2012 NDP leadership convention

[Holmes]

First round

Ashton 3737 5.7%
Singh 3821 5.8%
Dewar 4883 7.4%
Nash 8353 12.8%
Cullen 10671 16.3%
Topp 13915 21.3%
Mulcair 19728 30.2%

[Holmes]

I think Cullen's support is more likely to go to Topp (BC), and Nash's to Mulcair (Toronto/ON). Singh to Mulcair, probably. Don't know about Dewar.

[Holmes]

Looks like Singh is endorsing Mulcair?

[Holmes]

I wonder what Earl is thinking.

Ashton out.

[Holmes]

Supposed to be 11, most likely 11:30 or 12. Might as well get some laundry done.

I hope Nash finishes in second. Maybe I should've made her my first choice.

[Holmes]

Charlie will just have to live with it.

[Holmes]

I'm sure that happened. I totally saw it while watching the convention live.

[Holmes]

Topp said he would endorse Nash if he were to drop, hopes she would endorse him. Cullen is highly predicted to support Mulcair if he's out.

Looks like it's Mulcair/Cullen versus Nash/Topp, but no one knows what Nash wants, really.

[Holmes]

Second ballot

Nash 10519 16.8%
Cullen 12449 19.9%
Topp 15624 25%
Mulcair 23902 38.8%

[Holmes]

I think nearly 39% is a very good result for Mulcair in the second round.

[Holmes]

Well, with the exception of that useless bag of hot air Topp, they seem to have successfully avoided acting like total Grits and tear each others' throats out. But maybe self-sabotage is the right way to pick a leader and win government after all?

[Holmes]

Yeah, I think Mulcair's speech was pretty bland, pretty different from the type of speech he gave when I met him. Oh well, maybe he was tired and over it after so long. I don't think it matters. I think, though, that his manner in giving speeches is very similar to Harper's.

[Holmes]

That's to be expected, but they're just a vocal minority.

[Holmes]

lol Singh.

[Holmes]

When it comes to the NDP winning in the 905, they need not only to field strong candidates, but they need to be seen as the only alternative to the Tories, not just the best alternative.

[Holmes]

So would you say Conservatives would get a majority with only 35% of the vote again? What if Rae and Muclair cooperate and let the liberals run in the suburbs and NDP run in the cities?

Both parties will run full slate of candidates, or face financial restrictions during the campaign.

[Holmes]

While we're somewhat talking about it, 34/30/30 PC/NDP/Lib in Ontario according to Forum. 38% of Ontarians want an elections called now.

[Holmes]

Well, in theory, yes, but it all depends how effectively the NDP can use their position during the current budget. If it doesn't work out, an election might look good for Andrea. I mean, Hudak's a total tool and McGuinty is toxic.

15 seats? Sounds wrong. It's probably based on their crappy regional results. No way that the PC is ahead in Northern Ontario - it's probably closer to 45 NDP/30 PC/20 Lib. Small subsamples, margins of error, etc etc.


Léger federal poll: 33 NDP/32 CPC/19 LBP/8 Green

QC: 47 NDP/ 29 BQ/ 10 CPC/ 10 LBP
ON: 39 CPC/ 26 NDP/ 25 LBC

Ugh, even the provincial NDP is beating the federal party now.