Australia General Discussion

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Latest Newspoll:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381569-601,00.html

Turnbull to announce Shadow Ministry today:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381588-2702,00.html

Rudd leaves on eighth overseas trip in nine months:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24382955-601,00.html

Turnbull Shadow Ministry Press Release:
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=1654

Shadow Ministry List:
http://www.liberal.org.au/documents/CoaShadMinList.pdf

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Although I like Malcolm Turnbull and hopes he defeats Kevin Rudd's Labor Party at the next election he has sure made some shocking cabinet decisions today.

Whilst I did predict that Turnbull would select Deputy Leader Julie Bishop to become Shadow Treasurer today, Bishop was selected purely based on tokenism. The same applies for when Bishop was elected as Deputy Leader of the Federal Liberal Party last November. Bishop is by far no means an excellent parliamentarian, nor can she conduct an interview properly thus I have some doubts, in fact a lot of them regarding Turnbull's selection to make her Shadow Treasurer. Not to mention there were far superior choices Turnbull could have made to select as Shadow Treasurer, Andrew Robb anyone?

From what I read today, Andrew Robb expressed an interest in the Treasury portfolio. While Leaders in the Liberal Party are able to select their own Ministry team and allocate portfolios, the Deputy Leader is entitled to select their own portfolio. Julie Bishop chose the Treasury and that's all there is to it.

I still think Andrew Robb's under-rated. I'm glad to see Senator Ronaldson's still in the Ministry. Also keep an eye out for Senator Scott Ryan, who delivered his maiden speech last week - he is a rising up-and-comer who is exceptionally intelligent and will certainly be going places in the long run.

http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/dailys/ds160908.pdf (page 40).

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I can't help it, I love Senator Coonan.

Really? That was something that I didn't expect. Although I believe that despite her extensive ministerial experience she will faulter in her new position as Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister, she is much more tolerable than Julie Bishop or the infamous Bronwyn Bishop.

I once predicted she'd be our first female PM, and even though she is a senator, it might just happen.

If any female politician is to become Australia's first female Prime Minister than it would have to be Julia Gillard and she's in the prime position too: Deputy Prime Minister. Hugh, I doubt we will ever see another Senator become Prime Minister of Australia. It was a mere fluke that John Gorton, who as we know was a current member of the Senate at the time, became Prime Minister in January 1968 all due to John McEwen's dislike of William McMahon. And Helen Coonan doing a Gorton in the near future I doubt it very much so.

On another matter Hugh sorry to see your boys lose to Geelong last Friday night. However, I'm glad to see Adam Cooney come home with the Brownlow Medal . This coming from the man who wanted the crowd's favourite Richmond's Matthew Richardson to claim the coveted prize.

Agree with all you've said about Gorton and the odds that this will be repeated. Of course, once he was PM, Gorton moved to the Reps, contesting the by-election triggered by Holt's disappearance. Of course, Bronwyn Bishop also made the move from Senate to House of Reps, in the thought that she might become leader and subsequently PM.

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I think it's also interesting that Rudd's decided to take the opportunity to tell the US Congress that they should approve the bailout... because in a presidential election year, of course Congress is going to do what the Australian PM suggests.

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http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24766867-29277,00.html

Australia to have a new (or does "new" imply there's an "old" one?) political tv channel. A-Span, modelled on C-Span.

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Yeah - I have no idea where they got the name. It's pretty suckful.

There is an Australian Parliamentary Network for Federal Parliament, that also webcasts (at least it webcasts on the parliamentary intranet). It has different channels - one is the House of Reps, one is the Senate, one is the Main Committee, and then there are different channels for each of the Committee Rooms so you can watch the various Committees in action if you require a cure for insomnia. I think they webcast via the www.aph.gov.au site. I know you can get HoR and Senate through there.

The Victorian and Queensland Parliaments have webcasting of their sittings (other states may as well, but I can't say that definitively). Victoria only webcasts audio, however (so it will be interesting to see if this leads them to upgrade to visual - I think the link said that they would, but I can't remember now). Queensland always used to just do it audio, but I think they've upgraded to visual as well, although I'm not 100% certain on that.

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http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24766867-29277,00.html

Australia to have a new (or does "new" imply there's an "old" one?) political tv channel. A-Span, modelled on C-Span.

C doesn't mean Congress or United States. That means Cable. They can't translate the C in A.

Australia-Satellite Public Affairs Network?

Apparently: Australian Subscription Public Affairs Network.

What a terrible name.

I hope they have an online feed.

Apparently they will.

They will commence broadcast with Obama's Inauguration Speech, will broadcast "Federal Parliament, including Committee hearings, speeches, conferences and events such as Anzac Day. It will also broadcast Question Time from the Victorian, NSW and Queensland Parliaments, and cover New Zealand and British Parliaments."

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24771760-662,00.html

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The closer people are to Rudd, the worse he looks. That's why his caucus colleagues rolled him, as Polnut notes.

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Two questions:

1) Who would challenge Abbott for the leadership?

2) Where can I find a color coded map of the Australian House?

International Elections board. Homely just started a "New Australian Maps" thread a couple of weeks ago. Al did a few maps after the election in the thread on the election. They're probably all in the International Elections gallery.

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I think that many of the people who prefer Turnbull over Abbott would not vote for the Coalition regardless of who is the leader or are Liberal moderates who are likewise not swinging voters. I think that compared to Abbott, Turnbull would increase the margin in inner-suburban safe Liberal seats and decrease the margin in inner-suburban safe Labor seats. Abbott has the greater ability to win the outer-suburban swing seats.

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Snipping a bit (and trying not to remove context):

the carbon tax is on shakier ground, but that's more based on the situation that brought it about, rather than the tax itself (apart from the rampant misinformation and fear campaign)

3) The carbon-tax "lie", Gillard saying that she wouldn't bring about a carbon tax ... then she did... I don't think it was an active lie, I think she wouldn't have done it if it weren't a minority government.

4) It basically built the idea that Gillard was untrustworthy and that the Government doesn't really stand for much...

I think that pretty much sums up the Government's unpopularity. I personally don't like the tax but I'll keep those opinions out of it and try to be objective... I think that the reason the Government and the Prime Minister is unpopular is not because of the tax per se, but rather because of the way it was brought in - after she'd specifically ruled it out during the election campaign.

I think people are more willing to forgive a government, particularly a minority government, for failing to act - especially on election commitments, rather than for acting on what they said they wouldn't do. There was plenty of legislation during the Howard era that was blocked by the Senate, (and 2004 was the first government majority in the Senate in what? 25 years?) so I think people are fairly used to governments not having a complete free rein - and probably somewhat expect the government to be curtailed from some of their plans. Sort of a "well, we tried, but they wouldn't let it through - give us a mandate at this next election/end the uncertainty and we'll do it."

During the formation of government negotiations with the Greens, I think the Prime Minister was in a stronger position than I think she thought. The Greens were never going to throw their support behind a Tony Abbott led government, and I think she could have stared them down on that without concessions like the Carbon Tax. Even if they ended up backing the Coalition, while Labor would have lost the short-term battle, they would have been better off in the long-run... a Coalition minority Government propped up by the Greens would never have lasted full-term and Labor would comfortably win back Melbourne and get a decent buffer in Sydney and Grayndler, and the Greens would have taken a hammering in their Senate vote - most of which would probably ended up back with Labor.

Anyway, just my thoughts on it.

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the independents show no sign of moving.

Oakeshott has re-iterated his warning that his deal was with the Prime Minister, not the Labor Government.

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Yeah, we have a maximum end date but no fixed terms.

(At a federal level - some states and councils have fixed terms).

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Rudd probably wouldn't lose Windsor, as you note, and there's a good chance he'd pick up Katter. That said, if Rudd brought on a leadership ballot, a third challenger could emerge.

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Laurie Oakes presents: Simon Crean as compromise candidate.

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but there's perhaps 18 months before the next election.

According to Antony Green, the earliest date for an ordinary full house and half senate non-DD election is August next year.

What Crean lacks in charisma he makes up for in gravitas and seriousness (a bit like Howard, really).

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Also, isn't there a sitcom satirising here relationship with here significant other?

The sitcom was decidedly unfunny. The only thing going for it was the lead character's close resemblance to the Prime Minister - she'd previously done skits impersonating the PM on other shows which were shorter... the humour just couldn't last the distance of a full show dedicated to pretty much the one joke. The first episode wasn't horrendous, the portrayal of the independents were pretty good.

The Hollowmen was a far superior production by the ABC.

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Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

The closer people get to him, the less they like him. I handed out HTV cards at the Woodridge by-election opposite him when he was a first term backbencher and found him to be an odious t***. Don't know if the word to fill the blank is allowable or not.

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Which is the problem... the public like him... but don't know him - his colleagues know him, and hate him.

The closer people get to him, the less they like him. I handed out HTV cards at the Woodridge by-election opposite him when he was a first term backbencher and found him to be an odious t***. Don't know if the word to fill the blank is allowable or not.

Pretty sure that 'twat' is fine here.

I'd been thinking "turd" but "twat" works just fine.

When I spent a few hours across a footpath from him, I found him an odious turd and an obnoxious twat.

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I'm under the impression that the factional wings of the party matter rather less than they used to. Is there any basis to that?

Bruce Hawker was asked about this just this morning (if my memory serves me correct). The question was in the context of Rudd mounting a second challenge if unsuccessful in a first challenge and how there could be a big change in the result from first challenge to second challenge if a factional heavy changed sides and brought, for example, 15 MPs with him, and he was saying that factional heavyweights no longer carry that sort of influence. They might bring some MPs with them, but they wouldn't bring every MP who supposedly answers to them. He was saying many backbenchers are more independent/individual than used to be the case, even from a decade or two ago.

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I believe the Newspoll also had Rudd as preferred PM over Abbott by about 53-34. Going from memory here off the tv news five minutes back, so I could be wrong.

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Rumour that Senator Mark Arbib has resigned as Senator and Minister

Bit odd... I was of the impression he backed the successful candidate.

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Ongoing problems for the federal government.

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And looks like Craig Thompson is going to "quit" the caucus and sit as an independent, so reports the Daily Telegraph.

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Yeah, you have to wonder how he ever became a Cabinet Minister (actually, we all know the answer to that one... *wink*).