Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

38.3% voted until 14:00, 4.3% more than 2009.

[danny]

It is interesting that all media seems to report that this is a lackluster campaign with low enthusiasm.  But turnout seems to be significantly higher than 2009.

Yeah, the media doesn't seem to know these kinds of things.

[danny]

46.6% voted until 16:00, 4.7% more than 2009.

[danny]

55.5% voted until 18:00, 5.2% more than 2009.

[danny]

BTW: Danny, who did you vote for ?

Jewish Home, but my family voted Lapid.

[danny]

Likud fears it may score only 31 seats in light of party's low voter turnout. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Haaretz late Tuesday afternoon that voter turnout in Likud strongholds around Israel were low, highlighting the growing fear within his party that it may be crashing in the election. As the evening wore on, Netanyahu was continuing his efforts to awaken Likud voters across the country.
Could be a ploy to get Likud voters to come out.

It is a ploy, but it may be true anyway. Bibi spent a lot of the elections trying to convince people that he hasn't won yet.

[danny]

63.7% voted until 20:00, 4% more than 2009:

[danny]

Yes, an hour and 10 minutes from now.

[danny]

I was just thinking that since Kadima and Whole Nation have a voter surplus agreement, and both are so close to the threshold, it's actually almost certain that at least one of them will make it (if I'm understanding the election system right).

At the moment, Kadima has the more momentum between the two, so it's very likely Shaul Mofaz and probably Yisrael Hasson will make it back into the Knesset.

It doesn't work that way, a voter surplus agreement only counts if both parties pass the threshold.

[danny]

Journalists are hinting at a surprisingly good result for Lapid.

[danny]

Live election results in Hebrew, I'll update an English link if I find one.

[danny]

It is 9:46PM in Tel Aviv now.  Will they finish the count tonight or will this drag out to tomorrow?

Yes, they will finish counting almost all the votes (except for soldiers votes) tonight, although it's an hour later than you think.

[danny]

Sorry to jump on this old post, but I just learned from my friends in my company's Tel Aviv office that today is actually a holiday for the elections.  So there is no issue of people voting after work.  Right ?

55.5% voted until 18:00, 5.2% more than 2009.

Looking at the turnout chart on the previous page, it really depends how many people vote after work.

Turnout could be anywhere between 69% and 79%.

Yes, I'm a student right now, and college was canceled today as well.

[danny]

Presuming that these exit polls are accurate (which is presuming a lot) most of the international coverage of the election is going to look pretty fycking hilarious.

The international media will be just fine. Never let reality affect the narrative.

True, true. Though I meant the coverage before the election.

To be fair to the media, if the exit polls are correct, the pre-election polling was poor, and the media's narrative was mostly based on the polls.

The polls were not necessarily wrong, merely out of date. The last polls was last week and things have changed since then.

[danny]

This link has results which are tiny compared to the number of votes cast.  Is this slow on purpose?

Live election results in Hebrew, I'll update an English link if I find one.

Give it time, they should finish overnight.

[danny]

Live results in English.

[danny]

On this page: http://www.votes-19.gov.il/nationalresults

What does the percentage in the center of the top bar mean? It seems to fluctuate up and down with every report.

I think it's the turnout at the polling places that were counted.

[danny]

What's your reaction to the results Danny?

If the coalition includes Likud, Lapid and JH, and without the Haredi parties, I will be happy.

[danny]

A 62 seat coalition is not a realistic possibility. Too many worries about defections (from crazy right-wings in JH and left-wings in Yesh).

Even if it was a stable, guaranteed 62 though, Netanyahu wouldn't go for it. He has a boner for broad coalitions.

I didn't say that those would be the only parties.

[danny]

A 62 seat coalition is not a realistic possibility. Too many worries about defections (from crazy right-wings in JH and left-wings in Yesh).

Even if it was a stable, guaranteed 62 though, Netanyahu wouldn't go for it. He has a boner for broad coalitions.

I didn't say that those would be the only parties.

Hatnuah or UTJ/Shas in addition?

I said without the Shas/UTJ, so Hatnuah and/or Labour.

[danny]

Kadima seems to be doing better than exit polls suggest.  They might actually cross 2%

They actually got 1.99% in the channel 2 exit poll.

[danny]

Map.

[danny]

Map.

A different map, this one is less user friendly but has better detail if you zoom in.

[danny]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

[danny]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Where is this?

Kiryat Yovel, Jerusalem.