British General Election Constituency Predictions

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm gonna post my map region by region, and i'll post every so often.

Part 1: The North-West



Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

National seat totals after part one:
Labour - 332 (-17)
Conservative - 225 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 64 (+2)

Labour majority of 6

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes may follow later.

[Harry Hayfield]

Part 1: The North-West

44 - Labour
25 - Conservative
7 - Liberal Democrats

GAINS
Con GAINS: Carlisle, Morecambe, Lancaster, Blackpool North, South Ribble, Lancashire West, Rossendale, City of Chester, Ellesmere Port, Wirral South, Sefton Central, Bury North, Bolton North East, Bolton West
Liberal Democrat GAINS: Rochdale, Liverpool Wavertree

[Hash]

Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

It's a decent majority already, and Labour and the Tories lost alot of votes to an Independant in 2005.

[Hash]

Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

It's a decent majority already, and Labour and the Tories lost alot of votes to an Independant in 2005.

LibDems hold council and have made a lot of progress recently (since 2005).

[minionofmidas]

Labour holding on to Somerset NE? Music to my ears.
Carlisle and Wavertree though... ho hm.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

It's a decent majority already, and Labour and the Tories lost alot of votes to an Independant in 2005.

LibDems hold council and have made a lot of progress recently (since 2005).

The Lib Dems always do better in locals and local success doesn't exactly translate into general election success.

For example, in the last local election on the Wirral, the Lib Dems came first in Wirral South... like they'll do better than a distant third next month.

[You kip if you want to...]

Does anyone think Labour can pick up Blaenau Gwent?

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone think Labour can pick up Blaenau Gwent?

Impossible to tell from this far apart, but doesn't sound like it.

Will People's Voice have a candidate in Islwyn (or is it Torfaen - the one where they have a couple of councillors)?

[Hash]

Labour - 44 (-17)
Conservative - 25 (+15)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (+2)

Labour holds on in Burnley?

It's a decent majority already, and Labour and the Tories lost alot of votes to an Independant in 2005.

LibDems hold council and have made a lot of progress recently (since 2005).

The Lib Dems always do better in locals and local success doesn't exactly translate into general election success.

For example, in the last local election on the Wirral, the Lib Dems came first in Wirral South... like they'll do better than a distant third next month.

LibDem success at the local level in Burnley is a bit different though, it isn't a local pattern or a fluke. For example, the LibDem vote was quite high in Burnley in the Euros compared to the other surrounding areas.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 2: Wales (Part 1: The North-West)



Labour - 23 (-7)
Conservative - 8 (+5)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part two:
Labour - 325 (-24)
Conservative - 230 (+20)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 1

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

London next.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 3: London (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales)



Labour - 33 (-11)
Conservative - 32 (+12)
Liberal Democrats - 7 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

National seat totals after part three:
Labour - 314 (-35)
Conservative - 242 (+32)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 12

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

[Harry Hayfield]

Part 2: Wales (Part 1: The North-West)



Labour - 23 (-7)
Conservative - 8 (+5)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part two:
Labour - 325 (-24)
Conservative - 230 (+20)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 1

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

London next.

I would more or less agree with the exceptions of Ceredigion (Lib Dem gains do have a habit of becoming strongholds), Ynys Môn (although that will depend on nominations) and Newport East (remember the Assembly)

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 2: Wales (Part 1: The North-West)



Labour - 23 (-7)
Conservative - 8 (+5)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
Liberal Democrats - 3 (-1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

National seat totals after part two:
Labour - 325 (-24)
Conservative - 230 (+20)
Liberal Democrats - 63 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 1

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

London next.

I would more or less agree with the exceptions of Ceredigion (Lib Dem gains do have a habit of becoming strongholds), Ynys Môn (although that will depend on nominations) and Newport East (remember the Assembly)

Ceredigion is a complete toss-up, imo. I give Plaid the edge because they carried it in the European election, although I know that's not the best indicator. Ynys Mon, I'd say this should be a pretty easy pick up for Plaid; i'd be extremely shocked if Labour held on. The majority isn't that much to overturn considering Labour's unpopularity. I don't really know about Newport East, it seems like Labour should be able to hold on, but it'll be close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone think Labour can pick up Blaenau Gwent?

The only way of knowing for sure would be to move to Ebbw Vale (merely visiting would not be nearly enough). Davies has come under heavy criticism from the local press for one or two things and People's Voice did badly in the council elections, but you have to be careful about reading too much into that type of thing. Davies might win pretty comfortably, but he might also be buried under a landslide. But no matter what happens the result will be interesting and the area will be represented by someone who claims to be a Socialist.

Will People's Voice have a candidate in Islwyn (or is it Torfaen - the one where they have a couple of councillors)?

They have a candidate in Torfaen (where their councillors have come under criticism for something I've not looked up - local politics is pretty murky there and... yeah...), but I don't know about Islwyn (though there will be at least one independent candidate in the latter).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour holding on to Somerset NE? Music to my ears.

Boundary changes mean that it would technically be a gain. I remember the Rees-Mogg creature from when he stood in The Wrekin in 2001 and if anyone can blow a prospect as easy as NE Zummerzet...

[minionofmidas]

Ceredigion is a complete toss-up, imo. I give Plaid the edge because they carried it in the European election, although I know that's not the best indicator. Ynys Mon, I'd say this should be a pretty easy pick up for Plaid; i'd be extremely shocked if Labour held on. The majority isn't that much to overturn considering Labour's unpopularity. I don't really know about Newport East, it seems like Labour should be able to hold on, but it'll be close.

The Isle of Mona is an odd place that doesn't follow national swings. And last booted an incumbent in 1951. And last didn't switch parties when an incumbent stood down in 1929.
Seriously. Look it up.

It's impossible to tell for sure, of course - as are a couple of other Welsh seats - but it's the only one I'd predict differently from the map posted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 4: Scotland (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London)



Labour - 39 (-2)
Liberal Democrats - 9 (-2)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Conservative - 3 (+2)

National seat totals after part four:
Labour - 312 (-37)
Conservative - 244 (+34)
Liberal Democrats - 61 (-1)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 14

There's gonna be some very strange results in Scotland since the Lib Dems have fallen so much and the SNP has gained so much. It's hard to know where them votes will fall or where they'll come from.

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

[You kip if you want to...]

Part 5: The South-West (Part 1: The North-West - Part 2: Wales - Part 3: London - Part 4: Scotland)



Conservative - 37 (+12)
Liberal Democrats - 12 (-6)
Labour - 6 (-6)

National seat totals after part five:
Labour - 306 (-43)
Conservative - 256 (+46)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3)
People's Voice - 1 (±0)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Labour short by 20

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

[minionofmidas]

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

I assume the third is a Tory gain... what's the fourth least likely one?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

I assume the third is a Tory gain... what's the fourth least likely one?

Actually the Tory gain is the least likely one. The third one is Peter Rogers (who is running again) winning.

[minionofmidas]

I am not sure Labour will lose Sutton & Devonport before Kingswood or Gloucester.

With the myriad LD-Con marginals in the Southwest, only a fool would try to predict all of them from across the Channel, and so I won't pretend I can offer any kind of comment. I'm excepting Cornwall from that - I'm interested in the reasoning behind the prediction of the Tories taking one seat (not zero, not several) or why this one. (Although if it's something to do with being quasi new, I can see why this one is the quasi-new seat most likely to go Conservative.)

[minionofmidas]

The London map is just too damn small. I can't be bothered to figure out exactly what you're predicting.

In Scotland, I'm of the school of thought that says the SNP will do almost as well as at Holyrood and you're not; there's no point arguing with such different expectations, really.

Though what about Willie Rennie - you're thinking Labour'll regain Dunfermline?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The London map is just too damn small. I can't be bothered to figure out exactly what you're predicting.

He's predicting the Tories to gain Poplar & Limehouse but not Hammersmith - which is certainly an interesting prediction.

Btw, I've settled on an order (of sorts) for mine. Stuff up soon.