If Trump lost, who would run for the Republican nomination in 2020?

[diptheriadan]

If Trump lost, who would run for the Republican nomination in 2020?

[Lord Admirale]

I feel like 2020 would be a guaranteed win for the GOP, so there would probably be a huge amount of candidates. Here are some I could see running.

Definite:
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) (most likely being nominated)
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Former Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)

Potential:
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) (probably the most likely of this group)
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Fmr. Governor Rick Scott (R-FL)
Governor John Kasich (R-OH)
Governor Greg Abbott (R-TX)
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT)
Doctor Ben Carson (R-VA)
Governor Ed Gillespie (R-VA)*
CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA)
Governor Pat Toomey (R-PA)***

Unlikely, but possible:
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Senator Richard Burr (R-NC)
Governor Phil Scott (R-VT)
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Fmr. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI)**
Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY) (you never know, Hillary hasn't ruled out 2020...)

I'm sure I'm missing some candidates

*Denotes Republican politicians as a result of Clinton's 2016 victory.
**Denotes Republican defeat as a result of Clinton's 2016 victory.
***Denotes Republican who ran for another office prior to 2020 after their defeat in 2016.

[MeanBeanMachine]

Ted Cruz

[Kringla Heimsins]

Mike Pence, Paul Ryan and Tom Cotton are definitely ambitious enough to try.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Pence by default.

[Del Tachi]

Sarah Palin would have hijacked the 2020 primaries in a way similar to DJT in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton, Cruz, Kasich, Bevin, and Walker were all already doing early primary state visits in mid to late-2016.  Rubio and Sasse also seemed to be dropping hints, and Joni Ernst met with the New Hampshire delegation at the RNC (and did some other national events).  Oh, and Amash, Paul, and Ryan all declined to rule it out when they were asked last year.

Seems likely that many of those folks at least were doing this with an eye towards 2020 on the assumption that Clinton was going to win last year, setting up another open GOP primary in 2020.

[uti2]

I feel like 2020 would be a guaranteed win for the GOP, so there would probably be a huge amount of candidates. Here are some I could see running.

Definite:
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) (most likely being nominated)
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Former Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)

Rubio would've had the most likely chance of being nominated in the circumstance that Jeb had won the nomination in 2016 and had lost, which is what made Rubio's underhanded betrayal of Jeb so pointless in the first place. Instead, all he did was pave the way for Trump by refusing to attack him until 2 weeks before he dropped out, and then he got outflanked by Cruz with conservatives, all he did was create a situation that worsened conditions for him.

If Jeb had won the primary, it would've made sense to see a Jeb -> Rubio consensus candidate narrative emerge. But Trump or Cruz?, no, that would've only served to undermine the establishment, which would've been rubio's main sponsor. A weakened establishment only hurts rubio, a strong establishment would've helped Rubio to emerge as a consensus candidate post-Jeb. You would've gotten a very different kind of consensus candidate post-Trump/Cruz.

[uti2]

The closest parallel to Trump or Cruz winning the nomination and losing the general would've been Goldwater. Nixon only emerged as a consensus candidate in 1968 as a result of accommodating all factions in the party, including the Goldwater wing, since Goldwater was such a break from the traditional continuity of GOP nominees.

Someone like Cotton might've been able to pull off that role.

[Rjjr77]

I feel like 2020 would be a guaranteed win for the GOP, so there would probably be a huge amount of candidates. Here are some I could see running.

Definite:
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) (most likely being nominated)
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Former Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)

Potential:
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) (probably the most likely of this group)
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Fmr. Governor Rick Scott (R-FL)
Governor John Kasich (R-OH)
Governor Greg Abbott (R-TX)
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT)
Doctor Ben Carson (R-VA)
Governor Ed Gillespie (R-VA)*
CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA)
Governor Pat Toomey (R-PA)***

Unlikely, but possible:
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Senator Richard Burr (R-NC)
Governor Phil Scott (R-VT)
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Fmr. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI)**
Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY) (you never know, Hillary hasn't ruled out 2020...)

I'm sure I'm missing some candidates

*Denotes Republican politicians as a result of Clinton's 2016 victory.
**Denotes Republican defeat as a result of Clinton's 2016 victory.
***Denotes Republican who ran for another office prior to 2020 after their defeat in 2016.

Agreed.

[uti2]

Agreed.

In light of what happened in the 2016 primary, rubio had pissed off all the factions of the party, and weakened the establishment, which would've only served to have hurt him. The Jeb, Cruz, Trump wings.  He would've been better served with Jeb winning the primary.

That's why if you looked at some of the hypothetical 2020 polls taken in the last quarter of 2016 before the election, they didn't show rubio to standout at all, even Cruz was ahead of him.

[Rjjr77]

Agreed.

In light of what happened in the 2016 primary, rubio had pissed off all the factions of the party, and weakened the establishment, which would've only served to have hurt him. The Jeb, Cruz, Trump wings.  He would've been better served with Jeb winning the primary.

That's why if you looked at some of the hypothetical 2020 polls taken in the last quarter of 2016 before the election, they didn't show rubio to standout at all, even Cruz was ahead of him.

Rubio would have been the front runner, Cruz' stock took a hit, he'd still win Iowa and the south, but Rubio would still have had the edge. Kasich made a parody of himself, Jeb wouldn't run, Pence might have received some love but I doubt the donors would have backed him.

[uti2]

Agreed.

In light of what happened in the 2016 primary, rubio had pissed off all the factions of the party, and weakened the establishment, which would've only served to have hurt him. The Jeb, Cruz, Trump wings.  He would've been better served with Jeb winning the primary.

That's why if you looked at some of the hypothetical 2020 polls taken in the last quarter of 2016 before the election, they didn't show rubio to standout at all, even Cruz was ahead of him.

Rubio would have been the front runner, Cruz' stock took a hit, he'd still win Iowa and the south, but Rubio would still have had the edge. Kasich made a parody of himself, Jeb wouldn't run, Pence might have received some love but I doubt the donors would have backed him.

The point about Pence is that Pence in those polls was just a placeholder for an unknown candidate, which shows that rubio wasn't that popular, and NOTA was a popular option.

How did Cruz's stock take a hit but not Rubio's?

Cruz polled better than Rubio in those Q4 pre-nov polls.

Like I said, if Jeb had won the primary, it's easy to see the leap from Jeb -> Rubio, but not with Trump or Cruz.

By the way, the donors ended up spending about as much on Rubio's campaign in the end as they did on Jeb's campaign, and they got burned by him.

[peterthlee]

The race between these two guys

(Forget about Joshua Wong)
I would say the man on the right hand side is slightly favoured, as he could appeal to Trumpists and establishments, although I hate him pretty much.
If he's elected, Sino-US relations will be poisoned to a considerable extent, given how right-inclining he is.

[uti2]

The race between these two guys

Cotton or someone like him would've done better at consolidating Trump and Cruz voters. Rubio likely would've faced problems in the establishment lane, getting his vote share split with someone like Haley, etc. A lot of angry ex-Bush people would go out of their way to keep the establishment lane flooded against rubio including upset/curious donors who were previously burned. This is not even talking about the moderate lane with Kasich, etc. An alternative establishment candidate who is genuinely more moderate would be better able to consolidate the moderate lane, if such a consolidation were to happen, which would additionally give that candidate (ernst, haley, etc.) momentum against rubio, again.

[Rjjr77]

Agreed.

In light of what happened in the 2016 primary, rubio had pissed off all the factions of the party, and weakened the establishment, which would've only served to have hurt him. The Jeb, Cruz, Trump wings.  He would've been better served with Jeb winning the primary.

That's why if you looked at some of the hypothetical 2020 polls taken in the last quarter of 2016 before the election, they didn't show rubio to standout at all, even Cruz was ahead of him.

Rubio would have been the front runner, Cruz' stock took a hit, he'd still win Iowa and the south, but Rubio would still have had the edge. Kasich made a parody of himself, Jeb wouldn't run, Pence might have received some love but I doubt the donors would have backed him.

The point about Pence is that Pence in those polls was just a placeholder for an unknown candidate, which shows that rubio wasn't that popular, and NOTA was a popular option.

How did Cruz's stock take a hit but not Rubio's?

Cruz polled better than Rubio in those Q4 pre-nov polls.

Like I said, if Jeb had won the primary, it's easy to see the leap from Jeb -> Rubio, but not with Trump or Cruz.

By the way, the donors ended up spending about as much on Rubio's campaign in the end as they did on Jeb's campaign, and they got burned by him.

Cruz's RNC debacle. It hurt him bad and capped his support.

Cool you act as if 4 year out polling is gospel, those same polls had Corey Booker with like 2% in 2020 on the dem side.

its easy to see the leap from Rockefeller to Nixon but not with Goldwater or Rhodes.

This is the first time since 64 where the establishment was more fractured than the other wings of the party, the chances of that happening again would be slim.

[Mr. Morden]

That's why if you looked at some of the hypothetical 2020 polls taken in the last quarter of 2016 before the election, they didn't show rubio to standout at all, even Cruz was ahead of him.

"Some of the hypothetical 2020 polls"?  I'm only aware of one 2020 Republican poll ever being taken.  This one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247601.0

[Inmate Trump]

If Trump lost (well he did but for a technicality), then in 2020 we'd likely have a legitimate candidate was, ya know, sane.

[uti2]

Agreed.

In light of what happened in the 2016 primary, rubio had pissed off all the factions of the party, and weakened the establishment, which would've only served to have hurt him. The Jeb, Cruz, Trump wings.  He would've been better served with Jeb winning the primary.

That's why if you looked at some of the hypothetical 2020 polls taken in the last quarter of 2016 before the election, they didn't show rubio to standout at all, even Cruz was ahead of him.

Rubio would have been the front runner, Cruz' stock took a hit, he'd still win Iowa and the south, but Rubio would still have had the edge. Kasich made a parody of himself, Jeb wouldn't run, Pence might have received some love but I doubt the donors would have backed him.

The point about Pence is that Pence in those polls was just a placeholder for an unknown candidate, which shows that rubio wasn't that popular, and NOTA was a popular option.

How did Cruz's stock take a hit but not Rubio's?

Cruz polled better than Rubio in those Q4 pre-nov polls.

Like I said, if Jeb had won the primary, it's easy to see the leap from Jeb -> Rubio, but not with Trump or Cruz.

By the way, the donors ended up spending about as much on Rubio's campaign in the end as they did on Jeb's campaign, and they got burned by him.

Cruz's RNC debacle. It hurt him bad and capped his support.

Cool you act as if 4 year out polling is gospel, those same polls had Corey Booker with like 2% in 2020 on the dem side.

its easy to see the leap from Rockefeller to Nixon but not with Goldwater or Rhodes.

This is the first time since 64 where the establishment was more fractured than the other wings of the party, the chances of that happening again would be slim.

Not really, polling wise, he still remained in a similar position relative to rubio. Slightly higher as usual.

Because as an establishment candidate in '68 Nixon actually reached out to unite the party. You're suggesting a candidate simply ignoring the other wings and getting force-fed down the base with rubio, which is something completely different. As I mentioned, there were also a lot of ex-Jeb people who would've gone out of their way to cap rubio's establishment support too, it would also make donors worried. Nixon didn't run against Goldwater and lose to him. That makes for a very different situation.


Booker has a base, the black vote, rubio doesn't.

[Mr. Smith]

Cruz, Rubio, Amash, Ryan.

[uti2]

Also, will add that every single other 'establishment' nominee in those past few decades have been establishment/moderate hybrid candidates who unified both lanes, since rubio isn't a moderate, he was going to have a hard time uniting those groups anyway. Look at how well Romney did relative to Huntsman in 2012, that's an example of a moderate/establishment hybrid candidate successfully consolidating both lanes.

That's why another establishment candidate running against rubio, would've had a better chance in consolidating the moderate lane, further decreasing rubio's chances as well.

[Kingpoleon]

John Kasich, Rand Paul, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott all seem like strong possibilities.

[OSR stands with Israel]

John Kasich, or Nikki Haley would be the most likely nominees

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Pence and Cruz would be the early frontrunners.  Cotton is nakedly ambitious, and he'd give it a try.

Rubio would not have run.  If Hillary had won, he might not have been re-elected to the Senate.  More importantly, for Rubio to ever be President, he would have to live down his rep as being an absentee Senator and a lightweight.  He'd need to develop some substance to his career; he's perceived as a lightweight and that doesn't help him at all.