Rick Perry May Run After All

[Lief 🗽]

PPT of the Texas Senate, who is this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Ogden

[Bull Moose Base]

Who else thinks Perry quickly becomes the frontrunner if he gets in?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, in the unlikely event that he were elected President and the Lt. Governor were elected to the Senate, who would take over as Governor of Texas?

It's unlikely only in one half, since Dewhurst seems have KBH's seat in his hands already.

[Mr. Morden]

http://dailycaller.com/2011/06/09/sources-rick-perry-is-running/

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[Mr. Morden]

Who else thinks Perry quickly becomes the frontrunner if he gets in?

Perhaps.  Though it would help if he polled better than 4% in his home state:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=136037.0

[Eraserhead]

He must really think that Palin isn't going to get in if he is seriously considering it.

[milhouse24]

He must really think that Palin isn't going to get in if he is seriously considering it.

Umm, no one thinks Palin is running.  She wants money and is making tons of it now.  If she runs, she can't make any money during that time, and if she does poorly, she may actually hurt her future earnings potential. 

[milhouse24]

I'm not sure how I feel about Perry or President Perry. 
I prefer President Romney or President Huntsman. 
Maybe Perry does well in the debates, but I don't want him to be president.

However, it he does run, he would be the southern evangelical candidate, so he has an automatic win in Iowa and SC.  I'm sure the Romney campaign is scared right now.  They both have great hair.

[Badger]

Who else thinks Perry quickly becomes the frontrunner if he gets in?

Or at worst, the media narrative spins it as a Romney vs. Perry race, especially the minute Palin says she's out.

On a side note, realizing we can never rationally assess the motivations and "thought process" coming out of Wasilla Arizona, does Perry entering make it more likely that Palin jumps in (better chance relying on her base in a crowded field) or less likely (Perry takes the oxygen out of the room for a "serious" but tea-party friendly conservative alternative to Romney)?

[Bull Moose Base]

Who else thinks Perry quickly becomes the frontrunner if he gets in?

Or at worst, the media narrative spins it as a Romney vs. Perry race, especially the minute Palin says she's out.

On a side note, realizing we can never rationally assess the motivations and "thought process" coming out of Wasilla Arizona, does Perry entering make it more likely that Palin jumps in (better chance relying on her base in a crowded field) or less likely (Perry takes the oxygen out of the room for a "serious" but tea-party friendly conservative alternative to Romney)?

Definitely less likely for her to run.  I pretty much figure he's only considering a run because he's confident she won't (because she would suck up oxygen he'd need).  I figure Palin is primarily interested in being part of the story of the 2012 race, and if there's a way for her to do that without running, she's just as likely to do that.  Not that it'd be as central.  I'd guessed that she'd endorse Bachmann but that now looks impossible.  She didn't show much sign of that and after Bachmann's campaign manager insulted her, no way.  I do think she'd stump for Perry if he ran.

I think the basically key questions for the primary at this point are:

Does Perry run?  We should know soon. It'd totally scramble race.

If so, can he chase out Pawlenty, Cain, Bachmann and emerge the anti-Romney?  I think he probably would.  He's the best combo of viable resume and well-liked by the most motivated conservative voters.  He has vulnerabilities.  Some say his executive order mandating HPV vaccines for girls is a negative in a GOP primary because hey, who doesn't love HPV?  Still, I'd bet on him being one of final two come March.

Can Huntsman or anyone shock Romney in New Hampshire?  I doubt it frankly. When McCain won in 2008, he'd already won the state before and was well-known and well-liked (sort of like Romney now except for strong second instead of having won) and he swept newspaper endorsements.  Sure, if Huntsman or someone does that, all bets are off but I'd be very surprised if Romney doesn't win it.

A Romney Perry long haul would be fun to watch and could probably go either way.

[milhouse24]

Yeah, there is a 99.9% chance Palin is NOT Running.  There is no way she is voluntarily giving up millions of dollars as a tv/radio/media personality to run for something where there is a high likelihood of embarrassment and other gotcha moments.  Nothing is going to change her mind unless she wins the lottery or strikes oil. 

The Perry vs Romney theme will be a natural rivalry especially within the GOP.  You have the Southern Evangelicals against the Northern Secular Fiscal Conservatives.  Perry wins Iowa, Mitt wins NH and Nevada, Perry probably wins SC after negative stories are places about Romney.  Perhaps it comes down to Florida or drags out to Super Tuesday. 

Unless, there is a spoiler in SC that gives it to Romney.  Perhaps DeMint gets in or some other Southerner who is loyal to Romney.  Maybe Fred Thompson can play the spoiler again to split the Southern vote. 

[Badger]

I think your analysis is correct Joe. If Perry enters and (big if) can at least seem a viable general election conservative (i.e. stay on script and not say too many stupid things to create the air of a Palinesque disaster in the making) through SC, the rest of the non-Romney pack is toast.

My guess is IF Perry can avoid being seen as a Goldwater/Palin/Cain/Bachmann unelectable candidate (at least through April), he'll beat Romney for the nomination as the far more conservative and tea party friendly choice.

As for the prospect of other candidates like DeMint, Giuliani, Pataki, etc. entering the race, I think those trial balloons are being floated more due to the space in the GOP race. With Huck and Trump out, Gingrich unlikely to last the summer, Palin increasingly unlikely to run, wide dissatisfaction with Romney, and no credible conservative alternative running. Upon further consideration, I suspect if Perry runs, with his finances, clout and regional base the likelihood of other major candidates jumping in decreases markedly.

[Paul Kemp]

More indications . . .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304569504576403751413473280.html

[SteveRogers]

So, in the unlikely event that he were elected President and the Lt. Governor were elected to the Senate, who would take over as Governor of Texas?

My understanding of the law in Texas is that the Senate President Pro Tempore (Steve Ogden) would become acting Lt. Governor (which in this case would allow him to take over as acting governor) until the Texas Senate selected a senator to become the new Lt. Governor. That Lt. Governor could then take over as governor.

[NHI]

I hope to God he does not run. This man is not who we need in the White House, now or ever. If he were to run and win the nomination I'd consider voting for Obama.

[Stranger in a strange land]

He must really think that Palin isn't going to get in if he is seriously considering it.

Umm, no one thinks Palin is running.  She wants money and is making tons of it now.  If she runs, she can't make any money during that time, and if she does poorly, she may actually hurt her future earnings potential. 

She filed papers to trademark her name today, which is pretty much a sure indication that she's not going to run.

[milhouse24]

I smell profits from a Caribou Barbie Sarah Palin line of dolls!

[krazen1211]

Kevin McCullough: Rick Perry will be President in 2013


http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/06/24/five-reasons-why-believe-texas-governor-rick-perry-will-be-our-president-in/



Interesting.

[jimrtex]

But it wouldn't be today, and they are the only state that legally has the right to leave the Union.

Isn't that just an urban legend?

The People of all States have the unalienable right to abolish or alter their form of government.

Congress specifically recognized this right in the case of the People of Texas.

In 1845, Congress provided that if the government of the Republic of Texas would transfer the forts and harbors to the government of the United States of America, that Texas could transfer title to the public lands to the State of Texas, provided that the People of Texas in convention create a State Constitution.  But it also provided that if the government of Texas did not act on the proposal, the People of Texas could still hold a statehood convention that President Polk could recognize.  That is, Congress explicitly recognized the popular sovereignty of the People of Texas, and refused a government to government treaty.

The Texas Constitution in its very first section recognized that the People were sovereign.  This Constitution was approved by Congress.

[Paul Kemp]

Kevin McCullough: Rick Perry will be President in 2013


http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/06/24/five-reasons-why-believe-texas-governor-rick-perry-will-be-our-president-in/



Interesting.

Who?

[jimrtex]

If he runs, it would be very disenguous. He told the people of Texas that he would serve out his full third term if he were reelected.

When did he do this?

[krazen1211]

Kevin McCullough: Rick Perry will be President in 2013


http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/06/24/five-reasons-why-believe-texas-governor-rick-perry-will-be-our-president-in/



Interesting.

Who?

The guy who predicted Obama would be the next President in December 2006....before he declared he was running.

[jimrtex]

PPT of the Texas Senate, who is this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Ogden

Mike Jackson was elected at the end of the the regular session.  Traditionally, a different senator is elected for the regular session and the interim, and are chosen in seniority order.  15 of the current senators, including Jackson have been PPT.

Another tradition is the Governor for a Day ceremony.  If the Governor and Lt.Governor are absent from the State, the PPT is the acting governor, and there is an arrangement for the two to simultaneously leave the state, so that the PPT is acting governor.

But the more likely outcome is that the senate would elect one of its members as Lt.Governor (Dewhurst would resign first to take office on January 3; while Perry would take office on the 20.
The Lieutenant Governor would become governor, and the senate would elect another Lt. Governor.

[exopolitician]

Lolno.

[Del Tachi]

In the current GOP field no one truly represents the heart of the Republican constituency: social conservatives.

--Romney and Huntsman are too moderate.
--Bachmann, Paul, and Cain have all been hijacked by the Tea Party and are trying to avoid social issues.
--Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Santorum are all jokes.

Rick Perry seems like the only prospective GOP candidate who could appeal to both establishment and "grassroots" Republicans.  He also has a lot of experience, serving as governor of one of the nation's most populous states for over ten years.  While Bachmann will probably win Iowa (a state most GOP candidates are skipping), Perry could probably come in 2nd or 3rd and set himself up for a nice win in South Carolina and collaborate with his old friend's brother in the Sunshine State to ensure a primary victory there.   

I think the left fears him, and he should Obama the willies.

Rick Perry is the "generic Republican" that the GOP has been in search of since 2009.