TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[MT Treasurer]

Just saw this poll.

Bredesen favorability: 34/29 (+5)
Blackburn favorability: 37/31 (+6)

No primary or GE numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

New Mason-Dixon poll

Trump approval: 51/42 (+9)
Haslam approval: 57/30 (+27)
Alexander approval: 44/42 (+2)
Corker approval: 40/48 (-8)

@RINO Tom:

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[MT Treasurer]

It's obviously not surprising given the fact that more Democrats than Republicans approve of Corker, but it's still hilarious (and unprecedented for a Republican) that his numbers are worst in East Tennessee (33/54).

[MT Treasurer]

Get ready for some SHOCK POLLS showing Bredesen ahead 40-39 or so and the ensuring 10 pages long threads on the polling board.

[MT Treasurer]

Cook changed the rating for this rate to Toss-Up, from Likely Republican. I think that's a bit too generous..

Cook's ratings are almost always terrible. This year is no exception.

[MT Treasurer]

Bredesen likely entered the race for the same reason as Bayh: Private polling show him ahead in the GE. Maybe he thinks those leads are sustainbale without a Democrat in the White House and against an "extreme conservative" () like Blackburn, who knows.

[MT Treasurer]

Vanderbilt will release a poll on Dec. 14. Expecting something like Bredesen +8 and Dean +4 or so.

Are you suggesting that because Vanderbilt's poll said something like Trump +10 when it was really Trump +26?  I'd be surprised if Dean were in the lead, but not really if Bredesen is right now, but I would expect that to fade.

Vanderbilt being a terrible pollster, high Democratic enthusiasm, polling in TN almost always underestimates R strength, Bredesen's name recognition, a lot of Republican-leaning "Independents" being "undecided" right now, Bredesen winning true Independents (not many of them left, though) by a lot, there's a reason why he jumped into the race, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

[MT Treasurer]

Guess: Bredesen +2.

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

What is your problem with them? Walker being down by 13 isn't implausible whatsoever.

Sure.

[MT Treasurer]

Regardless of that poll's plausibility (and I also lean toward that margin being implausibly large), it doesn't invalidate Marist's other polls or indicate a bias on their part.  Marist actually has a slight R bias (+0.5) according to 538.  They're a very good pollster, but even very good pollsters will get an occasional sample that yields an outlier result.  

(I'm sure MT Treasurer knows all this, and I suspect he's just trying to be annoying.)

Feel free to "suspect" whatever you want, but Marist has found very good numbers for Democrats in most races this year, even when factoring in how bad the environment is for the GOP. I’m not dismissing these polls or saying they’re inaccurate (we’ll know for sure in two months, after all), but there’s no reason to believe their TN numbers are going to be any better for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

Politician says things he hopes will help him win. News at 11.

[MT Treasurer]

Mike Beebe for AR-SEN 2020?

[MT Treasurer]

Alternatively, we can ignore articles that are plainly just DSCC/NRSC spin plsnted for NYT to run

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1055154854266580993

Perhaps reports of Bredesen's demise were premature.

Yeah, it clearly means that he's ahead by about 2-3% again ...

It really doesn’t. It tells you that it’s most likely a close/-ish race that’s far from over, but I thought that was rather obvious. Apparently not.

[MT Treasurer]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

[MT Treasurer]

Polling has been very unreliable and contradictory this year, no one should be "shocked" if Bredesen wins this race (or if Espy wins in MS, for that matter), especially if the Democratic tidal wave everyone is predicting is real.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

We’re talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just can’t bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess we’ll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.

[MT Treasurer]

Evan Bayh also ran against a much stronger opponent in a Republican wave year, and Bredesen doesn’t have Bayh's lobbyist/residency issues that could be used against him in attack ads. Not the best comparison, to say least.

[MT Treasurer]

Evan Bayh also ran against a much stronger opponent in a Republican wave year, and Bredesen doesn’t have Bayh's lobbyist/residency issues that could be used against him in attack ads. Not the best comparison, to say least.

In 2004?  lol, Marvin Scott was a total joke candidate who makes Alan Keyes look like an unbeatable titan.

2016, obviously.