The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone know if it's largely just supporters of the winning party who tend to go to all the "inaugural balls" in DC on presidential inauguration day?

I ask because if these things tend to be bipartisan, then I'm wondering if any of the 2020 Dems will go to this (Iowa's inauguration party in DC):

http://www.iowasociety.com/inauguration-2017/
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/first-in-the-nation-inauguration-celebration-tickets-29791374804?aff=erelexpmlt

In 2013, both Biden and Klobuchar went to it, for example.  Neither of them ended up running in 2016, of course, but they were both thinking about it at the time.  But if it's going to be attended only by Republicans celebrating the Trump victory this time, then I guess it's a moot point.  Though in that case, I guess if any Republican VIPs show up, it's a sign that they're thinking about primarying Trump in four years. 

[Mr. Morden]

Doesn't look like any of the 2020 Dems will be on the Sunday morning talk shows this week:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

Another Gillibrand non-denial (this one from Gillibrand herself rather than a spokesman):

http://wnyt.com/news/gillibrand-mattis-regional-food-bank-president-2020/4333883/

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gov-cuomo-seek-reelection-run-president-article-1.2874698

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Revisiting this non-denial denial from two weeks ago, I guess this is the exact wording:

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2016/11/asked-about-2020-cuomo-says-run-in-2018-107374

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"I plan to run for reelection and that's it" seems to have been enough for Wikipedia to say that Cuomo has already declined to run for prez in 2020.  But I don't know.  Reading that answer as a whole, it sounds like a classic non-denial denial to me.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden might run. https://twitter.com/KellyO/status/805923064382898177

If you take that quote at face value, then he's already announced his candidacy. 

[Mr. Morden]

A couple of pages ago in this thread, I noted how Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar sneakily all did some campaigning in both Iowa and New Hampshire this past year either for Clinton or for other Democratic candidates.  Well, if we’re now going to take Joe Biden 2020 as a serious topic of conversation, I just tried searching for the places where he campaigned for Clinton this year.  One early primary/caucus state he campaigned in was Nevada:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/joe-biden-campaigns-hillary-clinton-nevada-candidates-during-las-vegas

Otherwise, he was stumping for Clinton in FL, NC, OH, PA, and WI this fall.  No Iowa or New Hampshire that I could find.  But I just did a quick Google search, so maybe it’s there, and I just didn’t find it.

[Mr. Morden]

I keep wondering why James Lankford is never talked about for the Republican nom? Can anyone explain?

Has he done anything to indicate that he's interested in running?  The people I'm talking about in this thread are people who have done *something* to indicate that they might be interested in running.

In any case, with Trump presumably running for reelection in 2020, it's not even clear that the GOP nomination will be contested.  If it is contested, I'm guessing that it'll be someone from the "Liberty wing" of the party, with Justin Amash being the most likely.  Amash actually made multiple statements in the last year to indicate that he's interesting in running for president some day, and he's so far been chief critic of Trump within the Republican caucus in the House.  He tweets some criticism of Trump's comments or policies every few days, while all the other Congressional Republicans are playing nice (for now).

[Mr. Morden]

Dan Malloy has been reelected as chair of the DGA:

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-dga-chair-again-20161205-story.html

I don’t know if Malloy actually has presidential ambitions, but DGA chair is a job that gives you an excuse to travel around the country raising money, and many past DGA and RGA chairs have gone on to run for president.

Malloy has made several trips to both Iowa and New Hampshire in the past year and a half.  First, he went to New Hampshire in August 2015 to campaign for Clinton:

http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Malloy-to-stump-for-Hillary-Clinton-in-New-6457863.php

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Then back to NH in November 2015:

http://www.walb.com/story/30444356/connecticut-governor-to-stump-for-clinton-in-new-hampshire

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Then Iowa in December:

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-iowa-hillary-clinton-1218-20151217-story.html

Then back to NH to stump for Clinton in January:

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-campaigns-new-hampshire-clinton-20160129-story.html

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Then back to Iowa in July for the National Governors Association meeting:

http://www.radioiowa.com/2016/07/14/connecticut-governor-in-iowa-for-nga-touts-his-states-gun-laws/

Malloy may seem like an odd choice as a presidential candidate, considering that, last time I checked, his home state job approval #s are in the basement, with him being one of the least popular governors in the country.  (Has that changed?)

Then again, plenty of other politicians have run for president while not being popular in their home states.  Heck, Rick Santorum suffered a landslide defeat in his home state, and then went on to run for president and won multiple primaries in 2012.

—

On the Republican side, Scott Walker took over as the new chairman of the RGA a few weeks ago:

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2016/11/14/walker-gop-governors-group/

I think Walker does have ongoing presidential ambitions, but doubt he would challenge Trump for the nomination in 2020.  Maybe he’ll run again in 2024 though.

[Mr. Morden]

Something else I learned from those stories quoted above….looks like Chris Murphy also traveled to New Hampshire in the past year to campaign for Clinton…first in December 2015 for the primary:

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-iowa-hillary-clinton-1218-20151217-story.html

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And then in early November of this year for the general election campaign:

http://www.courant.com/politics/capitol-watch/hc-murphy-clinton-campaign-new-hampshire-story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Someone else who did some campaign events for Clinton in early primary states this past year: Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.  Villaraigosa briefly flirted with running for president himself in 2016 (back when Clinton was nominally undecided on running, so the prospect of a more wide open contests existed), and now chairs the “Latino Victory Fund”, “a PAC that supports candidates who “reflect Latino values,” according to the group’s website.”

He did events for Clinton in the primaries in various states, including early states Iowa and Nevada:

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160314/former-la-mayor-antonio-villaraigosa-stumps-for-clinton-slams-trump

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What about a return to elected office?

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[Mr. Morden]

Someone else who did some campaign events for Clinton in early primary states this past year: Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.  Villaraigosa briefly flirted with running for president himself in 2016 (back when Clinton was nominally undecided on running, so the prospect of a more wide open contests existed), and now chairs the “Latino Victory Fund”, “a PAC that supports candidates who “reflect Latino values,” according to the group’s website.”

He did events for Clinton in the primaries in various states, including early states Iowa and Nevada:

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160314/former-la-mayor-antonio-villaraigosa-stumps-for-clinton-slams-trump

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What about a return to elected office?

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If it helps, he's running for Governor of California in 2018:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-governor-villaraigosa-20161110-story.html

Oh yeah.  I read about that last month, but then promptly forgot about it.

Oh well.  If he's not elected governor, then he has a Nixon-esque path to the White House in front of him. 

[Mr. Morden]

Biden "clarifies" his 2020 remarks on the Colbert show:

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/12/06/joe-biden-2020-president-stephen-colbert

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[Mr. Morden]

At some point, I may go through all the leadership PACs for each of the potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.  E.g., Booker, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren all have leadership PACs…

Booker: “CoryPAC”, contributed $171,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00497131&cycle=2016

Gillibrand: “Off the Sidelines”, contributed $565,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00525600&cycle=2016

Klobuchar: “Follow the North Star Fund”, contributed $167,500 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00431874&cycle=2016

Warren: “PAC for a Level Playing Field”, contributed $190,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00540195&cycle=2016

Gillibrand’s PAC is different in that 1) it only donates to women candidates, and 2) most of its money goes to House candidates.  The Booker, Klobuchar, and Warren PACs mostly donated to Senate candidates, with just a few token House candidates included as well.  The Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar PACs all donated to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign as well, while Warren’s PAC didn’t.

Senate candidates who got donations from all four of these PACs:

Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Kamala Harris (CA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Kate McGinty (PA)
Patty Murray (WA)

In early state (IA/NH) action, Warren’s PAC was the only one to donate to Patty Judge (IA).  And Gillibrand’s PAC gave to House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s Martin O’Malley’s “O’ Say Can You See PAC” for comparison:

https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00525220

Since it was mostly concerned with getting O’Malley elected president, it didn’t actually give that much money to other Democratic candidates, contributing just $27,700 to other Dems this cycle.  Out of the 12 candidates to receive $ from this PAC, 5 were running in Iowa. 

[Mr. Morden]

Another possible indicator….all of these guys wrote books (in most cases, memoirs) that came out between 2014 and 2016:

Booker
Cuomo
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar
Warren

Just saying…most US Senators and Governors didn’t come out with books in the last few years, but these folks did.  It’s the sort of thing that could certainly be read as a sign of national ambitions.  In at least some cases, they might have been thinking about running in 2016 should Clinton choose not to run.  But if they thought about running in ’16, then ’20 is presumably a possibility as well.

[Mr. Morden]

One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

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Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

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Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.

Do you think Amy Klobuchar will run in 2020? I think it's very possible.

As shown in this thread already, she's dropped a lot of hints in the last few years that she's interested.  Sounds like some are speculating that she might run for governor in 2018 though.  If she does that, it means she's probably not going to run for prez in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is asked about Dean calling her his top choice for 2020.  She says she’s running for reelection in 2018, and “[has] no plans for 2020” (which isn’t exactly a denial):

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/gillibrand-mentioned-among-next-round-of-white-house-hopefuls/article_ad662393-9f96-57bc-9df3-e2bc01f92c22.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Apparently on Wednesday, Biden updated his 2020-ometer reading to "I have no intention of running" (which is not really a Shermanesque denial):

http://www.rollcall.com/news/biden-no-intention-running-2020

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[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, someone (either Warren herself or perhaps someone looking to promote her) has already scooped up the domain name http://elizabethwarren2020.com .  At present it just takes you to her Senate campaign website.  To be clear, her Senate seat is up in 2018, not 2020.  But someone must have realized that 2020 presidential buzz would eventually lead people to check out elizabethwarren2020.com .

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, someone (either Warren herself or perhaps someone looking to promote her) has already scooped up the domain name http://elizabethwarren2020.com .  At present it just takes you to her Senate campaign website.  To be clear, her Senate seat is up in 2018, not 2020.  But someone must have realized that 2020 presidential buzz would eventually lead people to check out elizabethwarren2020.com .

Interesting. But isn't it amateurish to have the election year in the URL?

I don't think it's unusual for candidates to acquire the domain rights for all the likely permutations, including the election year.  They'll often then have those redirect to the main site.  In this case though, it looks like it's not a redirect, but a mirror of her Senate campaign site?  Still not clear to me who actually owns elizabethwarren2020.com though.  Not sure if it's her or someone else.

[Mr. Morden]

Rahm Emanuel is asked about running for president in 2020 and doesn’t offer a denial.  

http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/12/09/rahm-emanuel-flips-bird-when-asked-about-2020

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In other news, it looks like Booker was asked about 2020 last month…shortly after the election, and I missed it.  Here’s the quote:

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/which_road_will_booker_travel_in_2020.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton and Kaine are holding a party to thank their big $ donors....which may or may not be related to one or both of them thinking about 2020:

http://pagesix.com/2016/12/05/hillary-clinton-throwing-party-to-thank-millionaire-donors/

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[Mr. Morden]

2020 Sunday morning talk show watch:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

Biden is on State of the Union and Sanders is on Face the Nation tomorrow.  Rumored 2020 Republican fallback option Tim Scott is also on Face the Nation.

Not sure if you’d rate him as a possible primary challenger to Trump, but Rand Paul will be on This Week.

Trump himself will be on Fox News Sunday.