Australia General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

The polls seem to be rather bouncy depending on whether they're conducted early or later in the month, at least recently. If this trend continues and dare I say, Lab takes the lead then Abbott will be in deep trouble. So I'll wait a bit before worrying. Agreed w/Polnut and CS. However worst-case, who'd replace Abbott? Can't replace someone with no one. Nelson and Turnbull faceplanted as leader already, so  guess that leaves Hockey?

[RogueBeaver]

Rinehart's family drama continues.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/rinehart-dispute-to-kick-into-new-year-20121107-28yid.html

[RogueBeaver]

Even if Abbott wins he can't repeal it or the mining taxes without 39 Senate seats, which he might never get. Certainly not at this election.

[RogueBeaver]

Same poll has the Coalition at 53/47 and  Abbott's personals down to -24. Plus a couple of rebuffed attempts with star candidates recently.

[RogueBeaver]

No political gain and no means of repealing it in the first term. (Could they cut the rates substantially as a first step?) This defensive policy crouch is quite unhealthy to say the least.

[RogueBeaver]

This is what happens when you throw anything remotely controversial overboard and run on anti-incumbency/Generic Party. Since Abbott has nothing to say on policy, he's stuck with this sort of stuff.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/attack-dog-methods-bite-coalition-leader-20121216-2bhkp.html

[RogueBeaver]

Truth be told I think Abbott is more of a values pol than anything. But it goes beyond him... as I said, the Coalition lost their policy nerve 5 years ago and show no sign of getting it back under anyone currently floated for leadership. I hope Howard has made his views known privately about this.

[RogueBeaver]

I meant in the sense of principles but no policies. As for leadership, the choice was between a risk and a proven failure. There's a mold but none of the current leadership cadre fits it... will have to wait for the next generation.

Abbott will win but as I said a victory by default. Since he can't repeal in his first term, he'll have to try back doors and balancing the budget. Otherwise just running Labor's machine.

[RogueBeaver]

If current polls hold up she might play for time- not to win, but for triage and succession purposes.

[RogueBeaver]

Narrative's pretty bad already (), but agreed on August.

[RogueBeaver]

Last Newspoll was 54-46... back to where things started. If Labor loses cleanly (but no QLD wipeout with Rudd and Swan losing), then who do you think would take the leadership?

[RogueBeaver]

Of the realistic candidates I'd say Shorten should be the one Coalitionists hope for, given how gaffeomatic he is. (Which is why I doubt he'd get it, particularly after the "ministerial salary isn't high enough" thing) I know Combet was a major player in the WC war, but otherwise what's he like in terms of skills and ideology? Smith- heard mixed things about him. Swan strikes me as a hardnosed e-rat but he's the Tax Guy, closely tied to Gillard and publicly nuked Rudd last year. Plus his seat is far from safe.

What about the faceless men- specifically the House ones? What's their skillset or ideological leaning? Just curious if any of those younger guys might be interested in stepping from the shadows and becoming king rather than powerbroker.

[RogueBeaver]

Didn't hear about that particular Newspoll, but nor do I think Abbott will have a 1996-style victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? I don't see this going well if Downer does jump in. When was the last time a big federal name successfully transitioned to state politics?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/alexander-downer-close-to-making-call-to-lead-south-australian-liberals/story-e6frgczx-1226555452184

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Howard's been on the record on that subject numerous times during his travels in the States. And he knows perfectly well how the politics work out. Needless to say I'm happy he's still politically engaged even if I disagree with him on this particular issue.

Back to Draft Downer: SA and federal Liberals are keen on this.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/01/17/anyone-but-isobel-downers-comeback-might-have-legs/

[RogueBeaver]

Redmond wants Downer to publicly clarify his position. I for one don't believe he'll make the jump until it happens. Shades of Costello's '08 tease IMO. Door opens a crack then is bolted shut.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/isobel-redmond-urges-downer-to-clear-up-leadership-speculation/story-fndo1z0b-1226559516211

[RogueBeaver]

Sorry to interrupt, but this NT preselection seems to be blowing up in Gillard's face.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/national/they-dont-know-me-peris-fights-back/story-fndor8bb-1226560425173

[RogueBeaver]

So September 25. Surprised she's calling it this early, a nine month campaign, yay.....

14 September...

It's actually a brilliant move...

How?

[RogueBeaver]

Abbott's major policy, so far as I can tell, is Balance & Repeal. Is there anything else of note?

On another note, Swan's silly Republisquirrel.

[RogueBeaver]

If we're talking '96 style cuts then Abbott and this bunch certainly aren't the ones to do that. Another way might be slowly cutting the rate. But I'm not one for pessimism, even if it'll take a long time one shouldn't give up.

[RogueBeaver]

Isobel Redmond has resigned the SA Lib leadership, half her caucus wants to replace her. Downer still not interested and reconfirmed that today. Never thought he was in the first place.

[RogueBeaver]

Thomson arrested, oodles of fraud charges.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-31/craig-thomson-arrested/4493722

[RogueBeaver]

Just happened in the past few hours. Thomson should be interesting... paging Paul Kelly.

[RogueBeaver]

She's rather granola-ish, amirite?

[RogueBeaver]

Trish Crossin fires back at Gillard, says she was unfairly dismissed and not even given a patronage post. Dunno why Gillardites would switch: isn't like Rudd is particularly huggable either, as they all know.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/national/im-offering-you-nothing-julia-gillards-response-to-dumped-senator-trish-crossin/story-fndo4gtr-1226572146614