Badlands17
Rookie
Posts: 33
Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: -5.04
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« on: December 22, 2011, 04:08:23 AM » |
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Realistically, a major third-party candidate would emerge to collect the social conservative vote in an Obama v. Paul race. I don't see how the evangelical community would even hold their nose to vote for either of them. I'm not sure how great the swing would be, but it would not be in Paul's direction overall; trends would likely be distributed as follows:
Northeast: Trend R (ME/NH/VT might be one of the few regions of the country that would approach an R swing)
South: Trend D (only places trending to Paul might be parts of TX (in addition to Paul's congressional district) or FL, and a scattering of college towns)
Great Lakes: Trend D (IN and WI would probably be the most likely to trend R)
Plains: Trend R (Dakotas trend hardest R, Missouri might trend D)
West: Trend R (California and New Mexico might trend D, but that's the only two I can really see; ID/WY/MT would likely trend hardest R)
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