2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[IceSpear]

NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

Read that as Pizza (Reform)

[IceSpear]

PA-10: Perry (R) +3

Perry 49
Scott 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-perry-in-close-contest-with-democrat-scott/1560816650

Pretty good poll for Dems.

[IceSpear]

UT-04

https://kutv.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-4th-congressional-district-race-between-love-mcadams-widens-by-6-points

McAdams (D): 49.51%
Love (R): 43.05%

Not only decimals, but 2 decimal places!

It has McAdams winning independents by 80 points, lol. Not a typo. It also has Romney +15 in the district which seems...off.

[IceSpear]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

If this is even remotely accurate, it's gonna be an ugly night for the GOP.

[IceSpear]

RED ALERT! FAKE POLLING COMPANY JAYHAWK CONSULTING IS BACK!

I have a history with these guys. They released a KS-01 poll in late 2014 showing Huelskamp (R) losing by 7 points. He ended up winning by 36 points, an astounding 43 point miss. You'd think this obviously fake polling company would slink away with their tail between their legs after this...and it seems they did for a while. But now they're back. In KS-01 again. And you'll never guess what their "poll" showed!

Marshall (R) 42
LaPolice (D) 38

http://www.hutchnews.com/news/20181030/polling-done-for-becker-in-marshall-lapolice-race

And here's the original thread from 2014:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201476.0

[IceSpear]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

[IceSpear]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

Why did they surge in 2006 but not this year? I get that Democrats hate Trump more than Bush, but overall, conditions were still more unfavorable for the GOP in 2006 than this year.

Part of the change is dems have a much more reliable group in their coalition now: strong support from college educated whites.

Good point, yeah. I guess that explains part of it.

The Dems' lead was a lot gaudier in 2006 than it is now, so simply political gravity re-asserting itself I would assume.

[IceSpear]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

Now would be a good time for Barb to drop some of that vaunted oppo research.

[IceSpear]

ABC / WaPo (10/29 - 11/1)
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 44%

Mixed bag here. D+7 is pretty good, but it's a noticable decline from their previous D+11 poll. Also, you've gotta love the hedging in their headline:

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Brave.

[IceSpear]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

Dems will easily take the House at D+8. I think hoping they get it into double digits is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

[IceSpear]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

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They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

It is amazing how biased towards Republicans the general media is. If it was R+8, they would be writing the political obituary for house Democrats and Nancy Pelosi. I am serious, switch the positions. No one would be talking about the 15-20% chance Democrats have at holding the house.

They still have PTSD from 2016. They've been overrating Republicans in general all cycle due to overcompensation/overcorrection.

[IceSpear]

It would be nice if it were somewhat higher than D+8. Hopefully we will get some other GCB live phone polls showing it higher. D+8 is too close for any real comfort.

No it isn’t. JC guys I get gerrymandering I’d bad but 8 is nowhere near the danger zone

It is well within the danger zone where with a little bit of polling error going the wrong way, Rs could hold the House.

Also, even with D+8, a number of Senate races have potential to break to the Rs. It would be better if that did not happen.

One good thing in this poll, however, is it seems like Trump approval is only 40%. That will probably influence undecideds to some degree.

It's 40% among adults, which is irrelevant. The RV numbers seem to be converging with the generic ballot number, which is unsurprising.

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[IceSpear]

Polling error towards the party in power seems like a remote possibility.

It happened in 2006, 2010, and 2012, so I wouldn't call that remote.

[IceSpear]

Polling error towards the party in power seems like a remote possibility.

It happened in 2006, 2010, and 2012, so I wouldn't call that remote.

Not really what happened in 2006 or 2010, just looking at an RCP average does not really tell a complete story.

How would you measure it then? We're discussing the generic ballot here, so it only makes sense to compare previous generic ballot averages to the end results.

[IceSpear]

Polling error towards the party in power seems like a remote possibility.

It happened in 2006, 2010, and 2012, so I wouldn't call that remote.

Not really what happened in 2006 or 2010, just looking at an RCP average does not really tell a complete story.

How would you measure it then? We're discussing the generic ballot here, so it only makes sense to compare previous generic ballot averages to the end results.

in 2010 for example you had a lot fewer generic ballot polls, and Rasmusssem (lol) and Gallup were showing consistently high numbers for the GOP while almost everyone else had more realistic numbers (around 6 points) that ended up close to the real result. Not sure I would call that systemic polling error.

That's true. I do think people are also underrating the possibility that there isn't a massive error in either direction. But I can understand why considering that hasn't happened in a while.

[IceSpear]

That WaPo poll was D+13 in October. That is worrying.

Reading into it, basically they've solidified rural voters.

Who could've seen that one coming?

[IceSpear]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.

People are having a hard time coping with the fact that the megagigaultratidalwave they've all been expecting might not happen.

[IceSpear]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.

People are having a hard time coping with the fact that the megagigaultratidalwave they've all been expecting might not happen.

It's well-documented that Democrats are terrible at the expectations game.

One need look no further than this forum to prove that truism, lol.

[IceSpear]

Lol!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032

And this is what many Atlas posters are having fainting spells about. You people are utterly ridiculous.

[IceSpear]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

there's a good chance Kaine got 60% in VA-10, he got in the low to mid 60s in Fairfax, PW and Loudoun and I don't know if the shenandoah #s was enough to offset it.

Anyway I knew Comstock was toast but here I was thinking that the 5 million the CLF burnt would atleast bring her margin to maybe 10 points.

The fact that both parties lit millions of dollars on fire here was a case study in political malpractice. Comstock would've lost even in a Dem ripple.

[IceSpear]

So much for the piping hot takes that Democrats needed to win the PV by double digits to take the House, lol.

God, the #analysis from the pundits is so terrible.

[IceSpear]

Rasmussen publishes a pathetic defense of their GCB results: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2018/how_we_did_and_why_we_did_it.  Summary:

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Will they fix their junky Trump approval poll too now?

[IceSpear]

Is this thread really a necessary sticky at this point? I doubt we're going to be getting very many generic ballot or House polls for the next while, much less ones worth actual discussion.

[IceSpear]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

[IceSpear]

Though it's worth mentioning that if the trend of Dems way overperforming in special elections holds it could be a potential longshot. Just look at the results in KS-04 and SC-05 special elections vs. the general elections. Would almost certainly be a part term rental even if they did win it though.

Is the trend holding though? The GOP has already picked up three of four state legislative seats, including a Clinton seat in Connecticut.

Not sure, there were quite a few state legislative special elections where the GOP did surprisingly well in 2017-2018, right? I'd say right now it's inconclusive due to the small sample size, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if the trend stopped or even reversed.