Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Podgy the Bear]

Article shows up in this evening's NYT website on Stacey Abrams and gives a very good insight on her political skills and her ability to work with the other side:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/19/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

 

[Podgy the Bear]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

I disagree on this with Kemp.  So far, he has an affable manner in his appearances, and his ads on Abrams's tax issues are fair and direct. 

And I am somewhat concerned with Abrams's non-appearance on TV (and therefore, not responding to the tax issue).  It reminds me of Hillary in August 2016 where she effectively disappeared from the public eye (to fundraise, we were told).  I am hoping that Abrams blazes it up for September and October.

[Podgy the Bear]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

[Podgy the Bear]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

[Podgy the Bear]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

[Podgy the Bear]

I have to think the Medicaid expansion issue has to be making a considerable impact in Abrams' favor--especially in the rural areas.  It's really the difference of whether there will be medical coverage or activity in large sections of the state (especially the southern part).   

[Podgy the Bear]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

She's appearing here in Forsyth County tomorrow morning.  That's quite something given the county's history (obviously, it's changed a great deal in recent decades).

This is what I like to see--her going on enemy turf.

[Podgy the Bear]

Will be great to have President Trump in Macon, GA on Sunday!  Im sure it will have a huge turnout!  Weather is looking horrible for the whole state on Tuesday, with severe thunderstorms likely.  Will be interesting how this impacts turnout.  Regardless, excited to see Georgia's future under the direction of Governor Kemp!!

Shades of 2002--when George W. Bush came to Georgia the weekend before the election--and then there was terrible weather on Election Day.  Both of these had considerable impact on the political earthquake in Georgia that year and what has happened in Georgia since then.

But times have changed:
1) Georgia's demographics have changed drastically--the minority vote now exceeds 40%.
2) The tremendous early voting (not nearly as significant in 2002) will have neutralized anything the predicted weather would do.
3) In the immediate post 9-11 world, Bush was far more popular in 2002 than Trump is today.    W could have gone anywhere that year to move votes to the Republicans (and many Democrats became Republican in Georgia that year).  Trump is basically confined to turn out the current Republican base and hope they have voted.

It may very well be a Governor Kemp in 2019.    The Democrats in Georgia have gone into a deep hole over the past 16 years and have a lot to do to dig out.    But they are coming back in a huge way this year and are not looking back.

[Podgy the Bear]

Did anyone see the interview with a Kemp supporter on MSNBC just now? It was ridiculous.

I saw it.  Her response on how voter suppression really doesn't exist in Georgia was amazing.  Boy--the AM Reid panelists (articulate AA women) were steaming!

[Podgy the Bear]

Is AM Joy live from Atlanta? Damn. I should have recorded it.

It is, and the interview with the Kemp supporter was in Peachtree Corners (Gwinnett County bordering Fulton).

[Podgy the Bear]

Why is the Gov and Lt. Gov not on the same ticket?

It could be the case where Abrams wins but not Amico.

This is what happened in 2002; Sonny Perdue unexpectedly won the gubernatorial race, but the Democrats did okay downballot (winning Lt Governor, Attorney General, and other smaller offices).  I know that there is tremendous enthusiasm for Abrams with certain groups, and I hope they would vote for all offices (and straight ticket!).

I think Barrow will pull it out for SOS and get over 50% on Tuesday. 

[Podgy the Bear]

Kemp, in his office as SoS, has launched an investigation of the Georgia Democratic Party for allegedly attempting to hack the state's voter system.  He has so far presented no evidence to back up this claim.

The AJC's Jim Galloway (generally a pretty objective political reporter) has a scathing article about this:  https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/brian-kemp-november-surprise-show-the-facts-and-make-quick/3jgTq3R4pAQq3x6paQ8PUP/

Kemp should be in jail

Which is why John Barrow winning the SOS race is about as important as Stacey Abrams winning (Barrow can be make big changes quickly).

[Podgy the Bear]

Georgians: gun to your head, who wins the SOS race?

Barrow.  He has run a high visibility race, and his TV commercials have appealed to independents and even Republicans. 

[Podgy the Bear]

She made absolutely no headway in the red areas--which is very disheartening.  She tried really hard there.

Only chance is a major overperformance in metro Atlanta but not counting on it.

The Democrats are performing poorly in the South but seem to be doing quite well in the Midwest and Northeast.   They should take the House. 

[Podgy the Bear]

The Democratic present and future is in the urban and suburban areas--no less in the South than the rest of the country.  Which is why Bourdeaux (GA-07) is running very well; we'll see about McBath.  But winning a statewide election seems to be a thing of the past.

[Podgy the Bear]

howabout barrow, is he at least making a runoff?

It'll be close; he's down 46-51 with 90 percent of the vote in.  But even in a runoff, it would be enormously difficult.

[Podgy the Bear]

Abrams looks like she's gonna be able to drag him below 50% with Fulton and DeKalb still out. Glad Bordeaux won. She ran a great campaign and is a great candidate and I'm not just saying that as a GSU alum

Sorry--but it looks like Bourdeaux is now 6000 votes behind.  Forsyth County precincts came in for Woodall in a big way.  McBath is now down by 100 votes!!

[Podgy the Bear]

You guys take a feminist liberal woman from Wisconsin, stick her in Georgia running around with Oprah and you get all confused why you lost the Governorship of Georgia?

Ever been in a situation where someone says, "Who was the moron who came up with that idea?" Well, the same applies here.

It would be like Republicans recruiting Haley Barbour to run for Governor of New York.

I agree. I said several times that Georgia was not ready to flip in 2018, and it seems like I was right. However, Georgia has not been called, and a runoff looks probable. However, Kemp seems favored to win the runoff.

It's not going to flip this year, but it's going to happen--and soon.  I always maintained that the Democrats have been in a huge hole, and it's going to take some time to dig out.

The Democrats have now found the formula in Georgia:

1) Forget the rural areas once and for all.
2) Focus on the rapidly expanding blue (Atlas red) metro Atlanta complex--which now includes Gwinnett, Cobb, Douglas, Henry, Newton, and Rockdale on top of the existing Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton.  Fayette, Forsyth, and Cherokee will stay red but will become bluer in the years to come.  And work to flip more state House and Senate seats--which went Democratic this year in many of the north Atlanta suburbs.  It will force the current Republican legislature to protect their congressional incumbents and make the races that much more competitive in the future.  We're probably going to win GA-06 and come very close in GA-07 (and this will easily flip in 2020).
3) Statewide elections will take more time, but I am very encouraged--just need to keep working to refine the strategy going forward.

[Podgy the Bear]

Abrams is now the undisputed leader of the Democratic Party in Georgia. She can make a further impact by campaigning hard for John Barrow (and Lindy Miller--the PSC District 3 candidate) in the runoff.

The Dems won at least 12 state House seats--all in the north Atlanta suburbs.  With the 2020 census (and depopulating rural areas), metro Atlanta representation in the state legislature is going to be that much more significant in the years to come.

[Podgy the Bear]

So why did John Barrow do so well, and why wasn’t he recruited for the governor race instead?

Barrow would never have brought out the vote in metro Atlanta that Stacey Abrams was able to do.  He benefited from her presence on the ticket.   That, plus his natural base in the Athens area and his very good television presence helped.

[Podgy the Bear]

All of this handwringing about Abrams' post-election actions will mean nothing in a few weeks.  The fact of the matter is the Democratic Party is truly ascendant in Georgia.   Need to keep the focus on getting a runoff win for John Barrow and work on 2020 at all levels.

[Podgy the Bear]

All of this handwringing about Abrams' post-election actions will mean nothing in a few weeks.  The fact of the matter is the Democratic Party is truly ascendant in Georgia.   Need to keep the focus on getting a runoff win for John Barrow and work on 2020 at all levels.

At least you guys have somewhere to rise up.  Here in Indiana, our Democrats are basically wiped off the map and have to start clean.

We need to take out some of the excess vote out of California and New York and systematically move them to red states like Indiana (and definitely places like Wyoming, the Dakotas, and Alaska). That's 10 (!) Senate seats there.

[Podgy the Bear]

On the third day of early voting, 76,196 people voted (including returned mail ballots). The total early vote now stands at 192,949 voters.

This compares to 474,960 people who voted by the third day of the final week of early voting in the general election.

Including mail ballots that are unreturned, a total of 316,196 ballots have been cast or requested. That means 123,247 mail ballots have been issued but have yet to be returned.

Race and gender numbers are slowly getting better for Democrats, but it's still way below where Democrats would want it to be.

that isn't a horrible trend rate. Will there be another souls to the polls?

No. Early voting ends tomorrow.

Voted today. Nice sized line. Demographically it favored Democrats on the surface.

Im pissed at Abrams tbh. She needed to be in full force for Miller and (especially) Barrow.

I'm afraid you're right.  She has had a great opportunity to learn from this experience, to build on it, and establish the Democratic Party in Georgia as a long term competitive force.  However, I suspect that she will play Harold Ford Jr. 2006--a great run, give up on the state, and take a position as an MSNBC panelist/NYT columnist.

[Podgy the Bear]

The runoff process--with only old people voting--needs to be a thing of the past.     A real inconvenience and a waste of resources.  Maine's ranked-choice voting plan is the way to go.

[Podgy the Bear]

Barrow has done better in some areas (around Augusta for the most part).  Disappointingly, he didn't do all that well in the suburban and exurban counties around Atlanta tonight, but he has brought the overall state margin to 54-46 (and with plenty of Fulton and some of DeKalb left to report).

And rural north Georgia is effectively Florida's Collier/Lee County, The Villages and the Panhandle.   It's growing with retirees moving to Georgia.  This is the area that will continue to deliver large majorities to the Republicans.  For the Democrats to be very competitive in 2020, they will need to counter in the cities and repeat their earlier suburban Atlanta performances last month.