Italy Local Elections May 2012

[Peter the Lefty]

I hope some scandal comes out about the M5S or Grillo himself that totally destroys it.  Might Vendola's energy have a chance, if he wins the center-left primary in 2013, to pull away a significant chunk of M5S voters?  He also has a perception as something of an outsider, doesn't he?

[Andrea]

First projections by RAI TV

Genova: Doria (Left) at 60%. Turnout less than 40%

Palermo: Olrando at 70%

In Parma more than 60% voted. It looks like 5 Stelle is ahead quite easily (60 to 40% so far)

From early reports, it looks like PD have taken Monza and confirmed Sesto easily (but another dreadful turnout: 39.36%)

[Andrea]

Como, Alessandria, Asti, Lucca, Aquila, Piacenza and Taranto looking good for centre-left

[Andrea]

5 Stelle is ahead also in Mira (province of Venice) and Comacchio. Neck and neck in Budrio (Bologna). PD probably defeated them in Garbagnate Milanese (3 polling station to come with PD leading 52 to 48%)

PD has lost Cuneo (to some censtrists). In Belluno a former PD defeated the official PD in a city run by PdL

[SPQR]

PD won in plenty of norhtern small-medium towns,where there was complete PdL-Lega dominance for years.
Good results in the rest of Italy as well, the exception being Parma.

One must not forget that Parma has had a considerable time of social unrest,following huge scandals about the previous administration. Anyway,it's going to be "fun" to see how a M5S mayor manages a medium-big city.
Also,looking at the vote tally,it's pretty clear that,where the M5S went to runoffs against the center-left, almost all of the center-right votes went to their candidate.

As I said,they are leftists no more...

[Andrea]

Alessandria
Centre-Left 67.97% Centre-Right 32.02%
turnout 42.14%
CL gain

Asti
CL 56.89% CR 43.1%
turnout 51,54%
CL gain

Trani
CR 50.79% CL 49.2%
turnout 54.17%


Belluno
Civic list 62.89% CL 37.31%
turnout 47.06%
gain from CR

Como
CL 74.86% CR 25.13%
turnout 42.73%
CL gain

Cuneo
Centre 59.88% CL 40.11%
turnout 53.48%
Centre gain from CL

Frosinone
CR 53.12% CL 46.87%
turnout 62.19%
CR gain from CL (what happened here? The result looked already bad from first round)

Genova
CL 59.71% CR 40.28%
turnout 39.08%
(I suppose that if PD had fielded Vicenzi again, Genova would have been won by 5 Stelle)

Isernia
CL 57.37% CR 42.62%
turnout 63.48%
CL gain (didn't expect it after first round)

L'Aquila
CL 59.19% CR 40.8%
turnout 58.04%

Lucca
CL 69.72% CR 30.27%
Turnout 44.95%
CL gain

Monza
CL 63.39% CR 36.6%
turnout 44.13%
CL gain

Parma
5 Stelle 60.22% CL 39.77%
turnout 61.18%
5 Stelle gain from CR

Piacenza
CL 57.77% CR 42.22%
turnout 54.38%

Rieti
CL 67.17% CR 32.82%
turnout 61.58%
CL gain

Taranto
CL 69.27% CR (not PdL though) 30.32%
turnout 43.21%

Palermo
Orlando 72.43% PD 27.57%
turnout 39.73%
Orlando gain from CR

Trapani (not yet final)
CR 54.62% Centre 45.38%
turnout 39.84%

Agrigento
Centre 74.89% CR 25.11%
turnout 52.79%

PD easily held Sesto San Giovanni (which is bigger than many of the "capoluoghi" just listed) after all the scandals (dreadful turnout though: 38/39%)

[Insula Dei]

Whatever happened in Como?

[Keystone Phil]

Whatever happened in Como?

Yeah, what the...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

[Andrea]

A "hot" issue in Como was apparently this project.
http://webstorage.mediaon.it/media/2010/02/123406_1754466_DSC_0734_9957890_medium.jpg

It was basically a wall to protect streets from floods. However, it ruined the panorama (and that would likely attract less turists). It caused so many protests from local residents that they had to change the plan and destroy it (increasing the costs for the municipality) before it was finished

Add internal splits within the city PdL, the general disaster for the right in Northern towns, low turnout...but seeing centre-left at 70+% in Como is still quite shocking.

[Keystone Phil]

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anyone is interested... Summary of the results, in the 27 provincial capitals up :

Left : 16 (+8) (L'Aquila, Piacenza, Rieti, Genova, La Spezia, Como, Monza, Isernia, Alessandria, Asti, Brindisi, Taranto, Palermo, Carrara, Lucca, Pistoia, Belluno)
Right : 7 (-10) (Catanzaro, Gorizia, Frosinone, Lecce, Trani, Trapani, Verona)
Third Pole : 2 (+1) (Cuneo, Agrigento)
M5S : 1 (+1) (Parma)

Pickups in bold. That's a bit complicated to determine sometimes, though. In Agrigento, the incumbent mayor was elected with the left in 2007, then switched to the PdL and for this election ran in the UdC (transformism FTW !). In Belluno, a PD dissident ran with a "civic list" and won.

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

You are joking, right ? You got wiped out of nearly all cities in play, often by the first round and polling around 15%. Lega utterly collapsed and lost all 7 runoffs it was facing. If your highest pride is having succeeded in electing a grillist, you know something's wrong... I won't go as far as saying it was a great day for the left on its own, but undoubledly it was a horrible day for the right.

[SPQR]

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

Phil,I hope you aren't serious,and try to understand that there is no such thing as "The Right".
PdL and Lega will not go together. PdL might not even exist anymore by then,and at this rate whatever party is created in its place might well be overtaken by the M5S.

So,for your mental health's sake,stop dreaming of a "Right-resurrection". The "Left" might not have won massive victories in these elections,but the numbers are pretty clear. Around 60 gains from the center-right out of 140 cities over 15,000 inhabitants.

Just trying to be clear.

[Keystone Phil]

Got "wiped out in all cities in play." I know. I acknowledged that. However, these are mostly small towns and there weren't that many up for grabs.

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

Phil,I hope you aren't serious,and try to understand that there is no such thing as "The Right".
PdL and Lega will not go together. PdL might not even exist anymore by then,and at this rate whatever party is created in its place might well be overtaken by the M5S.

So,for your mental health's sake,stop dreaming of a "Right-resurrection". The "Left" might not have won massive victories in these elections,but the numbers are pretty clear. Around 60 gains from the center-right out of 140 cities over 15,000 inhabitants.

Just trying to be clear.

"The Right" means whatever major center-right party emerges whether it is PdL or something else. Please don't tell me you think a major right leaning alternative won't even be present. If you don't think there will be a "Right resurrection" by the next general, that's cool. I'm not saying there necessarily will be. However, I think talk of an elimination of right leaning major parties (which is what I understand your posts to be saying) is silly. Wasn't the Left supposedly done after 2008's horrific performance?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Got "wiped out in all cities in play." I know. I acknowledged that. However, these are mostly small towns and there weren't that many up for grabs.

Maybe but...

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

So, the left kept Genova, took Palermo, and "the rest" saw the left double the number of cities it held and the right lose half.

[SPQR]

Got "wiped out in all cities in play." I know. I acknowledged that. However, these are mostly small towns and there weren't that many up for grabs.

Gosh, I really didn't see Parma coming. This is getting really worrying.

Otherwise, though, it was a great day. Fun to see the utter demise of the whole right...

Utter demise? You won local elections in some small towns. That doesn't translate into "utter" demise. You know the next general will be closer and even now, the Left advantage over the Right isn't massive.

Phil,I hope you aren't serious,and try to understand that there is no such thing as "The Right".
PdL and Lega will not go together. PdL might not even exist anymore by then,and at this rate whatever party is created in its place might well be overtaken by the M5S.

So,for your mental health's sake,stop dreaming of a "Right-resurrection". The "Left" might not have won massive victories in these elections,but the numbers are pretty clear. Around 60 gains from the center-right out of 140 cities over 15,000 inhabitants.

Just trying to be clear.

"The Right" means whatever major center-right party emerges whether it is PdL or something else. Please don't tell me you think a major right leaning alternative won't even be present. If you don't think there will be a "Right resurrection" by the next general, that's cool. I'm not saying there necessarily will be. However, I think talk of an elimination of right leaning major parties (which is what I understand your posts to be saying) is silly. Wasn't the Left supposedly done after 2008's horrific performance?

The two scenarios are completely different. The two Italys are completely different,I dare say.

The center-right in the last 20 years has been exclusively Berlusconi+Lega. That's it. No matter how hard one tries, there has been nothing other than that.
Now Berlusconi is gone for good, and Lega has been hit by incredible scandals which tarnished its historic leader.
So yeah,I don't see how one can even think that there will be a competitive center-right in 2013,if one thinks of the center-right in that way.

If we include Fini in the center-right,it doesn't change much. He and his party are seen as complete failures, and poll at about 3%.
The only hope for the center-right is Casini,and even then it would be an extremely moderate center-right,completely different from what we have witnessed so far in the "Second Republic".


As Antonio V pointed out in the last post,you tend to take things for granted a bit too much. Italy is not the same Italy that it was even 2 years ago.
Even saying that Genoa could have been a right pick up...when PdL candidate got 10%,and the centrist candidate got hammered by 20 points in the runoff...
And let's not even mention Palermo.

[Keystone Phil]

Fini has been a "complete failure" because PdL and Lega were still dominating. If PdL totally collapses, you don't think there's a chance that center-right voters turn to Fini again?

If Italy "isn't the same place it was two years ago," then I'd think both major parties would have disappeared. In reality, PdL is obviously much weaker but still polls within five points of PD!

You guys obviously have a better understanding of this than I do. I'm more than happy to concede that. However, I think too rosy of a picture is being painted for the Left based on some local elections. It looks like both major parties are unpopular (PdL more so, I'll admit) but only PdL is supposedly collapsing. They might take a real beating next time around but I still don't see how the center-right just vanishes. I know it was built mostly around a personality cult but I find it hard to believe that without that personality, center-right voters simply won't exist and/or won't have another major party to which to turn.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody is claiming that the right will completely disappear after the next election. However, nobody can deny that the traditional parties which once made up the "centrodestra" coalition as we know it (PdL and Lega) are enduring a major crisis. The didn't just suffer an electoral downturn, they have hit lows that nobody had ever imagine they could hit. This isn't going to magically go away in 10 months. It isn't to say they are necessarily "dead" or anything, but so far it's hard to see any road to victory they could have or even how they could pull out of this mess while they still have to back Monti and still seem to be intent at killing any proposed anti-corruption bill.

[SPQR]

Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

[Keystone Phil]

Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

Dude, in a handful of towns in local elections which had the lowest turnout in memory. Come on.

And I was definitely reading the comments from both of you to mean that the center-right was going to be totally dead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

Dude, in a handful of towns in local elections which had the lowest turnout in memory. Come on.

And I was definitely reading the comments from both of you to mean that the center-right was going to be totally dead.

It probably isn't (though we never know... seeing how quickly things are changing, both sides could be totally dead a few months from now) but it will most certainly go through a painful and relatively long period of recomposition, after which what will be left of it won't nearly look like what it was in 2008.

Dismissing these elections are a local phenomenon is definitely missing the point.

[SPQR]

Well,for the moment the PdL voters switched to the M5S...

Dude, in a handful of towns in local elections which had the lowest turnout in memory. Come on.

And I was definitely reading the comments from both of you to mean that the center-right was going to be totally dead.

I'm saying that the center-right in the way that it has been meant for the last 20 years is dead.
And that probably there is not enough time for a new one to emerge in just one year,with this political and economic scenario.

[Keystone Phil]

Then we aren't really in disagreement on anything here.

By the way, I just read in the Financial Times that while Berlusconi insists he won't run for public office again, there are rumors he might comeback of Alfano can't lead the party to victory next year. Any truth to this?

[SPQR]

There are no certainties about anything at the moment....what electoral law we'll use in 2013, whether there will be elements of the Monti government running,what coalitions there will be,whether the PdL will be still the same "entity" it is now,who will be its candidate PM....

[Keystone Phil]

Oh great. Well, 2013 will be fun then especially since there's virtually nothing else to follow politically.