2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Then we have some Southern States

Karnataka
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP+                  53.8%          26
INC-JD(S)           41.9%           2
UPP                     0.3%            0
SDPI                   0.1%            0

In 2014 it was
                       Vote share     Seats
BJP                     43.4%         17
INC                    41.2%           9
JD(S)-SDPI         11.2%           2

The BJP backed an INC rebel in one of the seats that INC gave to JD(S).  The INC-JD(S) alliance clearly did not work on ground plus the Modi wave have the BJP a landslide.


AP
                             Vote share     Seats
YSRCP                       49.9%         22
TDP                           40.2%          3
JSP-BSP-CPI-CPM         6.3%          0
INC                             1.3%          0
BJP                             1.1%          0

In 2014 it was

                      Vote share     Seats
TDP-BJP              48.0%        17 (backed by JSP)
YSRCP                45.7%          8
INC                      2.9%          0

A swing toward YSRCP lead to a large landslide in terms of seats.  JSP fell flat and failed to split the anti-TDP vote as TDP had hoped.  INC and BJP irrelevant for now.  


Telangana

                      Vote share     Seats
TRS                   41.7%           9
INC                    29.8%          3
BJP                    19.7%           4
JSP-BSP              0.7%           0
CPI-CPM              0.9%           0
AIMIM                 2.8%           1

In 2014 it was

                      Vote share     Seats
TRS                    35.0%        11
INC-CPI              25.7%         2
TDP-BJP              22.8%         2 (backed by JSP)
YSRCP                  4.5%         1
BSP                      1.2%         0
AIMIM                   3.5%        1

TDP has dropped out of Telangana and backed INC while YSRCP has dropped out of Telangana and backed TRS since 2014.  The INC and BJP performance was surprising as everyone had expected a TRS sweep.  It seems there were significant amount of anti-TRS tactical that helped both INC and BJP.  JSP which is more of a AP party was nowhere here.

[jaichind]

The we have the Deep South states

Kerala
                                       Vote share     Seats
INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP          47.5%         19
Left Front                            35.3%           1
BJP-BDJS-KEC(T)                 15.6%           0

In 2014 it was

                                            Vote share    Seats
INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP-SJD        42.5%         12
Left Front                                 41.6%           8
BJP-KEC(N)-RSP(B)                   10.9%           0

There had been an expectation of a BJP surged that would eat into both the INC led bloc as well as the Left Front.  In the end NDA merely matched the 2016 assembly election results of 15.0% and failed to win a seat while a swing toward the INC led to a near sweep for the INC-IMUL-KEC(M)-RSP bloc.  INC did a good job of getting KEC(M) back into the alliance which merely added to the landslide.

TN
                                                                       Vote share    Seats
DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-MDMK-KMDK-IJK         53.3%       37
AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK-PT-TMC-PNK                       30.7%        1
AMMK-SDPI                                                             5.3%        0
MNM                                                                       3.8%        0
NTK                                                                        3.9%

Back in 2014 it was

                                                                       Vote share    Seats
AIADMK                                                                 44.9%      37
DMK-VCK-PT-MKK-IMUL                                           27.2%       0
BJP-DMDK-PMK-MDMK-PNK-KMDK-IJK                      18.8%       2
INC                                                                         4.4%       0
CPI-CPM                                                                  1.1%       0

Due to the toxic brand of the BJP the DMK led bloc swept to victory.  AIADMK splinter AMMK ended up with a lot less support than expected but its failure to cut into the AIADMK vote did not stop the DMK-INC bloc sweep given the direct swing away from the AIADMK-BJP bloc.  The new center-left MNM also did a bit worse than expected although Tamil nationalist NTK did fairly well.

Note that in TN the seat of Vellore where it is UPA's DMK vs NDA's PNK had the election halted due to the suspicion of vote buying.  The vote will be held later.

It is clear that in Kerala and TN there was a vote against Modi which produce massive landslides for the UPA in the Deep South.  Maybe Rahul Gandhi can try to run for the PM of Dravidia Nadu

[jaichind]

My computation of the all-India vote share are

NDA       45.35%
 BJP          37.77%
 SHS          2.08% (Maharashtra)
 JD(U)        1.47% (Bihar)
 AIADMK    1.23% (TN)
 SAD          0.62% (Punjab)
 LJP           0.53% (Bihar)
 PMK          0.38% (TN)
 AGP          0.24% (Assam)
 AD(S)       0.17% (UP)
 DMDK       0.15% (TN)
 Others      0.72%

UPA       27.09%
 INC         19.70%
 DMK         1.89% (TN)
 NCP          1.38% (Maharashtra)
 RJD          1.03% (Bihar)
 JD(S)       0.56% (Karnataka)
 JMM         0.31% (Jharkhand and Odisha)
 IMUL        0.26% (TN and Kerala)
 RLSP        0.24% (Bihar)
 CPI          0.18% (TN and Odisha)
 CPM         0.17% (TN and Odisha)
 VCK         0.17% (TN)
 HAM         0.16% (Bihar)
 Others      1.04%

For UPA do not count tactical allies like RJD in Jharkhand, CPI(ML) in Bihar, and JKN in J&K which adds up to 0.13% (CPI(ML) in Bihar 0.07% JKN in J&K 0.02% and RJD in Jharkhand 0.05%).  This means the sum of all UPA backed candidate vote share are 27.22%


BSP Bloc  6.97%  
 BSP          3.67%
 SP            2.57% (UP and MP)
 JSP           0.32% (AP and Telangana)
 RLD          0.26% (UP)
 Others      0.15% (includes CPI CPM when running with BSP in AP and Punjab)

AAP Bloc  0.54%
 AAP          0.44% (Punjab Haryana Delhi Goa, A&N, and Chandigarh)
 JJP           0.10% (Haryana)

AITC       4.11% (WB, Asasm, Jharkhand, and Tripura)
YSRCP    2.56% (AP)
Left        2.21% (CPI CPM CPI(ML) RSP AIFB not running with another front(like BSP or UPA))
TDP        2.06% (AP)
BJD        1.67% (Odisha)
TRS        1.27% (Telangana)
VBA        0.62% (Maharashtra)
AMMK     0.36% (TN and Pondicherry)
NTK        0.27% (TN and Pondicherry)
NMN       0.27% (TN and Pondicherry)
AIUDF    0.23% (Assam)
AIMIM    0.20% (Telangana Bihar and Maharastra)

Besides the obvious BJP surge, the Left and AAP vote has dropped a lot since 2014

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi offers to step down as INC leader which was rejected by the CWC which is INC's highest body. But a couple of days later Rahul Gandhi insists on stepping down and seems to be supported by his mother Sonia and sister Priyanka.

In separate news new AP CM and YSRCP leader Jagan Reddy is looking to align with BJP after the elections where he captured the majority of Muslim Christian and Dalit votes.  The main motivation besides the need for federal funds is of course that right now TDP has taken a pro-INC position.  Of course YSRCP's condition would be special status (aka lots of extra money) for AP.  Not sure how BJP/Modi will respond but I think they are unlikely to give in on that demand. 

[jaichind]

J&K results which because of vast differences in turnout between Jammu and Kashmir I broke up into Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh.

Kashmir
                 Vote share     Seats
JKN               37.1%          3  (tactical alliance with INC)
PDP               16.0%          0
INC                 9.0%          0 (tactical alliance with JKN)
BJP                 3.0%          0
JKNPP             0.7%          0 (Muslim Leftist-Progressive)
JKPC             17.7%          0 (Separatists)
AIP               13.5%          0 (Lean Separatism)

In 2014 it was
                 Vote share     Seats
PDP              46.9%          3
JKN              34.9%          0 (backed by INC)
INC rebel       1.4%           0
BJP               1.4%           0
JKNPP           0.8%           0
JKPC             6.3%           0
AIP               1.9%           0
BSP              0.6%           0

Clear move away from PDP given the now failed PDP-BJP alliance after the 2014 assembly election.  Also a clear shift toward radicalization with a large vote share for separatists parties while JKN is clearly in a strong position.


Ladakh
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP               34.2%           1
INC               16.9%           0
ISK               25.5%           0  (Muslim based and backed by both PDP and JKN)
INC rebel      23.4%            0  (Muslim)

Back in 2014 it was
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP               26.6%           1
INC               22.6%           0 (backed by JKN)
ISK               24.2%           0  (Muslim based and backed by PDP)
INC rebel      26.6%            0  (Muslim)

Despite the Buddhist BJP incumbent MP breaking with BJP and retiring from politics the BJP was able to consolidate the Buddhist-Hindu vote to win beating the divided Mulsim field.


Jammu
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 59.7%          2
DSSP               1.0%           0  (BJP splinter)
INC                34.8%           0  (backed by both JKN and PDP)
JKNPP              1.1%           0
BSP                 1.2%           0

Back in 2014 it was
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 48.6%          2
INC                 34.6%          0 (backed by JKN)
PDP                   8.7%         0
JKNPP               1.5%          0
BSP                  2.1%          0

Just like the rest of Hindi Hindu majority states there was a large swing toward the BJP with significant Hindu consolidation for the BJP.

What would be interesting would be what takes place in assembly elections that will most likely take place later this year.  Going by these results as JKN-INC alliance should be able to win a majority by sweeping Kashmir, fighting BJP to a draw in  Ladakh, and while BJP will sweep Jammu the Muslim pocket districts in Jammu will go JKN-INC.  I suspect the separatist vote will decline in Kashmir as turnout rises since turnout for LS polls for Kashmir has been low for a while but the turnout for assembly elections are significantly higher.

[jaichind]

would Rahul be succeeded by Priyanka or will they give someone outside the dynasty a go?

I think in the end Rahul Gandhi will stay but will move out key leaders to consolidate his power so he has more of a free hand to change strategy.  Yes, if Rahul is out then the main pressure will be for Priyanka  to take over although I do not see the point.  Rahul going would be saying that the Gandhi dynasty has failed and could not lead INC to a revival.  If so Priyanka is also from the Gandhi dynasty as well so there is no point putting her in charge.

[jaichind]

Nearly 50 per cent MPs in new Lok Sabha have criminal records

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/50-per-cent-mps-new-lok-sabha-criminal-records-1534465-2019-05-25

Out of the 539 winners analysed in Lok Sabha election 2019, 233 MPs have declared criminal cases against themselves

It seems 159 has serious criminal case (rape, murder, terrorism etc etc)


300 out of 542 winners are first time MPs.  The BJP aggressively swap out a good number of its candidates leading to this large number.

[jaichind]

Number of criminal MPs increasing over time. Same with those with serious cases (murder rape etc etc)

[jaichind]

What would be the best possible electoral result if you support continued Indian economic reform?

Analyzing Narendra Modi's performance on the Indian economy

On paper it would be a solid majority for NDA.  I still feel Modi being out and having someone else from the BJP as PM would be better.  This demonetization was a disaster and all this fake economic data scandals all seems to be ways to cover up the impact of demonetization which continues to today.  An alternative would be a solid majority for UPA although while I do think Rahul Gandhi have matured as a campaigner this election cycle I think it would be a mistake to make him PM this election cycle.  

What do you think of the likelihood of Modi going through with these reforms now that he has won such a huge mandate?

I doubt it.  I think from the grassroots point of view "Reforms" are not things listed in that link.  That list would be what investment community want.  Reforms from the grassroots are really development like electrification and toilets.   I suspect that NDA would end up focusing on those than neo-liberal reforms that I would be for.

[jaichind]

Is there a single other political party in the world which is so resistant to having their leader resign after he leads them to two of their worst performances ever? I just don't understand the INC's strategy moving forward beyond just hoping that Modi eventually trips up.

Just to be fair. In 2014 Rahul Gandhi was not the President of INC.  He only took place in late 2017.  Despite the results his performance in the LS elections was fairly credible when compared to his performance as a campaigner in 2014.  Main issue of removing him is that without the Gandhi clan the INC would just devolve into various state level local parties.  Perhaps that might be the right way forward as NCP is now stronger than INC in Maharashtra, YSRCP is very strong in AP and AITC despite the BJP surge is fairly strong in WB.  Still for anyone that wanted a national party like INC to exist there might be no alternative to Gandhi clan. 

[jaichind]

Bloomberg quint had their post-election analysis of UP and came up with vote share based on community





Which puts the vote share by community at
                                     
                                      NDA                SP-BSP-RLD                  INC
                             2014          2019    2014          2019       2014        2019
Upper Caste              77            85         7               10           9             5
Jat                           77            55       13               30           10            5
Non-Yadav OBC         60            75       25               15            8            5
Yadav                       27            20       60               70            8            5
Jatav                        15            20       75               10           2             5
Non-Jatav Dalit          45            60      40               25            4            5
Muslim                      10           10       76               75          11          10
Total                         43            50      43               39            8            6

So BJP won the battle for the Non-Yadav OBC and Non-Jatav Dalit vote and won the election.  One thing about this analysis that seems off are the Muslim vote.  In 2014 this analysis has the 3 main blocs with 97% of the Muslim vote and in 2019 95% of the Muslim vote.  That seems off.  In 2014 Muslim parties like PECP and RUC won around 0.7% of the vote or around 7% of the Muslim vote.  In 2019 RUC did not run and PECP could not even get to 0.1% of the vote.  So the Muslim vote is much more concentrated in 2019 than 2014.  This analysis seems to show the opposite which is clearly wrong.  Still the marco picture is clear: INC failed in its battle to capture the Upper Caste vote (which is the whole point of running separately), SP failed in its battle to capture to non-Yadav OBC vote and BSP and INC failed in its battle to capture the non-Jatav Dalits. 

[jaichind]

2019 Odisha assembly election

                                     Vote share            Seats
BJD                                    45.2%               112
BJP                                    32.8%                23
INC-JMM-CPI-CPM               17.2%                10
INC rebel                                                       1
BSP                                    0.8%                   0

BJP gained a lot in vote share but not much in seats relative to 2014.  INC lost a lot of vote share but did not lose that much in terms of seats relative to 2014.

election not held in 1 seat due to death of BJD candidate.  See for background

https://www.outlookindia.com/blog/story/india-news-naveen-patnaik-exposed-why-odisha-cm-fielded-an-82-year-old-icu-patie/4080

Is a very interesting story of political battle in Odisha between two rivals.  It involves Biju Patnaik who was the leader of JD in Odisha which was the main rival to INC in the 1970s to 1990s.
  

After Biju Patnaik passed away his son Naveen Patnaik split the JD and formed BJD and formed an alliance with BJP


A key Biju Patnaik lieutenant which helped Naveen Patnaik from BJD was Bijoy Mohapatra who as a result had great influence within BJD and worked with Naveen Patnaik win the LS elections in 1998 and 1999 with their alliance with BJP over INC.   Bijoy Mohapatra had been an MLA from Patkura since 1980 and had already won in 1980 1985 1990 and 1995.


By 2000 it was clear that BJD-BJP was poised to win the Odisha assembly election.  Bijoy Mohapatra was the head of the BJD political committee in charge of handing out tickets.  But on the day when the deadline Naveen Patnaik who decided that he did not want to share power with Bijoy Mohapatra expelled him from the party and invalided his BJD ticket.  It was too late for Bijoy Mohapatra to file as an independent Patkura.  Instead he backed a AITC candidate Trilochan Behera who was a tribal leader and shifted his local base over to him.  Trilochan Behera went on to win with Bijoy Mohapatra's support.  But  Naveen Patnaik had another card to play.  After the elections when BJD-BJP came to power with Naveen Patnaik as CM he was able to, using his resource as the CM, to get Trilochan Behera to defect over to BJD and removing a political proxy for Bijoy Mohapatra.  

The main goal for Naveen Patnaik  going forward is to deny Bijoy Mohapatra to get elected as a MLA since given the connections that Bijoy Mohapatra had with various BJD MLAs he could make a lot of trouble for  Naveen Patnaik.  Bijoy Mohapatra went on to form OGP and formed an alliance with INC in 2004 and was narrowly defeated in Patkura by the BJD with Naveen Patnaik  throwing in vast resources to the district to ensure his defeat.

For the 2009 assembly elections Bijoy Mohapatra had merged his OGP with NCP but with BJD-BJP alliance breaking up the NCP choose to form an alliance with BJD.  In anger Bijoy Mohapatra joined BJP and ran again in Patkura but was defeated given the negative sentiment against the BJP in Odisha.

For 2014 Bijoy Mohapatra switched over to Mahakalapada to run as the BJP candidate and was again defeated as while the BJP support rose it was still a BJD landslide year.

For 2019 Bijoy Mohapatra switched back to Patkura run for BJP.   Naveen Patnaik insisted on nominating the 82 year BJD incumbent  Bed Prakash Agrawalla who was gravely ill.  The Agrawalla family begged Naveen Patnaik to not insist on Bed Prakash Agrawalla and suggested that his wife or son run instead.  Naveen Patnaik refused which confused many.  Bed Prakash Agrawalla was so ill that it took lot of effort for him to even file his papers and it would be impossible for him to campaign.  

Naveen Patnaik's strategy became clear Bed Prakash Agrawalla passed away a few days ago.  Due to the death of the a candidate the election for Patkura was halted until the BJD can come up with another candidate and the election will be held months after the assembly election.  It is now clear that given the fact that the BJP is much stronger in 2019 than in 2014 that Naveen Patnaik did not feel confident that he can keep Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  So with a ploy of a candidate on his deathbed followed by a death during the election he was able to stop Bijoy Mohapatra from getting into the Odisha assembly.  Naveen Patnaik's plan must be, win the 2019 assembly election, most likely narrowly, and then when the Patkura election takes place month later he can use the honeymoon period of his renewed mandate and all to resources of the state government to throw into the election to stop  Bijoy Mohapatra from winning.  What a ploy.  Genius.

Back in 2014 assembly the result was

2014 Orissa assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC          147                10            26.04%

INC rebel                         1              2.25%

AOP            76                 0              1.03%

BJD          147              117            43.91%
 
BJD rebel                         1              0.87%

SKD           51                  1              0.41% (BJD tribal rebel)

BJP           147               16            18.22%
 
SAMO        44                  1              0.90% (CPM was part of CPI+)
  
JMM           13                 0              1.04%

BSP          113                 0              0.87%

AAP          106                 0              0.61%

[jaichind]

Tiny (population wise)  Northeast Arunachal Pradesh had assembly elections in addition to LS elections

Arunachal Pradesh LS elections

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 60.0%         2 (backed by JD(U))
INC                 21.1%         0
INC rebel           1.8%        0
JD(S)                9.1%         0
NPP                  4.2%         0 (pro-BJP NCP splinter, on and off ally of BJP in the Northeast)
PPA                  4.3%         0  (INC splinter but pro-BJP)

Back in 2014 it was

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                46.6%          1
INC                41.7%          1
PPA                  8.0%          0
AITC                1.5%          0
NCP                 1.0%          0


Arunachal Pradesh assembly elections

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP                 51.4%       41
INC                 17.0%        4 (tactical alliance with NPP)
INC rebel                           1
NPP                14.7%         5 (tactical alliance with INC)
JD(U)              10.0%         7
JD(S)                2.2%         0
PPA                  1.7%         1
PPA rebel                           1

Back in 2014 INC actually swept the assembly elections but then the entire INC party in 2016 defected to PPA and then most of the MLAs defected to BJP for the BJP to form the government.  So in many ways the 2019 BJP at the state level is really the 2014 INC at the state level. 

Just like Odisha we see the BJP doing better in the LS elections than assembly held at the same time but part of that has to do with the JD(U) which backed the BJP in the LS election but ran separately in the assembly elections.

[jaichind]

"Congress in disarray as Rahul insists on stepping down"

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/congress-in-disarray-as-rahul-insists-on-stepping-down/article27268440.ece

It seems Rahul Gandhi is pretty adamant on stepping down.  There are already rumors that the INC's CWC (Congress Working Committee) seeing Rahul Gandhi's insistence is starting a search for a new leader.   

[jaichind]

Back to my topic of key role of languages.  

2014 BJP surge was a Hindi one
 


2019 was one an Indo-Aryan one




NDA/BJP performance by state type (Hindi, Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Dravidian, Sino-Tibetian) where I count Kannada as Indo-Aryan vs Dravidian given its level of  Sanskritisation

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  56.9%  60.4%  61.8%  37.8%  39.6%  89.3%  90.2%
Indo-Aryan   18.0%  28.2%  42.2%  47.6%  44.2%  33.5%  53.4%  68.0%
Sino-Tibetian  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  22.2%  66.7%  22.2%  44.4%  66.7%
Dravidian       1.0%    0.0%  33.3%  60.2%    6.8%    0.0%  21.4%    4.9%
Total            23.1%  34.3%  47.3%  55.4%  34.8%  29.5%  62.1%   65.2%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi            38.7%  52.4%  54.2%  49.8%  34.7%  28.0%  84.4%  78.7%
Indo-Aryan   16.0%  20.9%  25.7%  28.6%  28.2%  25.7%  42.2%  57.8%
Sino-Tibetian  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%   0.0%   22.2%   0.0%  11.1%  33.3%
Dravidian       1.0%    0.0%    6.8%  10.7%    0.0%   0.0%    3.9%   3.9%
Total            22.3%  29.7%  33.5%  33.5%  25.4%  21.4%  51.9%  55.8%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             0.0%    4.4%    6.2%   12.0%    3.1%   11.6%   4.9%  11.6%
Indo-Aryan    2.0%    7.3%   16.5%  18.9%   16.0%    7.8%  11.2%  10.2%
Sino-Tibetian 0.0%    0.0%     0.0%   22.2%  44.4%   22.2%  33.3% 33.3%
Dravidian      0.0%    0.0%   26.2%   49.5%    6.8%     0.9%  17.5%  1.0%
Total             0.7%    4.6%   13.8%   21.9%    9.4%     8.1%  10.1%  9.4%

The BJP maintained its massive lead in Hindi speaking states by forming an alliance with JD(U) in Bihar but the real surge came in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.  The NDA also went up in the Sino-Tibetian speaking Northeast states.  In Dravidian states the NDA/BJP went nowhere and the loss of TDP alliance meant that NDA is now looks like the NDA in 2004 and 2009 in  Dravidian states.

The main reasons why the BJP Hindi Sanskritisation cultural assimilation program had worked in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas but not in Dravidian areas is mostly because Dravidian languages have their own literary tradition just like Indian Muslims have a Persian influenced independent Urdu  literary tradition.  Having such a tradition tends to make a population more resilient to cultural assimilation.

[jaichind]

Some addition color

INC gain from Independent

Kerala, Chalakudy
Kerala, Idukki

This is really INC gain from pro-CPM independents with both are part of Left Front.

Independent gain from BJP

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

This is really an INC rebel and ex-MP

Independent gain from JD (S)

Karnataka, Mandya

This is really an INC rebel running with BJP support

Independent gain from SS

Maharashtra, Amravati

This independent is really YSP which is a NCP splinter that still have good relations with UPA and was running as the UPA candidate here.

DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Viluppuram

This is really VCK gain from AIADMK.  The VCK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.

DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Erode

This is really MDMK gain from AIADMK.  The MDMK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.

DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Namakkal

This is really KMDK gain from AIADMK.  The KMDK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.

DMK gain from AIADMK

Tamil Nadu, Perambalur

This is really IJK gain from AIADMK.  The IJK candidate ran on the DMK symbol.

[jaichind]

What about Gandhi's sister for leader.

Not sure that works.  It would still give the INC the stain of dynasty.  I personally think INC is still better off with Rahul Gandhi as leader given how he has grown since 2014.  But if he had to go I would say INC CM of Punjab Amarinder Singh would be a good person to lead INC.

[jaichind]

I been looking over the election result seat by seat I noticed something which would also help explain the size of the BJP victory.  Usually around 6%-10% of the vote on average (depending on the state) would go to micro-candidates which are tiny parties and irreverent independents.  This time around that vote share fell drastically to be around 2%-3% pretty much everywhere with the exception of Bihar and partly Jharkhand where there was some drop but not dramatic.

I think this is a sign that the TINA factor is at play.  Most of this drop, it seems, went to BJP/NDA as well as a swing in many places away from INC/NDA and/or other opposition forces most likely due to fear that there will be chaos at the national level of the NDA does not get a majority.

If you look at the results, parties that was clearly interested in state level politics and would be open to supporting the winning side to form a stable government (YSRCP and BJD) did well and beat back the BJP wave.  Parties that clearly had national aspirations (BSP backed by SP, AITC, TDP, TRS) did poorly. 

In fact this picture of JD(S) CM Kumaraswamy swearing in ceremony in May 2018 which I thought represented a threat to Modi ended being the very thing that help BJP win a landslide.  This picture have the impression that the alternative to Modi is choas led by a 20+ headed monster with a different PM and DPM every other day.  This picture had in in several PM, DPM, puppetmaster aspirants (Rahul Gandhi, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Deve Gowda, Sharad Pawar,  Chandrababu Naidu etc etc)


So while my model of 2019 was 2004 where it was going to be a series of state level elections, a better model seems to be 1980 and 2009.  In 1980 Indira led INC won a surprising large majority over JNP and JNP(S)-INC(U) blocs.  The main reason for such a large victory was that while it was not clear that INC would be able to win a majority and form a stable government, her party was the only one with such prospects.  As a result most of the floating vote went to INC to produce a stable majority.  In 2009 it also seemed like the result will be a fractured result but it was clear that NDA was not in a position to win a majority while UPA was.  So the floating vote went to UPA, especially in urban areas, giving it a near majority and easy majority with parties that are pro-UPA.   In 2019 it was clear, in retrospect, that the NDA was headed to a majority, but the prospect that it might not and that NDA was the only formation that can get to a majority lead the floating vote to give NDA a landslide, just like Indira Gandhi's INC did in 1980.   This dynamic seems especially true for women voters which in the end clearly broke for NDA.

So what does this mean for INC for 2024.  It seems that no matter what INC has to form pre-election alliance with various anti-BJP parties by, if necessary, being generous with seat distribution BUT only on the condition that the said anti-BJP regional party will support Rahul Gandhi (assuming he is still the leader) for PM post election.  This approach of multiple PM candidates vague opposition tactical alliances only plays into the BJP hands in terms of paining the election as Modi vs chaos.

[jaichind]

With a total wipe-out for RJD in Bihar there seems to be open rebellion within RJD to overthrow the power of the Lalu Yadav clan within the party.  RJD is currently led by Lalu Yadav's younger son Tejashwi Yadav.  Infighting between Tejashwi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav played a role in the defeat of RJD.  Key RJD leaders are indicating that this family feud and perception that the RJD is the party of Yadav has hurt their election chances and that a non-Yadav should take over as the head of RJD.  If the RJD does end up falling apart then the party that gains would be INC which pick up a lot of the Muslim and even Yadav support that went to RJD and would not vote BJP-JD(U).

[jaichind]

One comical character in all this is Bihar HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi,  He managed to be on the losing side for all 3 Bihar elections in a row (2014 2015 2019.)  In 2014 he was part of JD(U) which was driven the third place in a 3 way battle between BJP-LJP-RLSP vs RJD-INC vs JD(U)-CPI.  In 2015 he formed HAM and allied with BJP which was beaten by the grand alliance of RJD-JD(U)-INC.  For 2019 HAM jumped ship again to join up with RJD-INC-RLSP-VIP but was defeated again.  Every significant party has been on the winning and losing slide at least over of the the last 3 elections (2014 2015 2019).  Only Jitan Ram Manjhi found a way to be on the losing side for all three.

[jaichind]

While many point to BJP's 4 seats in Telangana with 19.7% of the vote as unprecedented and a precursor to a BJP surge there in the future, I am not so sure.  Back in 1991 BJP won 1 seat on its own with around a 18% vote share in a highly charged Hindu-Muslim polarization environment in urban Telangana.  Over time that BJP surge subsided.   The same could take place again once Modi moves off the scene.  It is not clear to me that BJP will overtake INC as the main opponent to TRS here.       

Between 1989 to 1991 there was significant political realignment due to the rise of Dalit based BSP and polarization of the Upper Caste vote toward BJP due to the Ram temple issue.  Both trends hurt INC.  1991 LS elections were called after JD split and BJP withdrew support to the JD over the Ram Temple issue and quotas for OBC.  The BJP was headed to a strong performance to push INC to second place when the Rajiv Gandhi assassination took place and the sympathy wave brought INC back to power nationally.  In AP/Telangana BJP broke from the TDP bloc and ate into both the INC and TDP+ vote share.  Since part of the election here were held after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination the result in AP/Telangana in the LS election was a slight edge for INC.

1991 AP  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           26                15             50.06%

TDP+        26                11             42.18% (ICS was part of TDP+)

TDP rebel                       0               0.52%

BJP          25                  0               4.61%


1991 Telangana  LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC           16               10              38.06%

TDP+        16                 4              31.09% (CPM CPI JD were part of TDP+)

CPM rebel                      0                1.11%

BJP           16                1              17.98%

AIMIM        1                 1               4.75%

The BJP surge really came in Telangana where the old BJS was always strong due to polarization around AIMIM and Hyderabad Muslims and would have been even bigger if it was not for the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.    At the national level INC was able to come back to power with a near absolute majority.

[jaichind]

Back on the topic of NDA/BJP performance in states grouped by languages. I also computed vote share in the 1991-2019 period by such groups.

NDA total
                    1991    1996    1998     1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%   37.1%  40.7%  42.8%  34.7%  31.8%  46.4%  55.3%
Indo-Aryan    22.0%   21.7%  39.9%  41.1%  38.4%  28.0%  37.5%  48.1%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%   13.2%  10.1%  18.5%   7.2%   31.2%  29.0%
Dravidian        5.5%    4.7%   27.0%  40.3%  33.5%   3.9%   26.2%  17.9%
Total            20.9%   23.9%   37.5%  41.3%   35.8% 24.1%  38.9%   45.4%

BJP only
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi             29.5%  32.1%   35.7%  34.1%  30.1%  25.9%  44.2%  49.6%
Indo-Aryan    19.9%  17.6%   22.2%  23.1%  22.4%  20.4%  29.9%  39.8%
Sino-Tibetian   5.3%    5.1%    9.0%    5.6%   13.2%   7.2%  11.4%  19.8%
Dravdian         5.4%    4.6%   12.1%   8.2%    7.7%    3.7%    6.9%    7.2%
Total             20.1%  20.3%   25.6%  24.0%  22.3%  18.7%  31.1%  37.6%

BJP allies
                    1991    1996     1998    1999     2004    2009    2014    2019
Hindi              0.0%    5.0%    5.0%    8.7%    4.6%   6.0%    2.2%   5.7%
Indo-Aryan     2.1%    4.1%   17.7%  18.1%  16.0%   7.7%    7.6%   8.4%
Sino-Tibetian   0.0%   0.0%     4.2%    4.5%    5.3%   0.0%  19.8%   9.2%
Dravidain        0.0%   0.1%   15.0%   32.2%  25.8%   0.2%  19.3% 10.7%
Total              0.8%    3.6%   11.8%   17.3%  13.5%   5.4%   7.8%    7.7%

Some main takeaways
1) BJP core strength in the 1990s was in the Hindi areas but had a solid based of around 20% in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas where they were able to leverage that base to gain allies in 1996-2004.
2) BJP always weak in Dravidian area and only did well in the 1998-1999 period due to its ability to gain allies (AIADMK/DMK and NTRTDP/TDP).  The 1998 BJP vote share in Dravidian states in 1998 is artificially high as BJP ally in undivided AP, NTRTDP, let BJP run in most LS seats with their support as NTRTDP was focused on winning power at the state assembly level.
3) After 2004 defeat BJP lost a lot of allies which drove down its vote share across the board as it became not viable in many states in 2009
4) The 2014 surge was mostly in Hindi areas and to some extent non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while regaining some allies in Dravidian areas (PMK/DMDK/MDMK and TDP)
5) The 2019 surge was mostly in Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan areas while gaining some more in Hindi areas but the gains are mostly due to new allies (JD(U) in Bihar and AJSU in Jharkhand) while in Dravidian areas the BJP brand lost it allies (TDP) or dragged down the performance of new allies (AIADMK)
6) As of 2019 the BJP is truely a Hindu Indo-Aryan party that dominates that region with the help of allies.
7) The INC position in 2019 is not that dire.  In 2019 INC won 19.7% of the vote with UPA winning 27.1% of the vote.  Both numbers are higher than BJP (18.7%) and NDA (24.1%) respectively in 2009.   In many ways 2019 wiped out a lot of rivals of INC for the main opponent to the BJP. If and when BJP declines the INC is expected to gain once it can survive the current crisis of leadership.

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election poll by age.  BJP have a slight relative advantage with the youth vis-a-vis INC and vice versa with older voters.

Age groups        Congress (%)   Congress allies (%)       BJP (%)   BJP allies (%)    Other parties (%)
18-22 yrs              20 (+3)               5 (+3)                   41 (+4)        7 (0)                 28 (-7)
23-27 yrs              18 (-2)                6 (+3)                   40 (+8)        7 (0)                 29 (-8)
28-35 yrs             19 (0)                 7 (+4)                   39 (+6)        7 (0)                 28 (-8)
36-45 yrs             20 (2)                 7 (+4)                   37 (+7)        7 (0)                 29 (-11)
46-55 yrs             20 (0)                 8 (+5)                   36 (+6)        7 (1)                 29 (-10)
56 yrs and above  19 (-1)                8 (+3)                   35 (+7)        7 (-1)                31(-8)
Overall vote share 19 (0)                 7 (+4)                   37 (+6)        7(0)                  29 (-9)

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election poll of  Karnataka

The fact that BJP won the Vokkaliga vote and is fairly close to the UPA for the Dalit vote shows the extent of the defections of the JD(S) and INC base over to the BJP and in this disastrous alliance at the grassroots level.   The massive lead of the BJP in the Lingayat is not a surprise but the scale is.

Caste/Community    Cong-JDS (%)      BJP (%)       Others (%)
Upper Caste                 31                     63                   6
Vokkaliga                     33                     60                   7
Lingayat                       10                    87                   3
Other OBC                   46                     47                   7
Dalit                            49                    42                   9
Adivasi                        36                     54                 10
Muslim                        73                     18                   9
Others                         36                    55                    9

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election survey of WB

The Hindu, Dalit, Tribal vote consolidated around BJP from Left and INC while the Muslim vote consolidated around AITC from Left and INC.

                             BJP               AITC           Left           INC
Community   2014 2019   2014 2019   2014 2019   2014 2019
Hindus                21    57       40      32     29      6       6       3
Muslims                2     4        40      70     31    10      24     12
Upper caste        24    57       38       31     27      9       5       3
OBC                   21    65       43       28     26     4        4       2
Dalits                 20    61       40       27     29     6        8       4
Adivasis             11     58      40       28     41    12        5       2