Make a Bold Prediction for the 2012 election

[Josh/Devilman88]

It will be many many years before we see another southern republican in the white house.

[pbrower2a]

I could think of a few other reasons why she wouldn't win a primary.

Maine's GOP's ideology represents maybe 2-3% of the nationwide Republican primary electorate.

Pro-choice
Pretty pro-gay (although I'm not sure if she's pro-gay marriage)
Opposes the death penalty
Liberal on environmental issues (although the GOP could benefit from going a little more liberal there, in my opinion)
Liberal-ish on immigration
Supported McCain-Feingold

She's pretty good on guns, but that won't help much after #'s 1 and 2.

She would lose to some right-winger in the GOP after winning the New Hampshire primary. All of those values are to be found elsewhere -- in Barack Obama, who seems to leave guns alone so far.   

[pbrower2a]

We will see the first inaugural speech of Mark Clement Sanford, Jr. on January 20, 2012, after the 350+ electoral vote defeat of Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.

Mark Sanford could be impeached for dereliction of duty long before 2012. It's not for adultery, a commonplace deed; he would be in the same predicament if he had "only" attended a bullfight or a tango convention. 

[DariusNJ]

1) Obama will recapture the counties he lost in the Pittsburgh Metro area

2) He'll get over 40% in Arkansas

3) Texas will be within 10 points.

[Mechaman]

Tancredo landslide-on the Constitution Party ticket

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Tancredo landslide-on the Constitution Party ticket

TAKINM MURICA BACK!!!!!!!!

[Progressive]

A Tea Party aggressive conservative will win the GOP nod in '12

[cardboard59]

Hispanics and African-Americans turn out in huge numbers for Obama. Consequentially, Texas and Georgia flip to Democratic.

[Psychic Octopus]

Is Susan Collins married? If she isn't, I think the Gop wouldn't nominate her.

THAT is your reason for why she wouldn't get nominated?

Heh, have to respond now. My reason is that she may well be a lesbian, has a liberal voting record, and wouldn't make it past Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.

[sentinel]

Ronald Reagan wins.

[Mr. Morden]

We will see the first inaugural speech of Mark Clement Sanford, Jr. on January 20, 2012, after the 350+ electoral vote defeat of Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.

Sanford is going to be sworn in as president 10 months before the election?

[tonyreyes89]

We will see the first inaugural speech of Mark Clement Sanford, Jr. on January 20, 2012, after the 350+ electoral vote defeat of Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.

Sanford is going to be sworn in as president 10 months before the election?

LOL

[Mechaman]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

Any ideas on what a map for that might look like?

Probably would depend a lot on who his running mate is, but there would definitely be some new contests brought into play. Especially after Obama's popularity takes its inevitable nosedive.

[Mechaman]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

Any ideas on what a map for that might look like?

Probably would depend a lot on who his running mate is, but there would definitely be some new contests brought into play. Especially after Obama's popularity takes its inevitable nosedive.

Well sadly the evangelical and socially conservative turnout will be lower (and in some places might go Democrat). However, Johnson would suddenly become very competitive in plenty of D states that have a large population of civil libertarians frustrated by the Obama administrations passiveness on ending the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Patriot Act.
Here's what I think the map would look like, hell it might become a realignment election:

While in the Deep South Johnson would lose alot of votes he would become the strongest presidential candidate in the Mountain West since Reagan, winning his home state of New Mexico (which usually leans Democrat) with more than 60% of the popular vote. He would capture the entire western United States, even California and Washington (the latter's libertarian nature would finally reveal itself without a social con in the race). In spite of his overall weakness in the South (compared to previous GOP candidates) Johnson would do very well in Texas and Oklahoma thanks to those two states having very fiscally conservative qualities.
As you can see the South will become fractured due to the lack of turnout from evangelicals and social conservatives, causing quite a few states to go Democrat that otherwise would've gone Republican. However, in the place of those lost Southern states quite a few unlikely Republican states like New Jersey, Maine, and even Pennsylvania would go due to many moderates and even quite a few liberals becoming disillusioned with Obama's stances on foreign policy, the War on Drugs, DADT, and other civil libertarian issues.
Once again I will admit that this scenario is a bit insane, but I am sticking by it.

[Lunar]

There are two dominant forces in American politics, Mechaman: evangelical Christians and labor unions.  There are a number of states where either of those is enough to win the vote.  These states aren't going to wake up with a socialist/fundamentalist hangover and magically become libertarians within a timespan of two years

[Mechaman]

There are two dominant forces in American politics, Mechaman: evangelical Christians and labor unions.  There are a number of states where either of those is enough to win the vote.  These states aren't going to wake up with a socialist/fundamentalist hangover and magically become libertarians within a timespan of two years

Granted
I just feel like the time is coming for change! CHANGE GAWDDAMNIT CHANGE!!!!!

[Lunar]

The most powerful forces in American politics, powerful in the sense of cultural attitudes and institutionalism, are populist ones

If you don't like it (I sure as hell don't), quit believing in the masses 'n democracy haha. 

[Mint]

There are two dominant forces in American politics, Mechaman: evangelical Christians and labor unions.  There are a number of states where either of those is enough to win the vote.  These states aren't going to wake up with a socialist/fundamentalist hangover and magically become libertarians within a timespan of two years

Granted
I just feel like the time is coming for change! CHANGE GAWDDAMNIT CHANGE!!!!!

The NM Right To Life Committee called Johnson a 'warrior for the pro life cause' awhile back and he's generally a supporter of states rights. It really shouldn't be too hard for him to get some evangelicals on board if he's not totally politically retarded.

[nhmagic]

Palin will defeat Obama in a comfortable victory.

[auburntiger]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

Any ideas on what a map for that might look like?

Probably would depend a lot on who his running mate is, but there would definitely be some new contests brought into play. Especially after Obama's popularity takes its inevitable nosedive.

Well sadly the evangelical and socially conservative turnout will be lower (and in some places might go Democrat). However, Johnson would suddenly become very competitive in plenty of D states that have a large population of civil libertarians frustrated by the Obama administrations passiveness on ending the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Patriot Act.
Here's what I think the map would look like, hell it might become a realignment election:

While in the Deep South Johnson would lose alot of votes he would become the strongest presidential candidate in the Mountain West since Reagan, winning his home state of New Mexico (which usually leans Democrat) with more than 60% of the popular vote. He would capture the entire western United States, even California and Washington (the latter's libertarian nature would finally reveal itself without a social con in the race). In spite of his overall weakness in the South (compared to previous GOP candidates) Johnson would do very well in Texas and Oklahoma thanks to those two states having very fiscally conservative qualities.
As you can see the South will become fractured due to the lack of turnout from evangelicals and social conservatives, causing quite a few states to go Democrat that otherwise would've gone Republican. However, in the place of those lost Southern states quite a few unlikely Republican states like New Jersey, Maine, and even Pennsylvania would go due to many moderates and even quite a few liberals becoming disillusioned with Obama's stances on foreign policy, the War on Drugs, DADT, and other civil libertarian issues.
Once again I will admit that this scenario is a bit insane, but I am sticking by it.

I'd reverse KY and TN. The GOP is stronger in Tennessee, and KY is very similar to West VA in voting patterns at least now. Otherwise, it'd be nice to see a change from the norm.

[Mechaman]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

Any ideas on what a map for that might look like?

Probably would depend a lot on who his running mate is, but there would definitely be some new contests brought into play. Especially after Obama's popularity takes its inevitable nosedive.

Well sadly the evangelical and socially conservative turnout will be lower (and in some places might go Democrat). However, Johnson would suddenly become very competitive in plenty of D states that have a large population of civil libertarians frustrated by the Obama administrations passiveness on ending the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Patriot Act.
Here's what I think the map would look like, hell it might become a realignment election:

While in the Deep South Johnson would lose alot of votes he would become the strongest presidential candidate in the Mountain West since Reagan, winning his home state of New Mexico (which usually leans Democrat) with more than 60% of the popular vote. He would capture the entire western United States, even California and Washington (the latter's libertarian nature would finally reveal itself without a social con in the race). In spite of his overall weakness in the South (compared to previous GOP candidates) Johnson would do very well in Texas and Oklahoma thanks to those two states having very fiscally conservative qualities.
As you can see the South will become fractured due to the lack of turnout from evangelicals and social conservatives, causing quite a few states to go Democrat that otherwise would've gone Republican. However, in the place of those lost Southern states quite a few unlikely Republican states like New Jersey, Maine, and even Pennsylvania would go due to many moderates and even quite a few liberals becoming disillusioned with Obama's stances on foreign policy, the War on Drugs, DADT, and other civil libertarian issues.
Once again I will admit that this scenario is a bit insane, but I am sticking by it.

I'd reverse KY and TN. The GOP is stronger in Tennessee, and KY is very similar to West VA in voting patterns at least now. Otherwise, it'd be nice to see a change from the norm.

Like this?

[CatoMinor]

Johnson could take back the west, Obama might pick up a few southern states but still fail in
Appalachia

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Yeah, I don't see states like Arkansas and West Virginia ever flipping to Obama. They could definitely be vulnerable though if Huckabee or some other populist tries to keep running.

I don't think social conservative turnout would be that depressed though. Barack Obama is still the most pro-abortion presidential candidate of all time.

Since this is a thread about bold predictions and we're already talking about a situation overcoming incredible odds...I'll predict that with the right running mate, Gary Johnson could bring Vermont back into play after the GOP's 2008 all-time poorest showing there.



With a Northeastern libertarian economic genius as a running mate, like potential Connecticut Senator Peter Schiff:

If Huckabee-Palin then ran as a third-party ticket from Hell....

[Alexander Hamilton]

I think your first map was more accurate, Libertas. Washington is safe Dem.