The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Because she's dropped hints over the past few years indicating presidential ambition, I kind of figured that Klobuchar would run for reelection for her Senate seat in 2018, before running for prez in 2020.  However, it looks like some are speculating that she may run for governor instead:

http://www.startribune.com/last-election-barely-past-minnesota-s-next-governor-s-race-gets-going/402072125/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Hmm, I don't see her running for President in 2020 if she's just starting a first term as Governor.

Yeah, she'd have to launch her presidential candidacy less than ~six months after being sworn in as governor.  I don't see it happening.

That said, all we really have here is rumors that she's interested in the governorship.  No idea if it's based on anything real.

[Mr. Morden]

Greg Giroux ‏@greggiroux  45m45 minutes ago
Senator-elect @KamalaHarris (D-CA) has set up a leadership PAC: Fearless for the People PAC
http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?_201611210300119592+0  #casen #capolitics



Doesn't necessarily mean much though.

Speaking of PACs, it looks like on Martin O'Malley's Twitter account, he still links to the O'Say Can You See PAC that supported him in the primaries:

https://martinomalley.com

According to the FEC, it had $57,000 cash on hand remaining a the end of September:

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00525220/1108401/

I assume it'll start fundraising again if O'Malley decides to run again.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand reaching out to Hillary's donors.

Interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Again, can we please move these lengthy debates about who the best nominee would be to other threads?  This thread is about news on the potential presidential candidates.  Nothing wrong with riffing a bit on some of that news to express your opinion on a candidate when his/her name comes up in one of the news stories, but the idea is not to initiate debates on who the nominee should be out of thin air.

[Mr. Morden]

Some guy tweets “Can’t wait for your presidential run in 2020” to Booker, and his response tweet doesn’t deny it. 

https://twitter.com/CoryBooker/status/801991881722855424

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Booker’s response:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Btw, since there’s been talk of both Cory Booker 2020 and (apparently) Tim Scott 2020 recently, might as well note that Booker and Scott both visited Israel back in August:

http://njjewishnews.com/article/32023/booker-finds-common-ground-in-israel#.WDiBiaIrK1s

In recent election cycles, Israel has become a perennial foreign stop for US presidential candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

Because she's dropped hints over the past few years indicating presidential ambition, I kind of figured that Klobuchar would run for reelection for her Senate seat in 2018, before running for prez in 2020.  However, it looks like some are speculating that she may run for governor instead:

http://www.startribune.com/last-election-barely-past-minnesota-s-next-governor-s-race-gets-going/402072125/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Followup to this: Like I said, I'm assuming that if she runs for governor, it means she's not planning to run for president in 2020.  That said, being elected governor might increase her chances of being on the 2020 ticket as VP.  If the Dems nominate a man for prez, then he might feel compelled to pick a woman as his running mate.  And there might be a political calculation to choose a woman from the Midwest rather than from the coasts.  There are only so many such options available, and if Klobuchar could add executive experience to her legislative experience, that could give her an advantage.

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders on Meet the Press this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

He was on Face the Nation last week.  Is he going to be a regular fixture on these shows for the duration of Trump's term?

Update for this week: Sanders on both This Week and State of the Union.  Yes, I guess he is going to be on the Sunday shows every week.  None of the other 2020 Dems are on this week or last.  Cruz and Rubio are both on the Sunday shows this week though, but I guess they're more like laying the groundwork for 2024.  (Seriously though, I assume they're on in large part because of Castro.)

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story about all the Republican presidential prospects who thought they’d be gearing up for 2020, but are now waiting until 2024 because of Trump’s win:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-republicans-cruz-rubio-231717

They mention a New Hampshire trip taken by Ernst shortly before the election that I hadn’t noticed btw.  But anyway, I don’t see Ernst challenging Trump for the nomination, so I guess that belongs in the future “Who is running in 2024?” thread.  As for the others:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

For some strange reason, a reporter asked Rep. Joe Kennedy if he was interested in running for president:

http://wpri.com/2016/11/19/congressman-kennedy-trump-should-work-to-unify-america/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Under the category of “I wasn’t really paying attention to the Dem. 2020 primary implications at the time, but with Trump winning this is suddenly relevant”…..looks like Franken, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and Warren all did some campaigning for Clinton and/or Hassan in New Hampshire during the fall campaign:

http://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2016/10/hassan-kuster-gillibrand-and-britton-advocate-for-clinton
https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2016/10/no-re-election-line-franken-and-klobuchar-step-party
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/09/24/elizabeth-warren-rallies-new-hampshire-for-clinton-and-hassan/EFfG16UkVOjTCoV3gWuDOK/story.html

Franken also used his PAC to give $ to Dem. candidates nationwide:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As noted way earlier in this thread, Gillibrand and Klobuchar also campaigned for Clinton in Iowa shortly before the caucuses back at the beginning of the year, as did Booker and Castro, among others.

Booker also campaigned for Clinton in NH before the primary there:

http://www.wmur.com/article/new-jersey-senator-campaigns-for-clinton-in-new-hampshire-1/5206715

Then he talked to the NH delegation at the DNC, and did an interview about his NH visits, saying that he’d “fallen in love” with the state:

http://www.nh1.com/news/booker-tells-nh1-news-nh-is-a-place-that-i-ve-now-fallen-in-love-with-/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Addendum to the previous message: Looks like O'Malley also campaigned for Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire over the summer:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-martin-o-malley-is-headed-back-to-iowa-for-hillary-clinton-20160622-story.html

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-martin-o-malley-to-campaign-for-clinton-in-pennsylvania-20160715-story.html

And Booker campaigned for Clinton in the South Carolina primary:

http://www.gettyimages.com/event/presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton-holds-south-carolina-town-hall-events-606998899?#senator-cory-booker-a-democrat-from-new-jersey-speaks-during-a-town-picture-id512312102

So this year so far, we have the following early state visits:

Booker: IA, NH, & SC
Julian Castro: IA (when he was in the running for VP)
de Blasio: IA
Franken: NH
Gillibrand: IA & NH
Kaine: IA, NH, & SC (but he was first running for VP, and then the VP nominee, so what do you expect?)
Klobuchar: IA & NH
O’Malley: IA & NH (not just when he was running for president himself, but during the GE campaign for Clinton)
Sanders: IA & NH (not just when he was running for president himself, but during the GE campaign for Clinton)
Warren: NH

Then at the DNC over the summer, we had:

Booker: spoke to the IA and NH delegations
Joaquin Castro: spoke to the IA and SC delegations
Julian Castro: spoke to the IA delegation
Klobuchar: spoke to the IA and SC delegations
O’Malley: spoke to the IA delegation
Sanders: spoke to the IA delegation

[Mr. Morden]

^Sanders campaigned for Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire during the general election as well.

OK, added that.

[Mr. Morden]

Maria Comella, a former Christie aide (and operative in previous Republican presidential campaigns) who ended up backing Clinton over Trump this year, has gone to work for Cuomo:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/christie-aide-advising-cuomo-article-1.2888935

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Fournier says Clinton is keeping her options open.

Reminds me of Kerry in 2008 if true.

Now she just needs to make a botched joke about being stuck in Iraq.

[Mr. Morden]

Another item from years ago that's worth looking at again, now that Trump's victory means an open Dem. primary contest in 2020: Deval Patrick said in 2014 that he wasn't going to run for president in 2016, but wouldn't rule out running for national office at some later date:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2014/02/23/governor-patrick-says-maybe-presidential-run-after-election/vGG5tmuFRE7q2nbduEwrxL/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

There are both Cory Booker 2020 and Elizabeth Warren 2020 Facebook pages:

https://www.facebook.com/PresidentCoryBooker/
https://www.facebook.com/VoteforElizabethWarren/

Looks like this page is actually more active than either of those two:

https://www.facebook.com/tulsi2020/

[Mr. Morden]

There are both Cory Booker 2020 and Elizabeth Warren 2020 Facebook pages:

https://www.facebook.com/PresidentCoryBooker/
https://www.facebook.com/VoteforElizabethWarren/

Looks like this page is actually more active than either of those two:

https://www.facebook.com/tulsi2020/

The FB page "Run Tulsi Run" is extremely active. Many of the commenters are anti-Hillary, pro-Bernie, and even pro-Trump. I have to admit that I like Gabbard but it is a really, really oddball mix on that page.

Are any of these actually associated with a PAC or with a broader movement?

No, these are just freelancers, AFAIK.

[Mr. Morden]

Though Kaine has said he’s not running for prez in 2020, it’s too early for us to take such denials to the bank.  So it’s worth flagging this:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/tim-kaine-california-fundraisers-231977

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, there are multiple "Draft Michelle Obama" PACs out there now:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/307902-ready-for-michelle-pacs-urge-2020-run

Meanwhile, Barack says she's never going to run (reiterating her own previous comments on the matter):

http://www.theroot.com/articles/news/2016/11/president-obama-michelle-will-never-run-for-office/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Latest on Julian Castro:

http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/gilbert_garcia/article/Castro-in-holding-pattern-while-rumors-swirl-10643379.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Mark Warner says he is not considering a 2020 presidential run:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/11/30/mark-warner-rules-out-2020-white-house-run-window-is-probably-shut/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  3m3 minutes ago
Hard not to read into it a LITTLE when ambitious pols go to Iowa. Jason Kander→Des Moines for the Progress Iowa holiday party next month.

Yeah but he's obviously NOT running for prez. So what do you think it is? DNC Chair?

Not sure why a trip to Iowa would help one get elected DNC Chair.  Maybe he is hoping to run for prez, but in 2024 or 2028, after he wins some other office first.  Never too early to start laying the groundwork for 2028. 

[Mr. Morden]

Franken says he will not run for president in 2020:

https://www.yahoo.com/tv/sen-al-franken-rejects-2020-presidential-run-exclusive-221600004.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of candidates use the loophole of saying they are "not running for president" meaning they will focus on their current job and helping their constituents... until such time that they run for president three years down the road.

In this particular statement though, Franken's office doesn't just say that he's "not running for president".  It says he's not going to run in 2020 (so they cover the future tense).  Compare that to the recent comments by Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Warren:

http://www.registerstar.com/news/article_53afce3e-ade6-11e6-9e2d-770246b848ab.html

Representatives from Gillibrand’s office said she is committed to her current role and plans to run again for the Senate in the next election.

"Sen. Gillibrand is focused on her job in the U.S. Senate and plans on running for re-election in 2018," Gillibrand spokesman Marc Brumer said.

Both Cuomo and Warren are asked about 2020:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/which-democrats-could-challenge-donald-trump-in-2020-presidentia/

Cuomo

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Warren

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In those cases, they're just deflecting the question.  Not even making the pretense of making a denial of interest in running.  Whereas the Franken statement is more of a real denial.

That's not to say that the Franken statement is the last word on Franken 2020.  It's way too early to take that as the last word.  (E.g., Obama gave a real denial on 2008 as well, and then flip-flopped on it.)  But in general, the politicians who are already playing the game of "non-denials" are the ones who tend to be most likely to run.