British General Election Constituency Predictions

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Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

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Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

Nigel Farage trying to beat the speaker.

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I'm gonna post my map region by region, and i'll post every so often.

Part 1: The North-West



Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

National seat totals after part one:
Labour - 332 (-17)
Conservative - 225 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 64 (+2)

Labour majority of 6

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes may follow later.

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Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

It's a decent majority already, and Labour and the Tories lost alot of votes to an Independant in 2005.

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Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

It's a decent majority already, and Labour and the Tories lost alot of votes to an Independant in 2005.

LibDems hold council and have made a lot of progress recently (since 2005).

The Lib Dems always do better in locals and local success doesn't exactly translate into general election success.

For example, in the last local election on the Wirral, the Lib Dems came first in Wirral South... like they'll do better than a distant third next month.

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Does anyone think Labour can pick up Blaenau Gwent?

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Part 2: Wales (Part 1: The North-West)



Labour - 23 (-7)
Conservative - 8 (+5)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part two:
Labour - 325 (-24)
Conservative - 230 (+20)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 1

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

London next.

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Part 3: London (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales)



Labour - 33 (-11)
Conservative - 32 (+12)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

National seat totals after part three:
Labour - 314 (-35)
Conservative - 242 (+32)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 12

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

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Part 2: Wales (Part 1: The North-West)



Labour - 23 (-7)
Conservative - 8 (+5)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part two:
Labour - 325 (-24)
Conservative - 230 (+20)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 1

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

London next.

I would more or less agree with the exceptions of Ceredigion (Lib Dem gains do have a habit of becoming strongholds), Ynys Môn (although that will depend on nominations) and Newport East (remember the Assembly)

Ceredigion is a complete toss-up, imo. I give Plaid the edge because they carried it in the European election, although I know that's not the best indicator. Ynys Mon, I'd say this should be a pretty easy pick up for Plaid; i'd be extremely shocked if Labour held on. The majority isn't that much to overturn considering Labour's unpopularity. I don't really know about Newport East, it seems like Labour should be able to hold on, but it'll be close.

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Part 4: Scotland (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London)



Labour - 39 (-2)
Liberal Democrats - 9 (-2)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Conservative - 3 (+2)

National seat totals after part four:
Labour - 312 (-37)
Conservative - 244 (+34)
Liberal Democrats - 61 (-1)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 14

There's gonna be some very strange results in Scotland since the Lib Dems have fallen so much and the SNP has gained so much. It's hard to know where them votes will fall or where they'll come from.

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

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Part 5: The South-West (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland)



Conservative - 37 (+12)
Liberal Democrats - 12 (-6)
Labour - 6 (-6)

National seat totals after part five:
Labour - 306 (-43)
Conservative - 256 (+46)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 20

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

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The London map is just too damn small. I can't be bothered to figure out exactly what you're predicting.

He's predicting the Tories to gain Poplar & Limehouse but not Hammersmith - which is certainly an interesting prediction.

Btw, I've settled on an order (of sorts) for mine. Stuff up soon.

I'm assuming that Galloway is a spoiler for Labour, as he was in Bethnal Green in '05.

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Part 6: The North-East (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West)



Labour - 26 (-1)
Conservative - 2 (+1)
Liberal Democrats - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part six:
Labour - 305 (-44)
Conservative - 257 (+47)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 20

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

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Part 7: The South-East (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East)



Conservative - 90 (+15) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (±0)
Labour - 4 (-16)
The Greens - 1 (+1)

National seat totals after part seven:
Labour - 289 (-60)
Conservative - 272 (+62) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 37

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

The only seat which I think is a total wildcard here is Eastleigh. If it was any other Lib Dem, this'd be an easy Tory gain, but Chris Huhne has high name recognition and he's on the LibDem's front bench so I imagine he has a pretty big personal vote. But, his '05 majority was so small that I can't see the Torys not being able to pick it up with a 4-digit majority.

Oh, and Nigel Farage isn't even gonna come close in Buckingham. If this was an anti-Tory year, ala 1997, then maybe, just maybe, he'd be able to scrape a win by a few hundred votes, but alas, this isn't 1997 and the Tories are gonna make massive gains especially in their traditional strongholds.

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Oddly defined region map there.

I thought that, i'm using the regions as defined at UK Polling Report.

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Part 8: East Anglia (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East)



Conservative - 28 (+6)
Labour - 3 (-7)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (+1)

National seat totals after part eight:
Labour - 282 (-67)
Conservative - 278 (+68) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Liberal Democrats - 56 (-6)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 44

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

The Norwich seats are anyone's guess. In Norwich South, Charles Clarke's personal vote could help him hold on, and a recent constituency poll has him bucking the trend and doing better than 2005. Although, constituency polls are notoriously bad. It'll very close in Norwich North, but surely disenfranchised Labour voters got it out of there system in the by-election last summer...

I say they'll fall or be held as a pair.

Anyone got any thoughts on Ester Ranzen in Luton South? I don't know what to make of her candidacy and how it will affect things.

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Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia)



Labour - 31 (-10)
Conservative - 20 (+11)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)

National seat totals after part nine:
Conservative - 289 (+79) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 272 (-77)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 37

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

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Are any regions left other than the Midlands at this point?  The suspense as the Tories crawl towards a majority map by regional map, as to whether they make it, is killing me!  Thanks.

Oh, and is there any source that allows one to identify the constituencies which appear on the maps?  My knowledge of Great Britain geography is reasonable, but hardly sufficient, for this exercise.

Yeah, i'm splitting the Midlands into East and West. I might have them both done within a few hours.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/interactive/2010/apr/05/general-election-map-swingometer
http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/Predictions

Not my predictions, but they'll do for a constituency map.

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I have a soft spot for the Guardian one

Isn't it yours? It's exactly the same as the template in the Atlas Gallery.

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Part 10: The West Midlands (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia - Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber)



Conservative - 34 (+16)
Labour - 24 (-14)
Liberal Democrats - 1 (-1)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)

National seat totals after part ten:
Conservative - 305 (+95) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 258 (-91)
Liberal Democrats - 54 (-8)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 21

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

Can the Tories gain 21 seats from East Midlands and, if not, can their coalition with the UUP in Northern Ireland carry them over? Find out later when I post part 11, The East Midlands.

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Part 11: The East Midlands (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia - Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber - Part 10: The West Midlands)



Conservative - 30 (+11)
Labour - 14 (-12)
Liberal Democrats - 2 (+1)

National seat totals after part eleven:
Conservative - 316 (+106) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 246 (-103)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 10

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

I'll have an attempt at Northern Ireland, but expect some crackpot predictions since I have very little knowledge of Northern Irish politics.

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Part 12: Northern Ireland (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland - Part 5: The South-West - Part 6: The North-East - Part 7: The South-East - Part 8: East Anglia - Part 9: Yorkshire and the Humber - Part 10: The West Midlands - The East Midlands)



Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (±0)
Sinn Féin - 5 (±0)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3 (±0)
Sylvia Hermon - 1 (+1)
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force - 0 (-1)

National seat totals after part eleven:
Conservative - 316 (+106) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 246 (-103)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (±0)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Sinn Féin - 5 (±0)
Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3 (±0)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
Sylvia Hermon - 1 (+1)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force - 0 (-1)


Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 10

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

And a link to the whole prediction map:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1582/2010prediction.png

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I don't understand the Northern Ireland numbers. It seems most parties have been zeroed out.

The first number, next to the party name, is the number of seats the party has, the second number is the brackets is the net gain. None of the main 3 parties have candidates in Northern Ireland, except for the UUP's alliance with the Conservatives.

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So if the Democratic Unionist Party aligns with the Tories, the Tories are short of a majority by one, is that correct?

A Tory-DUP coalition would be 2 short. I included the Speaker as part of the Tory total, but he doesn't count when determining the majority since he's officially an Independant (the Speaker has to resign party affiliation upon election to the role) and the Speaker isn't allowed to enter any coalition. The Speaker also has to vote to keep the status quo if there's no majority or a tie.

Shinners hold F-ST?

My knowledge of Northern Irish politics isn't great...

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Potential (quasi-realistic?) coalitions:

Conservative - Liberal Democrats (370 seats)
Conservative - SNP - Plaid Cymru (328 seats)
Conservative - Labour (561 seats) Now that would be interesting.

It's near impossible for Labour to be in a coalition that doesn't include the Conservatives.