German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

It's the economy that is saving Merkel's ass right now and keeps her glued to her seat.

If the economy were somehow entering recession, she wouldn't hang on for another week or so ...

Because the economy is doing well and Germans have good wages on their bank accounts, they probably overlook her naive policy, scandals, incompetence and blood on her hands when it comes to (illegal) immigrants.

But German voters increasingly do so with grinding teeth. Reminds me of Faymann back in 2014/2015, when 70-80% of Austrian voters also disapproved of him and the government.

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll out today, which has the AfD at a record high:



It should also be noted that virtually all pollsters underestimated the AfD ahead of the federal election by about 2-3%.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

Thanks, I didn't know that ...

Now that I have read about the 15 amendments, I'd approve all of them via straight-ticket choice (which is an option for voters).

Voters can either approve the changes to the constitution by straight-ticket confirmation or each amendment individually.

[Tender Branson]

It's a bid sad that the Hesse state election, which will be hold two weeks after the election in Bavaria, got a bit lost after all the fuss made over Söder and Seehofer.
Firstly, because the Hesse state election in 2013, which was hold in parallel with the federal election, was the only election where the AfD failed the 5% threshold.
Secondly and more important, fifteen (in figures: 15) measure ballots about amendments to the Hessian constitution will be hold.
The two most interesting important amendments will certainly be the avowal to the European Union and the abolition of the death penalty.

Thanks, I didn't know that ...

Now that I have read about the 15 amendments, I'd approve all of them via straight-ticket choice (which is an option for voters).

Voters can either approve the changes to the constitution by straight-ticket confirmation or each amendment individually.

Even the avowal to the EU?

Yes.

Currently, the Hesse constitution reads:

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The proposed amendment says:

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There's nothing wrong with such principles in the Hessian constitution. Now that Germany is a member of the EU, Hesse is not only a state of Germany any longer - but also an integral part of the EU.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, these are the 15 proposed amendments to the Hesse state constitution that people will vote on in October:



* equality between men/women into the constitution
* a right to data privacy (in IT) into the constitution
* strong children's rights into the constitution (against abuse)
* death penalty out of the constitution
* insert a definition of several state goals into the constitution
* among these state goals: a focus on sustainability
* a focus on strengthening infrastructure
* a focus on strengthening culture
* a focus on strengthening voluntary civil service (red cross, firebrigades etc.)
* a focus on strengthening sports
* a commitment to Europe into the constitution
* lowering the passive voting age to 18 (= min. age for candidates in the state parliament)
* detailed digital publication of all laws on the state government website
* a commitment and strengthening of direct democracy with lower signature thresholds
* full independence of the court of audit

[Tender Branson]

There's nothing wrong with such principles in the Hessian constitution. Now that Germany is a member of the EU, Hesse is not only a state of Germany any longer - but also an integral part of the EU.

But that would also mean a step forward to the abolishment of the Germany sovereignty.
I'm dying to get to know the breakdown of the party vote regarding all those amendments. Many people will realize for the first that many citizens share many items of the AfD manifesto.

State constitutions are pretty meaningless, because federal law trumps a lot in this regard.

So of what effect would it be that Hesse rejects EU commitment when Germany as a whole has already joined the EU ?

I could see this question being some sort of protest vote, but I don't think it will be higher than 30-35%. Maybe even just 20-25% in the end.

The death penalty repeal* will also get just limited opposition: polls show that only 10-20% of Germans/Austrians these days support the death penalty.

* of course, the death penalty is already repealed in the federal German constitution, which trumps Hesse's, so this is only a formal vote anyway.

BTW: how is it possible that Hesse voters are allowed to vote on the subject of the death penalty in the first place ? I thought some EU guideline forbids member states to hold referendums on the death penalty ? What if - highly theoretically - Hesse votes in favour of keeping the death penalty in their constitution ?

[Tender Branson]

Talk about a surge for The Greens (relative to their '17 election results). I assume the growth in their numbers is primarily at the expense of the SPD? Is there a legitimate chance that The Greens eclipse the SPD during the next federal election, thereby making the three largest parties the CSU, Afd, and Grüne?

That's a common mistake: The Greens mostly gain from the CDU/CSU's more liberal wings, not from the SPD. The AfD gains from the SPD.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz was recently invited to a CDU-meeting in Thüringen, by the state-CDU leader there - Mike Ohrring.



The CDU is the strongest party there right now ahead of state elections and - theoretically - a coalition with the AfD is possible (49% vs. 44%) , to remove the current leftist government.

At the meeting, where more than 5.000 CDU guests were present, Kurz talked about improving the border protection in Southern Europe by strengthening Frontex and to bring rescued migrants immediately back to Africa, instead of bringing them to Europe - which is further away.

Kurz also argued against a CDU-AfD coalition in Thüringen, because the AfD is not comparable with the FPÖ and more unstable.



A crowd of 50 people were protesting outside.

http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Sebastian-Kurz-bei-CDU-Jahrenempfang-in-Erfurt-Mike-Mohring-Thueringen-Koalition-mit-AfD-sei-nicht-ratsam-44627339

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article181286380/Oesterreichs-Kanzler-Kurz-Wir-erleben-jetzt-dass-sich-weniger-Menschen-auf-den-Weg-machen.html

[Tender Branson]

New MDR/Infratest dimap polls for the 2019 Sachsen and Thüringen state elections:

[Tender Branson]

Söder's downfall continues and his Armageddon is coming closer and closer. A new poll from Infratest Dimap has the CSU at an all time low for the upcoming state election in Bavaria on October 14:

CSU: 35%
Greens: 17%
SPD: 11%
AfD: 11%
Free Voters: 11%
FDP: 5%
The Left: 5%

35% for the CSU would mean a drop of over 13% compared to 2013.

Source

That's correct, but for the SPD the numbers are even bleaker: They are cut in half compared with the previous election. The 35% for the CSU and the 11% for the SPD are the lowest scores in any Bavaria polling so far.

[Tender Branson]

Bayern's population has passed 13 million for the first time, while Baden-Württemberg has passed 11 million:

https://www.destatis.de/DE/PresseService/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2018/09/PD18_347_12411.html

Both states grow faster than Germany as a whole, but Berlin and Hamburg had the biggest % increases.

Data + Map:

http://www.citypopulation.de/Deutschland-Cities.html

[Tender Branson]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

Immigration has been at a constant rate as before and crime has been reducing.

Here's the correct explanation:

Overall crime numbers are falling because they are falling by a lot among native Germans, while increasing 2-3 times over the past 10 years among foreigners. Among certain areas such as rapes etc. the increase and share of foreigners is dramatic. And immigration was/is of course the biggest reason for this development.

[Tender Branson]

Also interesting to see how the Left has been treading water for the past 3 years, something which I suppose can be attributed to its losses to the AfD in the east.

It's more that the Left's voters in the East are really old and die away, rather than switching to the AfD.

The AfD's gains come mostly from the SPD and the CDU and previous non-voters.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

Would FDP be willing to join a CSU government or will they coalition with a possible SPD-green coalition.

None of this has a majority.

The most likely scenario right now is that after their bad defeat, the CSU will chase out (= "in die Wüste schicken") Governor Söder and replace him with someone else (Ilse Aigner ?), who will then enter a coalition with the election winners - the Greens.

Why is CSU-FDP-FW not possible ?

It would probably be possible based on the election results, but not when it comes to the main political actors. A coalition with 3 parties is unlikely because it would be rather unstable. I think the CSU will moderate after the election, especially on immigration (which they used to push hard in the last weeks to "destroy" the AfD to their right, with no real effect). This will open the door for the Greens, with whom the CSU has a lot in common other than on immigration.

[Tender Branson]

Politically, Germany right now is where Austria was between 2013 and 2016.

The last twitches of the so-called "Grand" Coalition, before everything blows up and everyone attacks each other in that government ...

[Tender Branson]

The Bavarian state broadcaster BR aired a TV duel. But instead of a duel between Governor Söder and SPD top-candidate Natascha Kohnen they chose Green top-candidate Ludwig Hartmann as Söder's duelist. That was definitely a punch in the gut for the SPD... 🥊🤢

I accidentally watched the final minutes of that debate yesterday evening (I get basically all of the German TV here of course) and there was a funny moment when the debate was about killing wolves when they get into residential areas and the Green Hartmann was speaking about it: he pointed to Söder while speaking about the so-called "Problem Wolf", implying that Söder is also one ...

[Tender Branson]

The CSU hits another record low, just like the SPD and surprisingly even the AfD (which already polled at 14-15%):



State election is in 1 week.

[Tender Branson]

ZDF poll for next Sunday's Bayern state election:

Only 50% of voters say they have made up their minds so far about which party to vote for, an unusually low score (which could still lead to some surprises) !



Direct vote for Governor:



Which coalition do you prefer (CSU+SPD and CSU+FW is not even possible, lol):

[Tender Branson]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

In that case, they should play "Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock" ...

[Tender Branson]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

Why would she be too young ?

She's 1 year older than Sebastian Kurz and he became Chancellor.

(or is there some age limit in Bayern to become Governor ?)

[Tender Branson]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

Why would she be too young ?

She's 1 year older than Sebastian Kurz and he became Chancellor.

(or is there some age limit in Bayern to become Governor ?)

The Bavarian Constitution states in Article 44 that the Minister President must be a Bavarian who is at least 40 years old. So Schulze will be too young in 2023 as well. Of course, Kurz shows that age limits are absolutly ridiculous.

Those age limits to become Governor (or US Senator or POTUS) are a joke in my opinion.

There are a lot of 18 year olds who are better suited and have more skills and street smarts than the average establishment politician and who'd be better suited to lead a state or a country.

18 should be the passive voting and candidate age for offices.

[Tender Branson]

Probably the final poll ahead of the very important Bayern state election on Sunday: