Brighton Pavilion Poll:
GRN 35% (+14)
CON 27% (+4)
LAB 25% (-13)
LD 11% (-5)
I'm always skeptic of constituency polls, this one included, but I'm rather puzzled over the little movement for the Conservatives since 2005. It's quite clear that the Greenies are taking a significant share of the Labour and LibDem vote, but why are the Conservatives relatively static and their gains here being under the national swing from Labour to Tory (+6-9% for the Tories nationally over 2005).
If ICM do this one right, there should have been weighting by past vote. It's not the best seat to poll because it's a seat where the Greens are challenging and can target above all else. On the old school swing, it is still an 8.5% swing Labour to Conservative. Looking at a poll like this, on the day I expect the Tories to win the seat simply based on the 'blue rinse' turnout (though their numbers are significantly less than in Kemptown) with a majority of a few hundred.
Not a bad poll when you peel away at it, simply because of the collapse in the Labour vote. A collapse of this sort, even if the Tories were to stand still is still a 7% swing in their favour.
What we really need are marginal s
