IA: GOP candidates in the lead

[Tender Branson]

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2004 was R+2
2008 was D+1
2010 was R+4

And this poll is R+8 ?

Hard to believe ...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

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2004 was R+2
2008 was D+1
2010 was R+4

And this poll is R+8 ?

Hard to believe ...

Atrocious crosstabs. Junk poll.

[Gustaf]

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2004 was R+2
2008 was D+1
2010 was R+4

And this poll is R+8 ?

Hard to believe ...

One could imagine the Iowa caucus having an effect precisely on the enthusiasm levels and thus number of likely voters. But it still seems too much.

[krazen1211]

Yeah, this...there's no reason anybody should think this makes sense, even if they are krazen.

Likely voter screen. It makes plenty of sense and from a good source.

Of course, the peanut gallery simply screams 'outlier!' on some 1/3 or so of polls.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Not sure if real poll or just another Krazen post.

[Person Man]

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2004 was R+2
2008 was D+1
2010 was R+4

And this poll is R+8 ?

Hard to believe ...

In 04, it was actually D+1. Kerry got 49% there and 48% nationally.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

lol

[DrScholl]

This poll is junk, it has nothing to do with how well the candidates are known or any spin like that. Iowa is one of that states least likely to fall in 2012. Any poll show Ron Paul doing better than the rest of the GOP field is junk anyway. It's grasping at straws to believe this poll.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Looks like a good poll.  It is a swing state after all and even if it has been a lean-D swing state there is no guarantee it will stay that way.  

[Tender Branson]

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2004 was R+2
2008 was D+1
2010 was R+4

And this poll is R+8 ?

Hard to believe ...

In 04, it was actually D+1. Kerry got 49% there and 48% nationally.

I mean the 2004 CNN Exit Poll sample from IA was R+2, not the election result.

[tpfkaw]

Iowa has been trending Republican for a while and Ron Paul ran the best campaign there.  I don't see why this poll is necessarily false, especially since IIRC it's saying about the same thing as the last Iowa poll, although it certainly could be an outlier.

[Beet]

I think this is an effect of the Republicans spending such a long time campaigning there. It is pretty impressive though, considering that Iowa's economy is booming and you would expect that to be in Obama's favor. It doesn't surprise me that Paul is doing well. Compared to the other candidates he's faced little scrutiny, and some of his positions (foreign policy, civil liberties and certain social issues) are well calculated to appeal to Democrats and Independents. However if his positions were actually put under the microscope, I don't think he'd end up doing nearly this well.

[Lief 🗽]

Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?

The worst part of his thinking is not that; the worst part of his thinking is his inexplicable love affair with the likes of Pinochet, Milosevic and Apartheid South Africans.

And apparently Imperial Germany.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920120215040

[Kevin]

Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?

The worst part of his thinking is not that; the worst part of his thinking is his inexplicable love affair with the likes of Pinochet, Milosevic and Apartheid South Africans.

And apparently Imperial Germany.

Whatever buddy!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Gotta love that likely voters screen eight and a half months out with, as needs to be restated, a putative Republican advantage twice as large as 2010.

[Reginald]

It'll definitely be interesting to see if other polls show anything like this. This one really is bucking the trend we've been seeing lately in other swing states (aside from Gingrichfail, of course).

Gotta love that likely voters screen eight and a half months out with, as needs to be restated, a putative Republican advantage twice as large as 2010.

This is what happens outside of fantasyland, hack.

[Kevin]

Of course the comments on this poll(just like any other one that has a Republican leading, just shows the fantasyland the Dem hacks on the Atlas live in.

And you're at a university? With that type of thinking?

It maybe hard for to believe but most people at college are open to seeing different electoral results then most of the immature teenage hacks(like yourself) that populate this forum.

[DrScholl]

Again, the issue with the poll is that it has a lot less Democrats that will actually be part of an actual electorate. It's way too early for likely voter screens and even when the time comes, the screens won't be that heavily Republican. Calling names and getting angry won't make this poll the accurate.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, this...there's no reason anybody should think this makes sense, even if they are krazen.

Likely voter screen. It makes plenty of sense and from a good source.

Of course, the peanut gallery simply screams 'outlier!' on some 1/3 or so of polls.

This number might have gone down some in the last couple of days.