KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Brittain33]

This is such a Bredesen opportunity for Dems, isn't it? Not getting my hopes up we'll break our 80+ year streak of losses in KS Senate races.

[Brittain33]

I know 3 Democrats who decided not to vote for Gonzalez because of his proposal to tax college endowments. 2 worked for Harvard; the 3rd didn’t but said it showed he wasn’t ready for prime time. The 3rd did not vote for Baker. At least one of the other 2 did.

We can’t talk about a Democratic floor of 40% and peg a number like that to it because we have almost no data points from the last 20 years of a Republican romping like Baker. You have to go back to Weld in 1994, probably. It’s most likely that Gonzalez *defined* the Democratic floor rather than that he’s an exception who fell below it.

[Brittain33]

LaTurner is an interesting last name. I wonder if it's a corruption of Letourneau.

[Brittain33]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

[Brittain33]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

I’d love to believe it but there is literally no precedent in 50+ years for Dems winning statewide for a federal race under any circumstances, and that was the Goldwater election.

[Brittain33]

It is pretty clear that the Kavanaugh vote ended Heitkamp's hopes of a comeback and doomed both McCaskill and Donnelly, Bredesen's equivocation on the Kavanaugh issue also doomed him. Also it is clear that the Kavanaugh voted saved Manchin.

Just curious, how do you think we can know that with any confidence?

[Brittain33]

Nancy Boyda considering

A Democrat who lost reelection in 2008, even Kobach would beat her

I don't think she's a particularly strong candidate, but she lost in 2008 because the district was too R, her opponent was strong, and she'd defeated a tainted incumbent (Jim Ryun) in '06 to win in the first place.

[Brittain33]

Jorge Ramos used the term before the last Dem debate.

[Brittain33]

Jorge Ramos used the term before the last Dem debate.

And then proceeded not to use it during the debate, which I found rather interesting. Any idea why?

Guessing wildly, it may not be part of his natural vocabulary because of his age but he felt it was important for a prepared intro?

[Brittain33]

I think the only hope for Republicans here is for Pompeo to change his mind.

With KS gone, CO almost certainly gone and AZ possibly gone, the Republicans may end up with just 51 senators.

Please, I would love Kobach to be a loser but this race is Lean R at best for Democrats, and probably Likely R.

[Brittain33]

For those of you who think this is Safe R even with Kobach and that KS couldn’t possibly be more competitive than, say, IA or CO:

“National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly,” writes the Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor. “In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo. Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/this-is-how-democrats-flip-senate/

This polling may be manipulated to show Kobach losing in order to hurt his primary campaign and get other Republicans in. I wouldn’t take it at face value.

[Brittain33]

Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton are more dangerous than generic R because of the extremes they’re willing to go to.