UK Opinion Polls Thread

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A dodgy poll from Harris/Daily Mail:

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2777

The Mail published it with undecideds/won't say/don't knows included giving: 29-28-12

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ICM:

37/37/18

The first poll to show Labour not behind the Tories since....

January 23rd 2008, from Ipsos-Mori. First from ICM since October 4th 2007, when it was 38-38-16.

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ComRes/Daily Mirror/GMTV

Con 39 (nc) Lab 33 (nc) LD 15 (-1)

Changes since August 8th.

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Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

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Yougov 23/08/2010:
Latest net government approval rating 0 (40% approve, 40% disapprove)

Latest YouGov/Sun voting intentions CON 41% (nc), LAB 39% (+1), LDEM 12% (nc).

39% is the highest Labour's had form YouGov since 21st September 2007.

His Sneering Arrogancy, of course, might get a baby "bounce" but Cleggover ain't fairing too well

Of course, Dave's paternity leave should bring some more good Cleggy gaffes.

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Many Lib Dems seem to want Nick to take a more "aggressive" approach in articulating their party's values because right now he seems all too willing to play the role of some 'compliant wife'. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, in all probability, it is a duck

If they wanted to remain a separate entity, they shouldn't have entered the coalition with all but one of their MPs agreeing. If they're so annoyed, get a new leader.

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Many Lib Dems seem to want Nick to take a more "aggressive" approach in articulating their party's values because right now he seems all too willing to play the role of some 'compliant wife'. If it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, in all probability, it is a duck

If they wanted to remain a separate entity, they shouldn't have entered the coalition with all but one of their MPs agreeing. If they're so annoyed, get a new leader.

There must be a lot of people who feel "duped" by the Liberal Democrats voting their way because they believed they were a centre-left alternative to Labour

Or, to quote Bremner, Bird and Fortune people watched the first debate and just thought "...who is that man standing next to Gordon Brown? Y'know, I want him to be prime minister."

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Or, to quote Bremner, Bird and Fortune people watched the first debate and just thought "...who is that man standing next to Gordon Brown? Y'know, I want him to be prime minister."

Aye, "Cleggmania" . Fed the ol' ego a bit didn't it?

Not half. To think, he was god's gift to politics 4 months ago.

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Tonight's YouGov brings yet another new low for the Orange Tories.

43-38-11. LOL

Not long until the two coalition parties aren't even polling above 50% together.

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Tonight's YouGov brings yet another new low for the Orange Tories.

43-38-11. LOL

Not long until the two coalition parties aren't even polling above 50% together.

According to ElectoralCalculus, if that poll was repeated in a General Election (on a UNS), Simon Hughes, Alan Beith, Nick Harvey, Chris Huhne and Vince Cable would all be ousted.

Well, it's not like they voted No or abstained on the coalition vote (like Kennedy), so they deserve to be ousted.

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Tonight's YouGov:
40 (-1) CON
39 (+1) LAB
12 (nc) LD

It'd be funny if we get a poll with both parties at 40 or above. Let's not forget, such a thing's never happened at an election since 1970. The LD conference in Liverpool (where local LDs are dropping like flies, btw) should be funny.

I wonder when the calls for an LD leadership election will start rolling in.

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YouGov at 42-38-11. If the Liberals aren't at 15ish tomorrow, they ought to be very worried. Although, yes, poll ratings like 11% are like superglue for the coalition. No way would they risk coming out of an election with 10-20 seats. They'd try and ditch Clegg, maybe, or maybe a few will defect to Labour, but they wouldn't terminate the coalition.

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YouGov at 39-39-13, first tie they've had. I don't know if the bigger story is the tie or the fact that the LDs started conference at 13% and, even after the speech of Clegg's political life, they've soared to... 13%.

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And, on the day Ed Miliband becomes the PM-in-waiting, we have:
Con - 39 (-2)
Lab - 38 (+1)
LD - 15 (+2)

Should wait till the Monday night tracker for a more accurate picture of the Mili-bounce.

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GOOD! If Labour are still ahead after the Tory conference, we're in for a good year or so atleast.

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This a pleasant surprise - I was worried the "Red Ed" fearmongering would have taken its toll.

It will, eventually. The media have already created the narrative.

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From last night's YouGov.

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41 39 12 - Today's YouGov. Labour down. Wonder how different this week would have been had those 6 Ed MPs voted for David...

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Fail on the Murdoch media!

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YouGov Poll:

National Goverment - 50% (Tories - 39%, Lib Dems - 11%)
Labour - 41%
Others - 9%

Highest Labour share in a poll since October 2007.

Labour could realistically be even with the combined Con-Lib shares by 2011... Good stuff.

44-35-9 doesn't seem that bizarre once we've had the spending review.

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Angus Reid:

Labour - 38%
Tories - 35%
Lib Dems - 16%

The first time Angus Reid have ever had Labour in the lead.

Although it's worth remembering how bad they were at the election.

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http://blog.itv.com/news/tombradby/2010/10/ashcrofts-parting-gift/

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Here are the percentages from the polls conducted in Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh:

Sheffield Hallam:

Lib Dems - 33%
Labour - 31%
Tories - 28%

Eastleigh:

Tories - 42%
Lib Dems - 31%
Labour - 21%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834/comment-page-1#comment-680315

Constituency polls in this country are, of course, known for their outstanding accuracy.

LOL. This is just too good to be true. I hope it's true.

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ComRes
Con 40 (+1)  Lab 34 (-2)  LD 14 (-1)
YouGov
Con 41 (-1)  Lab 39 (+1)  LD 11 (-1)

Trust on the economy (ComRes):
Cameron/Osbourne - 45%
Miliband/Johnson - 23%
More results here

Government approval (YouGov):
Approve - 38% (-3)
Disapprove - 44% (+3)

After the 2015 election, you will probably be able fit the entire LibDem Parliamentary Party into a Mini Cooper. Oh, or a yellow taxi.

It'd be interesting if Lab-Con both polled over 10 million in 2015.

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Time for LibDems to dump Clegg. He's certainly underperformed in my estimation. Labour on the other hand is looking good.

My guess is that Conference 2011 will make or break him, assuming the AV Referendum fails of course. I think that Simon Hughes (or Tim Farron?) will step up to take over as a left-wing alternative to Clegg. They'd just have to sit and hope that their Labour tactical voters would forgive them.

Either way, the LibDems need a back-up plan should the Government lose the confidence of the House. 14 days to negotiate or they'll be a snap election, and all that. I'm sure they wouldn't want to fight an election, polling below 10%...