Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

What, no Ecole Catholique King-Edward?

[MaxQue]

What, no Ecole Catholique King-Edward?

Does someone is surprised they aren't named about the rulers of the anglican Church?

[adma]

On ground level, one can also tell when the area has bilingual street signage, etc (definitely the case in the appropriate parts of Essex, Penetang, Welland)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my alternate proposal for Newfoundland (with Labrador = 0.5 ridings instead of 1): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/12/newfoundland-and-labrador-alternate.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Of note: If Labrador was abolished, there would be no change in partisan control. Just a switch. The new Labrador-St. Barbe-Baie Verte seat would go Liberal while Avalon would go Tory.

[minionofmidas]

Each commission finalizes its report on the new electoral districts no later than December 21, 2012. The CEO may grant a two-month extension if requested. (section 20).

To come: Ontario, Quebec, BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Any bets?

Well, they haven't looked to keen on extension. Maybe so close to the deadline and now the public hearings are done, they can give an extension (for example to complete the translation). If not, the next three days will be busy for reports!

Or some will deposit late, like Quebec last time.

So have there been extensions or are they just all reporting late?

[MaxQue]

Each commission finalizes its report on the new electoral districts no later than December 21, 2012. The CEO may grant a two-month extension if requested. (section 20).

To come: Ontario, Quebec, BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Any bets?

Well, they haven't looked to keen on extension. Maybe so close to the deadline and now the public hearings are done, they can give an extension (for example to complete the translation). If not, the next three days will be busy for reports!

Or some will deposit late, like Quebec last time.

So have there been extensions or are they just all reporting late?

No clue.

[trebor204]

Don't expect any more reports any time soon.

The reports have to be tabled in the House of Commons first.

The House of Commons is adjourned until Monday Jan 28th

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=nouveau&document=index&lang=e

[Wilfred Day]

I just heard from someone who presented in Oshawa November 13, 2012, that, after the hearing, those presenters got an e-mail from the Commission stating that the Commission was preparing a revised proposal and they would be notified of a second round hearing in Oshawa in due course. Which I suppose will be posted on the Commission website next week.

[Philly D.]

Less than 24 hours until Parliament reconvenes. Then the New Brunswick, B.C. and Saskatchewan reports will be tabled and become available (Quebec and Ontario are in extension, and I wouldn't be shocked if Ontario missed the second deadline.)

Will we still have Miramichi as a negative exception, next to a near positive exception? The prognosis is not good -- initial proposals tend to be more equal than the reports.

Will B.C. still have a riding crossing the Burrard Inlet?

And of course, will Saskatchewan have urban-only ridings? It seems that the presentations leaned negative. At the very least, a third mixed riding.

[DL]

The new maps are out for NB, SK and BC. NB shows little change from the first proposal. In Saskatchewan the all-urban ridings have survived and Saskatoon makes way more sense than before. In BC, Surrey has been rejigged to be way better for the NDP and ditto with Vancouver Island - unfortunately north Burnaby is still stuck folded in with North Vancouver.

[Hatman 🍁]

Better news, not perfect though. Perhaps the NB borders will be ruled illegal.

[Wilfred Day]

Perhaps the NB borders will be ruled illegal.

They are now +13.95%, +12.23%, +9.33%, +8.84%, +5.62%, +5.61%, –7.91%, –9.94%, –16.74%, and –21.00%. What might be illegal?

[Wilfred Day]

In Saskatchewan the all-urban ridings have survived and Saskatoon makes way more sense than before.

The dissent is weird. "I ask that the parliamentary committee reject the proposal put forward by Mr. Justice Mills and Professor Courtney of the Saskatchewan Commission. I would also ask that the committee request the commission to redraft the federal electoral boundaries report in order to come back with fairer representation for Regina and Saskatoon and to revisit the blended urban-rural ridings requested by approximately 75% of all submissions received." Does he seriously think the majority will change their minds if the Conservative MPs ask them to? The MPs already made their views well-known and well-supported by submissions that the other two Commissioners, thank heavens, rejected. Is this a man who can't see that the horse he has been flogging has just died?

In BC, Surrey has been rejigged to be way better for the NDP and ditto with Vancouver Island - unfortunately north Burnaby is still stuck folded in with North Vancouver.

And Penticton is still united with Rossland/Trail and Castlegar.
The first proposal took the NDP down to only one Surrey riding. Will the final report restore two? Prospects for more?
South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca was going to have a transposed NDP majority of 115 votes. Will Cowichan—Malahat—Langford have a higher one?

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps the NB borders will be ruled illegal.

They are now +13.95%, +12.23%, +9.33%, +8.84%, +5.62%, +5.61%, –7.91%, –9.94%, –16.74%, and –21.00%. What might be illegal?

Oh, so there must have been a big enough shift. Wasn't the Miramichi district above 25% before?

[DL]

The first proposal took the NDP down to only one Surrey riding. Will the final report restore two? Prospects for more?
South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca was going to have a transposed NDP majority of 115 votes. Will Cowichan—Malahat—Langford have a higher one?

I'm pretty sure that the final map gives the NDP two Surrey seats: Surrey Centre (actually a renamed Surrey North) and Surrey-Newton. The other good news is that I think the new boundaries make North Vancouver Island and Courtney-Alberni either notionally NDP or at least much lower hanging fruit than they were before.

[lilTommy]

The first proposal took the NDP down to only one Surrey riding. Will the final report restore two? Prospects for more?
South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca was going to have a transposed NDP majority of 115 votes. Will Cowichan—Malahat—Langford have a higher one?

I'm pretty sure that the final map gives the NDP two Surrey seats: Surrey Centre (actually a renamed Surrey North) and Surrey-Newton. The other good news is that I think the new boundaries make North Vancouver Island and Courtney-Alberni either notionally NDP or at least much lower hanging fruit than they were before.

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?
Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

[minionofmidas]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

[DL]

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?
Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

Keep in mind that Port Moody was part of James Moore's riding last time and the NDP made no effort there...historically the NDP has actually done quite well in Port Moody and wins it provincially as well, so i think that Fin Donnelly could probably drive up the NDP vote there to its "natural" level if it became part of his riding.

[MaxQue]

The first proposal took the NDP down to only one Surrey riding. Will the final report restore two? Prospects for more?
South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca was going to have a transposed NDP majority of 115 votes. Will Cowichan—Malahat—Langford have a higher one?

I'm pretty sure that the final map gives the NDP two Surrey seats: Surrey Centre (actually a renamed Surrey North) and Surrey-Newton. The other good news is that I think the new boundaries make North Vancouver Island and Courtney-Alberni either notionally NDP or at least much lower hanging fruit than they were before.

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?
Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

No idea, but the law allows to move the deadline at the end of February if a commission needs it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

Well at current half of Dieppe is in Beausejour and half of Riverview is in Fundy, basically. Which basically means that little, uh, "metro area" (Americans WOULD call it one!) is split between three seats.
I've no idea about the distribution of the francophone population, apart from the obvious that it's highest in Dieppe. If Moncton has heavily Francophone parts and they're anywhere near Dieppe then... OTOH if Riverview too is actually more Franco than Moncton then your proposal makes more sense.

[MaxQue]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

New Brunswick is complicated to redistrict because of language. It's the only bilingual province, so there is French and English areas. And the French minority isn't afraid to sue to make its rights respected (see the 2005 special redistricting), so the commission must proceed with caution.

[Wilfred Day]

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?

The first proposal for Port Moody—Coquitlam had transposed results of Conservative by 361 votes.

If you assume Kennedy Stewart flees to Burnaby South (even though the majority of his riding goes to Burnaby North—Seymour, while the majority of the first proposal for Burnaby South—Deer Lake came from Burnaby--New Westminster) then Peter Julian goes to New Westminster--Burnaby (which is indeed where the majority of his riding goes), and Fin Donnelly goes to Port Moody-Coquitlam where the majority of his riding goes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

New Brunswick is complicated to redistrict because of language. It's the only bilingual province, so there is French and English areas. And the French minority isn't afraid to sue to make its rights respected (see the 2005 special redistricting), so the commission must proceed with caution.

And yet when the commission in 2003 tried to lump some French areas in Tobique-Mactaquac into Madawaska-Restigouche, there is was a lot of opposition. Someone asked the commission to do it this time, and they said no based on the same reasons (apparently there is harmony between the linguistic groups there, and they are all a bunch of potato farmers).

For interests sake, here is a linguistic map of the province: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-642-x/2011005/map-carte/map-carte12-eng.gif (you can see the franco area in the NW crossing into Victoria County)