2012 NDP leadership convention

[Holmes]

Go Ontario.

And the leadership schedule and locations have been selected. Lemme just say... I will now accept my accolades.

Dec. 4, Ottawa – Building an inclusive economy

January, Halifax – Giving families a break

February, Quebec City – Providing leadership on the world stage

February, Winnipeg – Building bridges between urban and rural Canada

March, Montreal – Building a strong united Canada

March, Vancouver – Creating opportunities for youth and new Canadians

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-membership-soars-but-quebecs-share-remains-a-mere-fraction/article2239704/

So first debate will be economy, second will probably be more about jobs and taxes, and third is foreign policy, fifth seems like a free-for-all, and the rest seem to speak for themselves. I'm interested in the one about rural/urban Canada and the youth one most.

I think Dewar's plan for four more debates would be over saturation, imo.

[Hatman 🍁]

WE NEED 20 LIKE THE REPUBLICANS!!!

Anyways, good choices, though I would have included maybe Hamilton and Edmonton, and maybe one in Saskatchewan and even St. John's.

Oh well, I hope I can get to the debate here in Ottawa. I also hope these will be televised on the newsnetworks, not just on CPAC.

[MaxQue]

My question is obvious.

Will the debate be bilingual or only in English?

[Holmes]

Bilingual. At least, the Ottawa one will be. And probably the one in Quebec City and Montreal.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

More on membership numbers.

I think BC is just about maxed out. IMO they would not be able to take over 33K by the date of the leadership election.
Manitoba too seems tapped out, perhaps 11K max
Saskatchewan is also run dry. Perhaps a total of 10K max
Alberta could see growth if they can convince people, but I'm thinking this would be difficult, as federal membership = provincial membership, and two provincial parties have new leaders that might attract some NDPers. 10K max

This would put 64K in the west.
New Brunswick supposedly has 1,000 members now. I'll take that as a max. NL might be able to sell more memberships as there does seem attraction to the party there, so I'll take 1.5K as a max. Nova Scotia might be able to increase their numbers too, especially considering they have a provincial government. Perhaps as high as 4K. PEI meanwhile would be lucky to get 500.

This puts 7K in the Atlantic.

This is a subtotal of 71K

Currently, Ontario has a little under 26K and Quebec, under 6K. This would give us a total of 32K for the central provinces, for a grand total of 103K

In Ontario the NDP has room to grow, especially with a somewhat successful provincial campaign, and increasing interest in the party. Lets presume they can continue the current trend and improve upon it. They could hit upwards of 41K by the time the cut off hits.

Quebec is where the real question is. If each member convinces two additional members to sign up each month, Quebec could have 48K by voting time. I don't see this as realistic though. If they could gain 4K each month, that gives them 18K by voting day which seems a bit more in like with reality.

So, this would produce the following


ON 41K
BC 33K
QC 18K
MB 11K
AB 10K
SK 10K
NS 4K
NL 1.5K
NB 1K
PE 0.5K
130K total

Quebec would end up with 14% of the final voting population.

Even in my super-quebec scenario, Quebec would end up with only 30%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

 

	Brian Topp Age: 51 Riding: Parkdale High Park, Ontario (He lives here but is not an MP) History: President of the NDP. Note: Seen as Layton's chosen successor by some Born: Longueuil, Quebec. Big Backers: Ed Broadbent, Roy Romanow, Libby Davies
	Thomas Mulcair Age: 56 Riding: Outremont, Quebec History: Former Cabinet minister in Quebec Note: First Francophone to seriously contest an NDP leadership race. Born: Laval, Quebec Big Backers: Lorne Nystrom, Alexandrine Latendresse, Hélène LeBlanc
	Peggy Nash Age: 60 Riding: Parkdale High Park, Ontario History: MP, Union Activist Note: Considered the only Female in the race with a real possibility to win Born: Toronto, Ontario Big Backers: Senior CUPE officials, Alexa McDonough, Lorraine Michael
	Paul Dewar Age: 48 Riding: Ottawa Centre, Ontario History: Mother was Mayor for quite some time, as well as MP and NDP President Note: Seen as inoffensive to NDPers of all stripes Born: Ottawa, Ontario Big Backers: Self
	Nathan Cullen Age: 39 Riding: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, British Columbia History: MP since 2004, businessman Note: Only candidate from the 3 Westmost provinces; where half of the NDP membership resides. Born: Smithers, British Columbia Big Backers: Self
	Romeo Saganash Age: 49 Riding: Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Quebec History: First Nations Leader Note: Possibly the first time a First Nations candidate has run for leader of a major party Born: Waswanipi Cree First Nation Big Backers: Rookie MP Christine Moore
	Robert Chisholm Age: 54 Riding: Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia History: Came within 1 seat of becoming Premier of Nova Scotia Note: Weak in french Born: Kentville, Nova Scotia Big Backers: Darrell Dexter,
	Niki Ashton Age: 29 Riding: Churchill, Manitoba History: Elected in 2008 at age 26 Note: Youngest candidate in the race Born: Thompson, Manioba Big Backers: Self
	Martin Singh Age: 38 Riding: Sackville Eastern Shore, Nova Scotia (He lives here but is not an MP) History: Businessman Note: First Seikh candidate for a major party Born: Nova Scotia Big Backers: None yet

[Holmes]

Mulcair self-identifies as an anglophone, fyi.

[DL]

I would not describe Helene Leblanc or Alexandrine Latendresse as "big backers" of Mulcair...they are run of the mill QC back-benchers. It would be more accurate to say "a slew of QC MPs". Bigger backers of Mulcair would be NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy, Foreign policy expert Michael Byers

Dewar has been endorsed by a slew of Manitoba government people.

Niki Ashton is backed by a couple of QC MPs and her campaign is chaired by Jean-Francois larose MP.

[MaxQue]

I thought than Mulcair was raised in Laval, but born in Ottawa, no?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

fine then YOU make pretty posts

[Хahar 🤔]

There seem to be a lot of Sikhs in Canada with names that aren't identifiably Indian. Why is that?

[RogueBeaver]

Ducasse endorsed Nash today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/author-of-sherbrooke-declaration-backs-nash-for-ndp-leader/article2244831/

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

oooo. That could give her a nice bump in Quebec.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

 

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[Holmes]

Why do you prefer Topp over Mulcair when, from what I've seen, he represents a lot of what you dislike.

[Hatman 🍁]

There seem to be a lot of Sikhs in Canada with names that aren't identifiably Indian. Why is that?

He is a convert.

[minionofmidas]

Martin is an Indian name. (A not uncommon Malayali Christian name, that is.)

[MaxQue]

Why do you prefer Topp over Mulcair when, from what I've seen, he represents a lot of what you dislike.

I think it indicates strenght, not his preferences.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yes it does... I thought I commented already???

[RogueBeaver]

Topp secures two heavyweights, including one potential future leader (Boulerice). While also giving us lots of attack-ad fodder.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/11/28/ndp-candidate-brian-topp-unveils-tax-plan/

http://davidakin.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2011/11/25/4946817.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Who the heck decided that Boulerice was leadership mat?

[RogueBeaver]

Who the heck decided that Boulerice was leadership mat?

Have you seen him in QP? I said "potential", not certain. Quite impressive for a frosh.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

He's always talking the French. Leaders need to be able to do QP in English and do it well, as well as be able to ask Q's and give A's in French without having to resort to English.

[Хahar 🤔]

There seem to be a lot of Sikhs in Canada with names that aren't identifiably Indian. Why is that?

He is a convert.

Is that at all common? In British Columbia, it's not uncommon to see candidates with names like Herb Dhaliwal or Jinny Sims who are Sikh.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

No, I don't think they are