Post your AZ & MI predictions here

[Tender Branson]

ARIZONA:

41% Romney
32% Santorum
14% Gingrich
12% Paul
  1% Others

MICHIGAN:

38% Santorum
36% Romney
14% Paul
10% Gingrich
  2% Others/Uncommitted

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney will reach 40% in both states.

[Niemeyerite]

Let's be crazy!:

AZ:

Santorum 38% 30%
Romney 36% 40%
Gingrich 17% 20%
Paul 9% 10%

MI:

Santorum 41%
Romney 37%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 8%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Arizona

Romney - 42%
Santorum - 27%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 12%
Other - 1%

Michigan

Santorum - 38%
Romney - 37%
Paul - 13%
Gingrich - 11%
Other - 1%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Romney squeezes out AZ. MI is a practical tie.

[TomC]

AZ
Romney- 41
Santorum-35
Paul- 14
Gingrich- 8

MI
Santorum- 40.1
Romney- 39.9
Paul- 14
Gingrich- 6

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney squeezes out AZ. MI is a practical tie.

Something about that, just sounds wrong.

[Tender Branson]

Did some research about turnout in AZ:

Ahead of the 2008 primary, there were 1,042,294 registered active Republicans in the state and 142,455 inactive ones (who can also vote in the primary), for a total of 1,184,749 voters.

http://www.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2008-01-18.pdf

This year, there are 1,124,726 registered active Republicans in the state and 104,614 inactive ones (who can also vote in the primary), for a total of 1,229,340 voters.

...

In 2008, GOP turnout was 541,767 or 52% of all active registered GOP voters.

http://www.azsos.gov/election/2008/PPE/Canvass2008PPE.pdf

...

Going with a projected decrease in turnout, like we saw in Florida, which had a 41.25% turnout, I would estimate turnout in AZ to be about 465.000

If turnout is similar to 2008 levels (52%), then turnout would be 585.000

I think it will be somewhere in between (ca. 47%) and therefore my turnout prediction for AZ is:

530.000 voters

[Tender Branson]

As for total registration, it is slightly up compared with early 2008:

2008 primary (ACTIVE): 2,713,070 (38.4% GOP, 27.6% IND, 33.4% DEM)
2012 primary (ACTIVE): 3,134,234 (35.9% GOP, 32.9% IND, 30.4% DEM)

2008 primary (INACTIVE): 442,886 (32.2% GOP, 35.8% IND, 31.0% DEM)
2012 primary (INACTIVE): 422,994 (24.7% GOP, 41.0% IND, 32.8% DEM)

2008 primary (TOTAL): 3,155,956 (37.5% GOP, 28.7% IND, 33.0% DEM)
2012 primary (TOTAL): 3,557,228 (34.6% GOP, 33.9% IND, 30.7% DEM)

...

As you can see, the GOP percentage among active voters dropped by 2.5% in the last 4 years and the DEM percentage dropped by 3%.

But because the share of GOP voters among INACTIVE dropped by far more, while Democrats and Indys gained, the overall GOP loss was 2.9%, while the loss among DEMs was just 2.3%.

Independents even gained 5.2% in the last 4 years !

[Eraserhead]

Why do you people still think Rick will win Michigan? Do you think the football field mishap will have that much of an impact?

(I'll do my official predictions on Monday.)

[TomC]

Why do you people still think Rick will win Michigan? Do you think the football field mishap will have that much of an impact?

The speech more than the field, but also I think pollsters are underestimating Dem turnout for Santorum, nefarious as it may be.

[Tender Branson]

The changing voter registration statistics of Arizona are really interesting:

Every presidential cycle, Arizona adds about 400.000 voters to its rolls.

That would mean that by November 2012, about 3.870.000 voters will be registered (3.45 million active and 420K inactive).

In 2000, the number was 2.17 million active plus 480K inactive for a total of 2.65 million voters.

...

And the changes in party registration between Nov. 2000 and the projected Nov. 2012 numbers are even more interesting:

Nov. 2000 (active): 43% GOP, 38% DEM, 18% IND
Nov. 2012 (active): 35% GOP, 30% DEM, 34% IND

[redcommander]

Romney wins both states, but I'm not predicting percentages yet.

[Tender Branson]

Nov. 2000 (active): 43% GOP, 38% DEM, 18% IND
Nov. 2012 (active): 35% GOP, 30% DEM, 34% IND

Just re-checked the numbers and it seems that Democrats and Republicans can usually increase their percentages by a bit between the primary numbers and the general election numbers.

So it will be more like:

36% GOP
31% DEM
32% IND
  1% OTH

on election day 2012.

Which further means if partisan GOP/DEM voters turn out in same numbers in November and about 10% vote for the other party's candidate and Independent voters split 50-50, we'd have the following basic results:

52% for the GOP candidate
48% for the DEM candidate

[NHI]

Arizona:

Romney: 40%
Santorum: 34%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 9%


Michigan:

Romney: 37%
Santorum: 35%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 8%

[Niemeyerite]

Arizona:

Romney: 40%
Santorum: 34%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 9%


Michigan:

Romney: 37%
Santorum: 35%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 8%

Why do you predict a higher % for Gingrich in MI than in AZ?

[Earthling]

Arizona:

Romney: 43%
Santorum: 31%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 9%


Michigan:

Romney: 41%
Santorum: 37%
Gingrich: 14%
Paul: 7%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

AZ

Romney     41
Santorum   29
Gingrich     15
Paul           14

MI

Romney     39
Santorum   37
Paul           13
Gingrich     10

[Eraserhead]

Final Predictions:

Arizona

Romney 44%
Santorum 29%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 7%

Michigan

Romney 41%
Santorum 39%
Paul 11%
Gingrich 9%

[ShadowRocket]

Arizona:
Romney- 43%
Santorum- 26%
Gingrich- 21%
Paul- 10%

Michigan:
Romney- 38%
Santorum- 36%
Paul- 14%
Gingrich- 13%

[You kip if you want to...]

Not gonna even attempt AZ, but it'll be a Romney win.

Michigan
Santorum 39
Romney 38.5
Paul 13
Newt 9.5

[Lief 🗽]

Arizona:
Romney 41%
Santorum 29%
Gingrich 21%
Paul 8%

Michigan:
Santorum 39%
Romney 37%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 10%

[Keystone Phil]

Arizona

1) Mitt Romney
2) Rick Santorum
3) Newt Gingrich
4) Ron Paul


Michigan

1) Rick Santorum
2) Mitt Romney
3) Ron Paul
4) Newt Gingrich

[Progressive]

Won't bother with AZ.

Michigan:
Santorum 39
Romney   36
Paul         13
Gingrich   12

[Indy Texas]

ARIZONA:
Romney - 41%
Santorum - 29%
Gingrich - 18%
Paul - 10%

MICHIGAN:
Santorum - 37% (wins by a Bush-and-Gore-in-Florida style margin)
Romney - 37%
Paul - 12%
Gingrich - 11%