Spanish elections and politics IV / Catalan elections on May 12, 2024

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Glad Pedro decided to stay. He has the makings of a true history-making leader if he keeps up his good instincts and charisma. My favorite quote of his was from the 2023 election campaign, "They don't have anything on me. I'm not perfect, but I am a clean politician." The fact that he can say that loud and proud (and repeat it in every campaign rally!) with no real pushback from the other side, is PSOE's best argument for running the country in this era. The right's only allegation of corruption is the pacts with the "enemies of Spain" parties, but clearly those complaints have not really stuck as hard as they hoped.

[Zinneke]

I'm not so sure...the astroturfing campaigns claiming Bildu and ERC will organise a coup seem to work well on youth (+ a growing amount of Latin Americans ) especially.

One good poll doesn't change the fact that this term could be marred by incessant negotiations with Puigdemont and his crew too.

[Velasco]

GAD3 poll for Mediaset released yesterday. The PSC comes ahead and pro-independence parties are on the verge of a majority (including far-right Aliança Catalana)

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1785238428738891891?t=jCw_j5Jok4F94HmM1...

The CIS is out with a shock poll that has Sánchez with 39% of the vote. It was conducted on Friday, two days after Sánchez's announcement.

This would be like a PSOE record in more than a decade.

The CIS under Tezanos has a well documented left-wing bias, but I wouldn't be surprised by a PSOE boost in the rest of the polls.

Link to poll: https://www.cis.es/documents/d/cis/3500_estimacion

The CIS raw data always provides interesting information, but the vote estimations made by Tezanos are performative to a Greater extent than other polls. Most likely the PP will becthe party with the most votes in the upcoming EP election.

Sánchez should abolish the 'Gag Law', end arms trade with Israel and terminate Tezanos. On the other hand, it'd great to see the immediate resignation of the General Council of the Judiciary (very unlikely, given that the members lack the neccessary dignity to resign).

[Logical]

If the Catalan Alliance wins seats next week then Catalonia will have a Spanish and a local version of the far left (Comuns/CUP), left (PSOE/ERC), right (PP/Junts), and far right (VOX/AC) represented in parliament.

I also noticed today that AC's logo is a total knock off of the Tory logo.

[warandwar]

What's the reason for the CUP's decline?

[Velasco]

What's the reason for the CUP's decline?

Probably it's a consequence of the decline of the grassroots movements (anti-capitalist, pro-independence) that were the CUP's strength, as well as the failure of the sovereigntist process. Past year the CUP did not stand local elections lists in former strongholds like Molins de Rei (Baix Llobregat, near Barcelona), because they thought it didn't make sense due to the absence of the neccessary conditions (lack of active people in the local grassroots movements, basically)

If the Catalan Alliance wins seats next week then Catalonia will have a Spanish and a local version of the far left (Comuns/CUP), left (PSOE/ERC), right (PP/Junts), and far right (VOX/AC) represented in parliament.

I also noticed today that AC's logo is a total knock off of the Tory logo.

It could be the corporate logo of a savings bank. They won't save the trees, either

[Velasco]

Summary of the polls released today, just before the silence prescribed by our outdated electoral legislation


● The PSC comes first ranging between 27.1% (Target Point) and 30.1% (GAD3). It could win between 38 and 44 seats. GESOP and 40dB estimate 28% and 40/42 seats

● Junts would be the largest nationalist party, getting between 20.2% (SigmaDos) and 22.2% (GESOP). The seat range is between 28 and 37

● ERC falls below 20%, ranging between 14.2% (GESOP) and 18.9% (SigmaDos). The seat range is between 21 and 30

● The PP improves its disastrous 2021 performance with temarkable increases. The Spanish conservatives range between 7.7% (GESOP) and 10.7% (DYM). They could win between 10 and 15 seats

● VOX would retain the support it got in the last elections. It's ranging between 7% and 8% and could win between 8 and 12 seats

● Comuns Sumar would get rather poor results, ranging between 4.3% (GAD3) and 5.7% (Sociométrica). The seat range is 4/6. The worst performance of this left-wing political space since the PSUC collapse in 1984

● The CUP is ranging between 3.5% (GAD3) and 5.4% (GESOP) and could win between 3 and 8 seats

● Aliança Catalana could enter the Catalan Parliament, getting around 3% and 1/4 seats

● Cs would get around 1% and disappear

[Mike88]

Sure hope that Junts is being overpolled. They are still very close to PSC seat wise.

[jeron]

Summary of the polls released today, just before the silence prescribed by our outdated electoral legislation


● Comuns Sumar would get rather poor results, ranging between 4.3% (GAD3) and 5.7% (Sociométrica). The seat range is 4/6. The worst performance of this left-wing political space since the PSUC collapse in 1984

And 1999? 3 seats

[Velasco]

Summary of the polls released today, just before the silence prescribed by our outdated electoral legislation


● Comuns Sumar would get rather poor results, ranging between 4.3% (GAD3) and 5.7% (Sociométrica). The seat range is 4/6. The worst performance of this left-wing political space since the PSUC collapse in 1984

And 1999? 3 seats

Indeed, that would be the worst performance for the post-communist parties. 1984 and 1999 elections were marked by infighting and division within that political space. In 1984 there was a split between the euro-communist PSUC and the pro-soviet PCC. By 1999 there was a split between the eco-socialist ICV and the Catalan branch of IU (EUiA), over disagreements between the IU's 'orthodox' leader Julio Anguita and the Catalan 'reformists' (ICV was led by Rafael Ribó, replaced by Joan Saura the following year). However, it must be noted ICV only contested the Barcelona province and ran into a coalition with the PSC in the other three provinces.


 Recently (the Pablo Iglesias influenced) Podemos parted ways with the Comuns led by Ada Colau (allied to Yolanda Diaz and Sumar), even though Podemos is not contesting this election

[Skye]

Wouldn't be surprised if the PSC gets >30% of the vote.

[Velasco]

CIS poll released yesterday. The vote estimation for the PSC ranges between 30% and 33%, while Jints and ERC fall below 20%. As usual under Tezanos, it's a bit of an outlier. Anyway it's interesting to watch. The PSC might reach 30%, but other polls I've seen say that Junts would be over 20%. On the other hand, Aliança Catalana is ranging between 3% and 4% in the last polls and could even win 6 seats.  As for Alhora, it's a small pro-independence party

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1787465448994295813?t=PiUnVQxSxEzbA6dg6...

[Lumine]

If there's a pro independence majority that requires Alianca Catalana to work, it's going to be quite a sight to see ERC - and maybe even the CUP - squirm.

But I suppose some combination of PSC-ERC-COM would be the most likely scenario?

[Oryxslayer]

If there's a pro independence majority that requires Alianca Catalana to work, it's going to be quite a sight to see ERC - and maybe even the CUP - squirm.

But I suppose some combination of PSC-ERC-COM would be the most likely scenario?

The way the seats are allocated in Catalonia benefits the Nationalists/Separatist parties which is why they can/often win majorities without >50% of the votes.


Now it terms of government, it has and for now always will be two outcomes. One option is the pro-Independence alliance of last decade is revived, though with Alianca now in the mix it'll likely be some sort of Junts-ERC with outside support from the smaller two. The other option is continuing the situation built recently where the ERC leads a government with the PSC - maybe inside a coalition this time, maybe outside like currently - with the support of another minor left party if necessary.  Despite the PSC finishing first, they can't demand the top job without the threat of alternative negotiation arrangements, something the ERC has and the PSC presently never will thanks to VOX.

And as long as Junts finishes second, either outcome works to their benefit. Either Puigdemont gets power, or they "prove" the ERC to be "traitors." Both circumstances offer the justification necessary to end Sanchez's government if so desired, which as long as they get the amnesty law done could be the case.

[Velasco]

It's remarkable that, during this campaign in Catalonia, nobody is talking about the amnesty law. Spanish conservatives know that a vast majority of Catalans support amnesty, that is seen as an opportunity for reset and restart.  The PP has a majority in the Spanish Senate and it's going to use it to put a veto on the amnesty law, but that will happen two days after the elections take place. That veto will delay the proceedings for approximately two months, but in the end (predictably) the amnesty law will be passed by the Congress of Deputies. The PP is campaigning to catch most of the Cs voters in the last elections, as well as some of the Vox supporters. Feijóo was said to be a "moderate" within the PP when he was in Galicia,  but nowadays he is looking like a hard conservative who displays a harsh rhetoric against the  government and a tough stance on immigration. The latter is a sensitive matter in axregion with high immigration rates - the far-right parties (Vox and Aliança Catalana) are making inroads in the places with the highest rates - .In the video below Feijóo is talking about illegal immigrants who are seeking to occupy our homes as squatters

https://twitter.com/La_SER/status/1788130655806623805?t=Xj1jELVJD4ePqO21bHOLtw&a...

[Velasco]

If there's a pro independence majority that requires Alianca Catalana to work, it's going to be quite a sight to see ERC - and maybe even the CUP - squirm.

But I suppose some combination of PSC-ERC-COM would be the most likely scenario?

ERC and CUP openly reject Aliança Catalana and, as far as I know, Puigdemont rules out cooperating with that party. He only contemplates a coalition government with ERC, even though the relationship between the two main pro-independence parties has been extremely strained during the last decade,  due to their tough battle for hegemony.

ERC ruled out for years a repetition of the left-wing tripartite that governed Catalonia before the beginning of the sovereigntist process. I haven't been following the campaign as closely as I should, but I think that Pere Aragonès is not openly rejecting that possibility nowadays.  Still, it's going to be complicated

PSC candidate Salvador Illa states that his aim is forming a minority government,  even though he would be open to negotiate a coalition with ERC and Comuns

The PP, on the other hand, would be open to support Illa under certain conditions,  even though Spanish conservatives will be hardly decisive. Vox says the PSC is a white label of separatism

[jeron]

If there's a pro independence majority that requires Alianca Catalana to work, it's going to be quite a sight to see ERC - and maybe even the CUP - squirm.

But I suppose some combination of PSC-ERC-COM would be the most likely scenario?

ERC and CUP openly reject Aliança Catalana and, as far as I know, Puigdemont rules out cooperating with that party.

They have. In fact, it was confirmed today.

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-catalanas/2024-05-08/junts-psc-erc-comunes-y-cup-acuerdan-no-apoyarse-en-la-extrema-derecha-en-cataluna.html

[Velasco]

If there's a pro independence majority that requires Alianca Catalana to work, it's going to be quite a sight to see ERC - and maybe even the CUP - squirm.

But I suppose some combination of PSC-ERC-COM would be the most likely scenario?

ERC and CUP openly reject Aliança Catalana and, as far as I know, Puigdemont rules out cooperating with that party.

They have. In fact, it was confirmed today.

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-catalanas/2024-05-08/junts-psc-erc-comunes-y-cup-acuerdan-no-apoyarse-en-la-extrema-derecha-en-cataluna.html

Yes. PSC, Comuns,  ERC, Junts and the CUP agree on implementing a cordon sanitaire on the far-right oarties Vox and Aliança Catalana. Neither the PP nor the remainder of Cs signed the agreement. Obviously the PP is not going to act against its natural ally and coalition partner...

 But Cs is a party that calls itself "liberal" and has nothing to lose but its dignity. Either "liberal" means adherence to the values of liberal democracy (a somewhat "classical" definition), or it means freedom to do whatever you please as long as you can pay (the definition of Ayuso and Milei). You choose

On a separate note, opinion surveys (like the Spanish CIS, or the Catalan CEO institute) are detecting a conservative tirn am9ng the younger voters, the so-called "generation Z" (18 to 25 years). Currently the younger age group is less supportive of the sovereigntist process and more right-leaning. There’s a strong political disaffection in this age group, as well as more conservative views on tax policy, immigration or women's rights. It's a sharp contrast with the left-wing bias of younger voters ten years ago...

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/jovenes-pasan-independentismo-son-derechas-padres-ahora-catalunya-necesita-cosas_1_11338579.html

[icc]

But Cs is a party that calls itself "liberal" and has nothing to lose but its dignity. Either "liberal" means adherence to the values of liberal democracy (a somewhat "classical" definition), or it means freedom to do whatever you please as long as you can pay (the definition of Ayuso and Milei). You choose

Liberalism in the Spanish tradition is really little more than anti-clericalism.

[Estrella]

Some very anecdotal campaign observations from having spent the past week in Catalonia. Unionist parties are basically invisible outside Barcelona and its suburbs. Smaller provincial towns have Junts and ERC placards on like every other lamppost, plus a good deal of CUP, who must have a huge pile of money or at least activists. Barcelona has a lot of PSC and some Comuns, but they’re still dwarfed by Junts, ERC and CUP. Vox has a few posters too, as does PACMA, some weird Spanish nationalist party appealing to disgruntled PSC voters and a separate campaign by ERC’s youth org. I saw much less PP posters than I’d expect (one) and exactly as much Cs posters as I’d expect (zero). What does all this mean? Idk, probably not much.

It’s kind of funny how basically every poster apart from Junts and CUP is literally just the party leader. CUP have some meaningless vague platitudes about “defending the country”, while Junts have a picture of Puigdemont looking wistfully out of a windows + meaningless vague platitudes about muh català and muh independència.

[Velasco]

But Cs is a party that calls itself "liberal" and has nothing to lose but its dignity. Either "liberal" means adherence to the values of liberal democracy (a somewhat "classical" definition), or it means freedom to do whatever you please as long as you can pay (the definition of Ayuso and Milei). You choose

Liberalism in the Spanish tradition is really little more than anti-clericalism.

Spanish liberalism in the XIX and XX centuries was often characterized by anti-clericalism, possibly due to the reactionary character of the Spanish Church and the French influence. I wouldn't say there's a single tradition of Spanish Liberalism. There have been always different brands of liberalism, either with progressive or conservative leanings. Perhaps Cs could be related to a liberal tradition characterized by a staunch nationalism and centralist leanings (nation states rose in the XIX Century)

However, there's a tradition of progressive liberalism in Spain, represented by people like Manuel Azaña, that crystallized with the advent of the II Republic. Cs has never vindicated the political or intellectual legacy of the Spanish republicans, even though Cs folks claimed that the great Clara Campoamor (the woman who fought and won the battle for women's suffrage in 1932) was one of them.  Clara Campoamor was a member of the centre-right Radical Party, but most of the (male) deputies that voted in favor of her proposal were socialist. Most Spanish liberals that played a role during the II Republic went to exile with the breaking of the Civil War and Franco's subsequent victory.

Let's remember Ciutadans was a small party born in Catalonia in the first years of the XXI Century. it was founded by certain people that were more or less close to the PSC, but grew discontent with the hegemony of Catalan nationalism. They also criticized the PSC for being too close to nationalists (socialists and post-communists in Catalonia regard themselves as "catalanist"). During the first years Cs focused its criticism on cultural and language policies - particularly the linguistic immersion in Catalan schools.

It was nearly a decade later when Cs and its young leader Albert Rivera found the opportunity to jump into national politics, amidst a crisis of the two party system that coincided with other multiple crises (economic crisis, territorial crisis, crisis of representativity). Cs began to grow with voters discontent with the PP and its popularity boosted at the peak of the Catalan conflict. Somewhere along the way Cs scrapped "social democracy" from the charters and from then Cs folks said they were only "liberals", trying to become the new PP...

 There was people like Toni Roldán that possibly were liberals in a true sense of the word - he couldn't understand the cooperation with the iliberal Vox party.  Others like Juan Carlos Girauta were always staunch reactionaries. Girauta is the number 3 in the Vox EP slate this year 2024

On the other hand, anti-clericalism is a thing of the past. The influence of the Spanish Church has diminished with the increasing secularization of society. Cs is certainly a secular party and advocates controversial (abhorrent in my view) policies like surrogacy

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

You always have great explanations Velasco. Thank you

[Velasco]

[Estrella]

Why does left and unionists do so well in Tarragona? It seems that in 2017 Cs did better there than in Barcelona and it’s consistently the best province for PP and second best for PSC/Sumar. Is it just less Catalan-speaking for some reason?

[Velasco]

Why does left and unionists do so well in Tarragona? It seems that in 2017 Cs did better there than in Barcelona and it’s consistently the best province for PP and second best for PSC/Sumar. Is it just less Catalan-speaking for some reason?

The Tarragona province is diverse and there are no uniform patterns. The "unionist" vote is stronger in the coastal municipalities (more populated), while inland counties have a strong nationalist/separatist vote. The southern parts of the province around the Lower Ebro appear to have different patterns *the municipalities by the river are ERC strongholds, while the area around Gandesa is more conservative).  I think the nationalist/separatist vote has incresed in the Lands of the Ebro since the 2000s, when the Aznar government tried to pass a controversial water scheme (Plan Hidrológico Nacional) that was strongly opposed by the local people.

 The reason why the vote for "unionist" parties is stronger in the coast is demographic and I think there is not a great difference with the patterns in other provinces. However, municipal results reveal the vote for PP, Cs or Vox is particularly strong in the Tarragona-Salou area. in the 2017 elections, Cs got around 35% in Tarragona municipality and around 45% in Vila-seca and Salou, while Vox performed remarkably well there in 2021 (11.8% Tarragona,  18% Salou and 19% Vila-seca). The Port Aventura theme park is located between Vila-seca and Salou.  For comparison, the vote for nationalist parties was slightly stronger in the nearby Reus, the second largest town in the province (ERC won a plurality getting 20 7%, while PSC got 20 5%, Junts 19.6% and Vox 10%)

Checking other 2021 local results reveals that vox and Cs performed better than average un Cambrils (another coastal resort town), while regional centres like Tortosa, Amposta or Valls have a strong nationalist vote