Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Some rebels are already heading toward Ajdabiya.

Yes - see this is exactly what will happen, now the mob will advance again

Yes, and speaking about that, the number 2 of rebel forces told a French reporter that they would need more weapons to fight against Gaddafi forces, and they launch a call for it toward countries helping them, in the same way they launched a call for what's happening, and lots of reports say people around the country are glad of it. This in order to help Libyans getting rid of this violent regime and to live the way they want. Seems so far, in at least the big majority of the country, the way they want is without the guy that maintained them under a violent regime during more than 40 years, and who recently bombed the cities of its country, and used other things like snipers, mercenaries, etc.

I wonder how legally it can happen if more weapons are effectively needed, in case Gaddafi forces continue to support the leader more than the population. Maybe it can just be discretely done.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, and, apparently, once a lot of people had left Libya during that now lasting conflict, Gaddafi, would have called...Russia and China...to promise them trade contracts.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Regime just announces ceasefire.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Regime just announces ceasefire.

As someone pointed out somewhere else. The call for a cease fire come from a spokesman of the army, not of the regime, dunno if it would have some importance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Didn't Gadaffi already call a "ceasefire" and just ignore it? I don't think anyone will trust him.

[afleitch]

Opebo, any post from now on that I catch where you go into hyperbole and basically satire your own views will be deleted on sight.

k.

[Frodo]

I am probably premature in asking this question, but nonetheless it needs to be asked:

In the event that Gaddafi is deposed and either executed by his people or exiled to Venezuela, what is the likelihood that Libya will be divided back into its precolonial parts: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica? 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I am probably premature in asking this question, but nonetheless it needs to be asked:

In the event that Gaddafi is deposed and either executed by his people or exiled to Venezuela, what is the likelihood that Libya will be divided back into its precolonial parts: Tripolitania and Cyrenaica? 

I only see that likely if there is a long civil war in Libya, which in turn is dependent upon the circumstances at the time Gaddafi is removed from the scene.

[J. J.]

Here is the military breakdown on Libya: 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/army-equip.htm

I think it will be difficult to win this, or protect the rebels, from the air.

Also, Qaddafi has a decentralized command; there can be independent functioning.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here is the military breakdown on Libya: 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/army-equip.htm

I think it will be difficult to win this, or protect the rebels, from the air.

Also, Qaddafi has a decentralized command; there can be independent functioning.

He likely hoped to excuse his breaking of the ceasefire on rogue commanders.

As for Gaddafi's forces, Saddam had more than that.  The sole fly in the ointment might be the T-90's with their reactive armor, but I have to wonder if Libya has gotten them yet, as they were just ordered last year.  Even so, I don't think that by themselves, they will help Gaddafi that much now that he has lost control of the skies.  Air power can't take territory by itself, but it sure can destroy the opponent's ability to so do.

This could still turn into an ugly little guerrilla war, but the territory held by the TNC is safe from being overrun.

[Bull Moose Base]

The most likely scenario seems to be akin to Iraq in the 90s.  Qaddafi still in power but ability to massacre rebellious regions checked.  As we know that's not competely stable.

[J. J.]

Here is the military breakdown on Libya: 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/army-equip.htm

I think it will be difficult to win this, or protect the rebels, from the air.

Also, Qaddafi has a decentralized command; there can be independent functioning.

He likely hoped to excuse his breaking of the ceasefire on rogue commanders.

As for Gaddafi's forces, Saddam had more than that.  The sole fly in the ointment might be the T-90's with their reactive armor, but I have to wonder if Libya has gotten them yet, as they were just ordered last year.  Even so, I don't think that by themselves, they will help Gaddafi that much now that he has lost control of the skies.  Air power can't take territory by itself, but it sure can destroy the opponent's ability to so do.

This could still turn into an ugly little guerrilla war, but the territory held by the TNC is safe from being overrun.

Some, like the T-62's might have been retrofitted with reactive armor.  Saddam had more, in 1991, but it wasn't retro-fitted and nothing as advanced the T-90's.  The coalition also had more aircraft and 6 weeks of bombing.

Do the French/British have any ground attach aircraft like the A-10?

[Lief 🗽]

http://twitter.com/#!/ShababLibya/statuses/49622494138736640

One of the Colonel's sons (Khamis Gaddafi) is reported to have been killed.

[Silent Hunter]

Do the French/British have any ground attach aircraft like the A-10?

Not specifically like that, no. However, the Tornado GR4 can be used in that role.

[Tender Branson]

Reminds me of:

[patrick1]

Here is the military breakdown on Libya: 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/army-equip.htm

I think it will be difficult to win this, or protect the rebels, from the air.

Also, Qaddafi has a decentralized command; there can be independent functioning.

He likely hoped to excuse his breaking of the ceasefire on rogue commanders.

As for Gaddafi's forces, Saddam had more than that.  The sole fly in the ointment might be the T-90's with their reactive armor, but I have to wonder if Libya has gotten them yet, as they were just ordered last year.  Even so, I don't think that by themselves, they will help Gaddafi that much now that he has lost control of the skies.  Air power can't take territory by itself, but it sure can destroy the opponent's ability to so do.

This could still turn into an ugly little guerrilla war, but the territory held by the TNC is safe from being overrun.

Some, like the T-62's might have been retrofitted with reactive armor.  Saddam had more, in 1991, but it wasn't retro-fitted and nothing as advanced the T-90's.  The coalition also had more aircraft and 6 weeks of bombing.

Do the French/British have any ground attach aircraft like the A-10?

Reactive armor isnt much help against a JDAM.

[J. J.]

Here is the military breakdown on Libya: 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/army-equip.htm

I think it will be difficult to win this, or protect the rebels, from the air.

Also, Qaddafi has a decentralized command; there can be independent functioning.

He likely hoped to excuse his breaking of the ceasefire on rogue commanders.

As for Gaddafi's forces, Saddam had more than that.  The sole fly in the ointment might be the T-90's with their reactive armor, but I have to wonder if Libya has gotten them yet, as they were just ordered last year.  Even so, I don't think that by themselves, they will help Gaddafi that much now that he has lost control of the skies.  Air power can't take territory by itself, but it sure can destroy the opponent's ability to so do.

This could still turn into an ugly little guerrilla war, but the territory held by the TNC is safe from being overrun.

Some, like the T-62's might have been retrofitted with reactive armor.  Saddam had more, in 1991, but it wasn't retro-fitted and nothing as advanced the T-90's.  The coalition also had more aircraft and 6 weeks of bombing.

Do the French/British have any ground attach aircraft like the A-10?

Reactive armor isnt much help against a JDAM.

It is, if you miss it, or don't target it, from the air.  The second one is the key.

[patrick1]

^I haven't seen anyone suggest that we send in ground troops. If Qaddafi's forces tried to make a massive movement of armored assets they would be annihilated from the air.

[opebo]

Opebo, any post from now on that I catch where you go into hyperbole and basically satire your own views will be deleted on sight.

k.

I ask that you please clarify for me, afleitch.  I have never engaged in any hyperbole, but merely an honest, direct, and succinct explanation of my views on the civil war and the intervention by outside powers.  Am I not then allowed to express the opinion that the intervention is imperialist,  or any support for the Gaddafi government? 

There are numerous posts engaging in hyperbole in support of the other side of the civil war, and you have not objected to them.  Your stance seems to be to disallow any criticism of the intervention or any approbation of Gaddafi's government.

[Bull Moose Base]

I sorta second opebo's gripe and think self-parody is healthy.  Which reminds me: What gives Libya the moral right to not be invaded by us again?  Because Qaddafi controls territory by force he's immune to someone stronger taking it over?  That said, we don't know that Qaddafi's overthrow would be good for containing the threat of radical Islamists, we're getting in too late and our military is already stretched.  Better if Egypt and Tunisian militaries intervened.  Not that they would.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Egypt has already given quite a bit of weapons to the rebels and their special forces have been sighted in rebel regions including the elite Unit 777.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Egypt has already given quite a bit of weapons to the rebels and their special forces have been sighted in rebel regions including the elite Unit 777.

If Mubarek was in power maybe they'd do more......so we could do less?

[J. J.]

^I haven't seen anyone suggest that we send in ground troops. If Qaddafi's forces tried to make a massive movement of armored assets they would be annihilated from the air.

Easier said than done, and it wouldn't have to be a mass movement.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Egypt has already given quite a bit of weapons to the rebels and their special forces have been sighted in rebel regions including the elite Unit 777.

If Mubarek was in power maybe they'd do more......so we could do less?

I don't think it makes a difference in any way if Mubarak was in power or not. Any government in Egypt would want Gadaffi gone.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So after barely two days of operations the allies are already starting to fight over what to do. That's so pathetic... The rebels have so far failed to retake any city, and it's hard to see how they can. And meanwhile, everyone acts outraged because "OMG, the coalition is bombing Gaddafi's forces and not just doing a no-fly zone ! Ccandal !!". Gaddafi must be kicked out unless we want a permanent civil war lasting for the next decade, new slaughters, new oppression, and a ridiculized western diplomacy. If it requires bombing Gaddafi's forces, it must be done. If it requires a terrestrial intervention, it must be done too. Any other attitude would be delusion.