not be like Saccone and Moore, focus on the fall and win the darn house!

Look Bagel----

I'll be unusually blunt which is not my typical style.

Your "Election Analysis" on this thread quite frankly sucks, and has added 0% to the overall conversation, regardless of Partisan affiliation on the part of the vast majority of Atlas posters on the thread.

Sure, I'll give my PUB knowledgeable contributors the credit that the current evidence appears that Balderson won narrowly.

Still, you seem to forget the basic data, and neglect the fundamental point that the OH State Gvt has been systematically finding various ways of disenfranchising legit voters as part of a systematic effort to control of the levers of POWER within the great state of Ohio.

The slippery weasels essentially put ~ 5% of the entire voting population of OH CD-12 SE into a "Provisional Voting" category, and now you are bending down and worshiping at the altar of "Free and Fair elections"....

Call me confused as a former Resident of the Buckeye State?

Harsh.

Hey--- I like Bagel and I don't like to speak about people in the 3rd Person, since where I was raised that was considered rude: "Bagel you're a cool guy but objectively you went a bit off the rails tonight to the point where the mods needed to keep you in check---- looking forward to chatting with you on other threads, since fundamentally I tend to agree with some of the arguments you post on a wide variety of topics".

Maybe I was OTT on the "100% election analysis on this thread sucks" was extreme hyperbole solely confined to particular posts on this particular thread tonight, and honestly I do feel that maybe I should have couched my statement with much more subtlety and in private......

Sorry Bagel:

I sent you my personal apologies privately and am hoping that understand where I was coming from when I made that post.   

[Tender Branson]

Well, if we assume that 6.000 of the 8.500 remaining provisional/absentee ballots are valid ... and O'Connor wins 65% of them, he'd have an overall lead of 50 votes ...

[BuckeyeNut]

Guys, Balderson won fair and square. Let's not be like Saccone and Moore, focus on the fall and win the darn house!

Look Bagel----

I'll be unusually blunt which is not my typical style.

Your "Election Analysis" on this thread quite frankly sucks, and has added 0% to the overall conversation, regardless of Partisan affiliation on the part of the vast majority of Atlas posters on the thread.

Sure, I'll give my PUB knowledgeable contributors the credit that the current evidence appears that Balderson won narrowly.

Still, you seem to forget the basic data, and neglect the fundamental point that the OH State Gvt has been systematically finding various ways of disenfranchising legit voters as part of a systematic effort to control of the levers of POWER within the great state of Ohio.

The slippery weasels essentially put ~ 5% of the entire voting population of OH CD-12 SE into a "Provisional Voting" category, and now you are bending down and worshiping at the altar of "Free and Fair elections"....

Call me confused as a former Resident of the Buckeye State?

Harsh.

Hey--- I like Bagel and I don't like to speak about people in the 3rd Person, since where I was raised that was considered rude: "Bagel you're a cool guy but objectively you went a bit off the rails tonight to the point where the mods needed to keep you in check---- looking forward to chatting with you on other threads, since fundamentally I tend to agree with some of the arguments you post on a wide variety of topics".

Maybe I was OTT on the "100% election analysis on this thread sucks" was extreme hyperbole solely confined to particular posts on this particular thread tonight, and honestly I do feel that maybe I should have couched my statement with much more subtlety and in private......

Sorry Bagel:

I sent you my personal apologies privately and am hoping that understand where I was coming from when I made that post.   

Honestly, he deserved it, NOVA. Don't beat yourself up for putting a troll in its place.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the benchmarks of what O'Connor needs to win the race, with the remaining 8.500 mail/provisional ballots:

If just half of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 71% of them.

If 5.000 of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 68% of them.

If 6.000 of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 65% of them.

If 7.000 of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 63% of them.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is enough to maybe go to the recount zone:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1027025172656738307

Assuming this is correct, O'Connor will need about 71% of all these provisionals in order to win (roughly 6,000 of the 8,400) and considering a solid # will likely be thrown out, probably closer to if not over 100%.

Remember: that number is not just provisional ballots but also unreturned absentee ballots that theoretically could have been postmarked in time to be valid. That means a significant chunk of the absentee ballots are likely not going to be returned and a significant chunk that are will be for Balderson (mailed ballots overall are historically more Republican than election day ballots, no idea about those postmarked in time but not received by election day). I haven't read how many are actually provisional ballots, which should be heavily O'Connor if valid (which also isn't a given).

So, yes, O'Connor has a theoretical path, but it's extremely unlikely he wins based on the outstanding ballots. What's probably more likely at this point (though still quite remote) is some sort of counting mistake that gets uncovered in the next couple days.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Guys, this is definitely a loss. No doubt about it. The average voter doesn't keep track of partisan lean, historical elections in the district, or any of that stuff. They sit down to watch Fox and see ' (R) beats (D)'. That's pretty much it. : /

The average voter doesn't watch Fox News, nor do they care about some random special House election. This will not impact anyone's November vote. Except for political junkies, this won't even be news outside of Ohio.

The patterns on the other hand, are indicative of what's to come.

[Tender Branson]

IIRC, Hillary was down 9% in OH on election day - but final results showed her down "only" 8% - because she won a huge share of the remaining provisionals/mail ballots.

Currently, Balderson is up 0.9% - so it is definitely possible that O'Connor will close the gap.

It just remains to be seen if there are enough valid votes left from the 8.500 remaining ballots.

I think half of them are usually thrown out, which complicates things for O'Connor.

I think the best he can do now is to go out to the media and encourage his (provisional) voters to show up with an ID at the county offices to make sure their ballots are counted ...

[TheSaint250]

"Green Party" is trending on Twitter lol

[Sestak]

"Green Party" is trending on Twitter lol

GDI it isn't even their fault.

[TheSaint250]

"Green Party" is trending on Twitter lol

GDI it isn't even their fault.

It's actually pretty sad to read the stuff on Twitter. It mainly centers on "How could anyone ever vote for the Green Party with so much to lose?!?!" to "The Green Party is entirely a Russian front" (Alyssa Milano has contributed to that last one).

[Doimper]

"Green Party" is trending on Twitter lol

GDI it isn't even their fault.

It's actually pretty sad to read the stuff on Twitter. It mainly centers on "How could anyone ever vote for the Green Party with so much to lose?!?!" to "The Green Party is entirely a Russian front" (Alyssa Milano has contributed to that last one).

They deserve it all.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, my dad still thinks O'Connor still has a chance and I told him that Balderson is winning the end.

[Matty]

.......does twitter understand this seat is literally up for grabs again in a few months? Only a miserable person chooses to melt over such an inconsequential election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Franklin was like only 30% of the results overall, that explains a lot...

[NOVA Green]

Lol, my dad still thinks O'Connor still has a chance and I told him that Balderson is winning the end.

Did you place any online bets with your old Man just like some of us might place on the Horse Tracks of  Scioto Downs in South Franklin?      

Personally if I were still a betting Man I would definitely bet that Balderson will win at the end as an "Odds Bet", but still I can see his perspective as well since if there is a 33% chance O'Connor might Win for example then in the event you lose he gets an extra gain....

Regardless, I'll try to pull a few numbers together tonight based upon the 99% of the Confirmed (Non-Provisional Vote)....

[Tekken_Guy]

My thoughts:

1. Kasich’s support seems to have helped Balderson minimize losses in Delaware County and get ED voting in his favor. The leftward swing would have been big and Balderson would have lost without Kasich’s support. Thus Balderson did slightly better in suburbs than Saccone.

2. O’Connor didn’t connect with blue collar voters the way Lamb did. I don’t think O’Connor won any precincts besides white-collar Columbus suburbs, minority areas, and colleges. Lamb got many rural precincts though.

3. It is a more politically neutral environment. Lamb’s race took place in the weeks following Parkland, that energized Dems to vote for gun control. Ossoff lost because the GOP rallied to the polls to show solidarity with Scalise after the baseball shooting.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, we needa learn how to take an L.

We are, this is visibly less painful for Atlas Democrats compared to the Ossoff loss a little over a year ago. It’s a lot easier to take it on the chin when we have so many indicators pointing to a favorable midterm environment and Republicans barely clinching a race that shouldn’t have been competitive. I think you’re overreacting a bit.

Bagel seems like he drinks too much caffeine and/or takes too much adderall around election time lol

I don't really see many people unable to accept a loss. I see a lot of people correctly stating or in some way acknowledging that losing by <1 point in a R+7 / T+11 and historically R district is not the same as a win but still informative that Ds are finally going to get a very good midterm and regain some power in DC. I also see the usual posters trying to move the goal posts and act as if this race is supposed to be competitive in the first place.

I've never had dexies or pep pills, and I have not intentionally drank caffeine for over 3 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EZb4u5DXko

[Adam Griffin]

Wow, Franklin was like only 30% of the results overall, that explains a lot...

It was 35%; considerably above what it is in normal elections.

[Rookie Yinzer]

.......does twitter understand this seat is literally up for grabs again in a few months? Only a miserable person chooses to melt over such an inconsequential election.

No. The reality is most people are idiots who don't think past what they see right in front of their face.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1027064671906525184

[NOVA Green]

Here is a graph of Franklin County Votes in the 2012, 2016 PRES elections, with the Final "Non-Provisional" numbers...



Obviously you can't blame the Green Party on anything in their heartlands of Franklin County.... You can't blame the Democrats in the Franklin County portion of the District that was (51-47 D) in 2012 and (57-38 D) in 2016, AND (65-35 D) in 2018....

You can't even blame the Indies or Swing Pubbies on this either.

So what a +34% D swing between '12 PRES to '18 CD-12???

I don't necessarily give a rat's a$$ about this particular election, but big picture seems to indicate that Franklin County in the Trump era is turning into a massive DEM vote bank, even in their most favorable portions of the County....

[TheSaint250]

"Green Party" is trending on Twitter lol

GDI it isn't even their fault.

It's actually pretty sad to read the stuff on Twitter. It mainly centers on "How could anyone ever vote for the Green Party with so much to lose?!?!" to "The Green Party is entirely a Russian front" (Alyssa Milano has contributed to that last one).

They deserve it all.

No, those voters don't "deserve it all."

Especially since, as of now, the margin is higher than Manchik's total.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, Franklin was like only 30% of the results overall, that explains a lot...

It was 35%; considerably above what it is in normal elections.

Oh oops, sorry you are right, my mental math is rusty, ignore my previous post.