2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[muon2]

Well the top line precincts out number must be a typo or something. Sedgwick is all in, and Moran has a 3,000 vote lead. A few small counties are not in at all, and it may matter a lot where they are, since this race seem driven by geography to a substantial extent, which is not surprising between two competing congressmen.

Most of the more populated counties that have yet to report are from western Kansas, besides Butler and Riley.

Sumner   0/42   

Sumner is just south of Wichita and in the T man's district. Just saying. Moran leads by 1,000 votes are so. Sumner in case you all are not aware of it, has the highest wheat production in the United States of any county, or did when I read this factlet about 20 years ago or whatever. It is wheat fields from county line to county line, with very little interruption.

Sumner and Butler should go for T, while Riley and Reno are out still for M. Similar populations, so it's hard to see who gets the better turnout at this stage.

Politico has Riley at 100% and Butler at 98% now. M's lead is about 1700 now by their count.

Don't be fooled by the numbers of precincts.

Reno and Riley both have over 60,000.

Sumner has around 25,000.

But Riley has a much lower turnout compared to population.

[Torie]

Riley and Butler have done their thing. So it is Reno v Sumner, with a few other small counties out (where are they located?), with Moran up by 1,700.

[Torie]

[Torie]

Hays is the town where that horrific murder occurred, about which Truman Capote wrote in his major novel, In Cold Blood. I just thought I would add some local color. The killer said it was a real nice family, and he really liked them all, until the moment he cut all their throats. The guy seemed to have some emotional issues I guess.

[muon2]

A big batch of Moran's counties just came in including part of Reno - he's up almost 6K.

[Torie]

A big batch of Moran's counties just came in including part of Reno - he's up almost 6K.

Yes, it is over. Moran just won. Most of Sumner also came in, so the T man is out of cards.

Well we still have the "black precincts" phenom as Spade described it. Whatever.  Maybe the jurisdiction of Kansas includes the moon, and it has a lot of precincts.

[Sam Spade]

A big batch of Moran's counties just came in including part of Reno - he's up almost 6K.

Yes, it is over. Moran just won. Most of Sumner also came in, so the T man is out of cards.

Well we still have the "black precincts" phenom as Spade described it. Whatever.  Maybe the jurisdiction of Kansas includes the moon, and it has a lot of precincts.

The black precincts comment refers to another race.

[Torie]

A big batch of Moran's counties just came in including part of Reno - he's up almost 6K.

Yes, it is over. Moran just won. Most of Sumner also came in, so the T man is out of cards.

Well we still have the "black precincts" phenom as Spade described it. Whatever.  Maybe the jurisdiction of Kansas includes the moon, and it has a lot of precincts.

The black precincts comment refers to another race.

Oh, I assumed it was a reference to black as in black holes -  a cosmic term.

By the way, Greenwood is still out, all out, all 19 precincts, and it is in the T zone. Does it have enough voters to close a 6,000 vote gap? Er no. Maybe a 500 vote gap - at best for the T man.

[Sam Spade]

A big batch of Moran's counties just came in including part of Reno - he's up almost 6K.

Yes, it is over. Moran just won. Most of Sumner also came in, so the T man is out of cards.

Well we still have the "black precincts" phenom as Spade described it. Whatever.  Maybe the jurisdiction of Kansas includes the moon, and it has a lot of precincts.

The black precincts comment refers to another race.

Oh, I assumed it was a reference to black as in black holes -  a cosmic term.

See MI-13.

[Torie]

Look at this. Oh my. The counties not shown in the snapshot are all counted.

[Torie]

Now for MI-1, 5 precincts out:

Total   503/508   26,904    26,961

Bay    9/11   904        776

Iosco 15/18   567        852

Two tiny counties get the limelight.

[Sam Spade]

Benishek will end up ahead by somewhere around this margin.

[Torie]

Benishek will end up ahead by somewhere around this margin.

You are familiar with the five precincts eh? 

[muon2]

Benishek will end up ahead by somewhere around this margin.

You are familiar with the five precincts eh? 

I'm not, but projecting the current counts in those counties would lead me to expect them to cancel out.

[Sam Spade]

Alright, I'm going to bed in 10 minutes.  I'm tired of waiting for MI-13 to manufacture its votes.

[Torie]

Does MI-13 have any white precincts outside the Points burbs, which will not generate that many Dem votes, certainly not enough I don't think to generate the margin of difference that is in play, even if most of those precincts are in?

[Sam Spade]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

[Sam Spade]

Does MI-13 have any white precincts outside the Points burbs?

Not really.  Makeup is 29% white, 61% black, 10% other.  It's just that here, whites are counted first, blacks last and cemeteries if there are any issues...

[Torie]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

Sometime extrapolations are dangerous Sam. The trick is to know when that is the case, and when it isn't. Small rural counties this close, with a handful of votes in play, is such a case. You don't know whether the couple of precincts out are in the county seat or something, and may vote differently from the tweakers in some cabin somewhere.

[Sam Spade]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

Sometime extrapolations are dangerous Sam. The trick is to know when that is the case, and when it isn't. Small rural counties this close, with a handful of votes in play, is such a case. You don't know whether the couple of precincts out are in the county seat or something, and may vote differently from the tweakers in some cabin somewhere.

Of course.  I was just trying to look cool, like I did with Halter/Lincoln.

[Torie]

Does MI-13 have any white precincts outside the Points burbs?

Not really.  Makeup is 29% white, 61% black, 10% other.  It's just that here, whites are counted first, blacks last and cemeteries if there are any issues...

Are you sure the white precincts are counted first in general? Are you sure most of the Points vote is in?

[Sam Spade]

Does MI-13 have any white precincts outside the Points burbs?

Not really.  Makeup is 29% white, 61% black, 10% other.  It's just that here, whites are counted first, blacks last and cemeteries if there are any issues...

Are you sure the white precincts are counted first in general? Are you sure most of the Points vote is in?

In Dem primaries, they always are.

[Sam Spade]

I do want to point out that the Free Press already says Kilpatrick has lost.  We'll see.

http://www.freep.com/article/20100803/NEWS15/100803079/1435/Clarke-upsets-Cheeks-Kilpatrick

[Sam Spade]

I'm done for the night.  Check in tomorrow morning.

[Torie]

I do want to point out that the Free Press already says Kilpatrick has lost.  We'll see.

http://www.freep.com/article/20100803/NEWS15/100803079/1435/Clarke-upsets-Cheeks-Kilpatrick

In trying to infer how much of the white vote is in, this data point isn't very helpful is it?  

U.S. House - District 13 - GOP Primary
Eastern Wayne
Uncontested race, no results will be reported.
County   Precincts   J. Hauler
(GOP)
Total   0/0   0
0%