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Author Topic: Post your AZ & MI predictions here  (Read 5122 times)
Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #25 on: February 27, 2012, 10:18:14 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 27, 2012, 07:24:05 PM
Arizona

1) Mitt Romney
2) Rick Santorum
3) Newt Gingrich
4) Ron Paul


Michigan

1) Rick Santorum
2) Mitt Romney
3) Ron Paul
4) Newt Gingrich


I agree with this prediction.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #26 on: February 27, 2012, 10:52:46 PM »
Quote from: shua, gm on February 26, 2012, 02:58:30 PM

MI

Romney     39
Santorum   37
Paul           13
Gingrich     10

I'd just switch Romney and Santorum here now.
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redcommander
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« Reply #27 on: February 27, 2012, 10:54:13 PM »
Arizona
Romney 44%
Santorum 23%
Gingrich 22%
Paul 9%
Others 2%

Michigan
Romney 38%
Santorum 35%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 10%
Others 3%
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Erc
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« Reply #28 on: February 27, 2012, 11:39:16 PM »
Michigan:

Santorum 40
Romney 38
Paul 12
Gingrich 8
Scattering 2

Arizona:

Romney 42
Santorum 33
Gingrich 15
Paul 9
Scattering 1
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #29 on: February 27, 2012, 11:43:28 PM »
Arizona

Romney 42%
Santorum 25%
Gingrich 19%
Paul 12%
Others 2%

Michigan

Santorum 38%
Romney 37%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 10%
Others 1%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #30 on: February 27, 2012, 11:44:33 PM »
Projected Michigan turnout:

963.000 voters
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RI
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« Reply #31 on: February 27, 2012, 11:59:52 PM »
Santorum wins Michigan by 1-2%. Romney wins Arizona big. Gingrich underperforms some of the recent expectations.
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California8429
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« Reply #32 on: February 28, 2012, 12:16:26 AM »
Arizona
Romney 42%
Santorum 32%
Gingrich 16%
Paul 10%

Michigan
Santorum 39%
Romney 38%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 10%
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5280
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« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2012, 12:18:43 AM »
Arizona
Romney 38%
Santorum 36%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 12%

Michigan
Santorum 40%
Romney 40%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 3%
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #34 on: February 28, 2012, 01:13:43 AM »
AZ:

Romney - 44%
Santorum - 24%
Gingrich - 21%
Paul - 11%

Michigan I'll do tomorrow.
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redcommander
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« Reply #35 on: February 28, 2012, 02:09:12 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 27, 2012, 11:44:33 PM
Projected Michigan turnout:

963.000 voters

That's up from 08 right?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #36 on: February 28, 2012, 03:01:14 AM »
Quote from: RockyIce on February 28, 2012, 12:18:43 AM
Arizona
Romney 38%
Santorum 36%
Paul 14%
Gingrich 12%

Michigan
Santorum 40%
Romney 40%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 3%

Those are some weird predictions.
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RI
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« Reply #37 on: February 28, 2012, 03:03:57 AM »

Yes, 2008 was 869,000 on the Republican side.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #38 on: February 28, 2012, 03:07:04 AM »
I'll say that Santorum wins Michigan by 4%, Romney takes Arizona by 10%, and Gingrich withers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #39 on: February 28, 2012, 04:31:35 AM »

My prediction is just a random number out of the air. I think it could be higher than in 2008, because more Democrats and Independents could vote for Santorum this time, strategically. And in 2000, more than 1.2 million voted. Therefore somewhere in between.

AZ is more easy to predict, see what I wrote on page 1 of this thread.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #40 on: February 28, 2012, 04:38:45 AM »
I also predict that Romney will outperform Santorum by 30.000 to 50.000 votes by the end of the day in MI & AZ combined. But most likely by about 40.000:

MI: 963.000 turnout (39% Santorum, 376K votes - 35% Romney, 337K votes - Santorum by 39K)

AZ: 530.000 turnout (28% Santorum, 148K votes - 43% Romney, 228K votes - Romney by 80K)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #41 on: February 28, 2012, 04:55:55 AM »
And another one of my predictions: There's a good chance that Santorum will overtake Gingrich today in terms of total votes in primaries and caucuses so far. My estimated numbers incl. MI & AZ are:

1,75 Mio. votes (39%) Romney
1,10 Mio. votes (24%) Santorum
1,04 Mio. votes (23%) Gingrich
0,52 Mio. votes (12%) Paul
0,12 Mio. votes   (2%) Others

Total: 4,53 Mio. votes
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #42 on: February 28, 2012, 04:57:28 AM »
I'm not going to bother guessing anymore because I don't have any reason to believe I can outperform Nate Silver's science.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #43 on: February 28, 2012, 07:36:36 AM »
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on February 28, 2012, 04:57:28 AM
I'm not going to bother guessing anymore because I don't have any reason to believe I can outperform Nate Silver's science.

Who is he predicting as the winner in Michigan?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #44 on: February 28, 2012, 07:47:13 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on February 28, 2012, 07:36:36 AM
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on February 28, 2012, 04:57:28 AM
I'm not going to bother guessing anymore because I don't have any reason to believe I can outperform Nate Silver's science.

Who is he predicting as the winner in Michigan?

Romney has a 55% chance of winning, Santorum a 45%.
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Scabr
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« Reply #45 on: February 28, 2012, 08:10:59 AM »
Arizona
Romney 42%
Santorum 28%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 10%

Michigan
Santorum 38%
Romney 37%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 12%
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hotpprs
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« Reply #46 on: February 28, 2012, 09:22:01 AM »
Michigan:
Santorum 41%
Romney 38%
Paul 12%
Gingrich 9%

Arizona:
Romney 46%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 13%
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Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.
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« Reply #47 on: February 28, 2012, 09:46:51 AM »
Arizona:
Romney: 43%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 11%

Michigan:
Santorum: 39%
Romney: 37%
Paul: 13%
Gingrich: 11%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #48 on: February 28, 2012, 10:13:39 AM »
Mitt will win quite easily in Arizona (no need to go into percentages b/c it's winner-take-all).

As for Michigan, it really is way too close to call.  In theory, Santorum should have the edge b/c of the makeup of the state, and Democrats playing games (which was a big problem for Bush in 2000), but home-state bumps are tough to really quantify, even in polling.  I have to think that if he gets more than 39% (Mitt's total in 2008), he's probably gold, but who knows.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #49 on: February 28, 2012, 10:49:35 AM »
Arizona:
Romney: 44%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 19%
Paul: 10%

Michigan:
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 38%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 10%
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