New Jersey goes Republican?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Using the demographic calculator, and keeping all non-white democraphics the same, I had to push college educated w whites to 70% Trump and non-college educated to 74% Trump to get New Jersey to flip.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Jersey's 2010 Census demographics:

68.6% White American
13.7% African American
0.3% Native American
8.3% Asian American
6.4% other races
2.7% Multiracial American
17.7% of the population were Hispanic or Latino (of any race).

Looking at that, explain how Trump gets to 50%.

1. TRUMP doesn't need to get 50% to win. 49%ish would be enough.
(Garry Johnson,Jill Stein)

2. Considering turnouts
Election 2016 in NJ: Demographcis would be
White 67% | Black 15% | Hispanic 12% | Asian 5% | Other 1%
(in 2012, ass CNN Exit Poll, it was White 67% | Black 18% | Latino 10% | Asian 3%)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NJ/president/

But I don't think Turnouts of Black voters would so high like 2012.(Hillary is popular with Black. but not enough to induce massive turnouts of black like Obama)

White 67% x 60.5% = 40.53%
Black 15% x 12% = 1.8%
Hispanic 12% x 35% = 4.2%
Asian 5% x 45% = 2.25%
Other 1% x 35% = 0.35%

Total 49.13%

it's not an easy goal, but not an impossible goal either.
if TRUMP unifies the GOP fully and gets 90% of them.
Attract the Reagan Democrats well and gets 15% of them.
He gets 55%+ of the Independent.

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, a higher percentage of the white vote than Romney got nationally...in New Jersey. And 35% of Hispanics? Complete wishful thinking.

Also IT'S 2016 THRE IS NO SUCH THING AS "REAGAN DEMOCRATS"

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1. This NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll had '12507' Yuge RV.
2016 General Election - Clinton 48%, Trump 45% (NBC News/SurveyMonkey 5/9-5/15)
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-s-guns-schools-plan-way-out-n578161

2. at this Poll, Hispanic: Hillary 65% | TRUMP 28% | No Answer 7%
if I convert it without no answer, TRUMP 28 / 93 =  30.1%.

3. So, Once he got 30%ish Hispanic support of the Yuge RV National Poll
why 35% Hispanic Support in NJ is an impossible goal?
[/quote]

The 30% Hispanic number is assuming Hispanics break 50/50, a very naive assumption with Trump's campaign. It also doesn't take into account that Republicans often overpoll with Hispanics because non English speaking ones are very heavily D.

But besides all that even if the number is 30%, why would NJ Hispanics be significantly MORE conservative than nationally? Republican Hispanics are clustered mostly in Florida, Texas and other Southwest states. NJ ones meanwhile are quite urban.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238196.0