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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
Iceland, but not Norway   -18 (12.5%)
Norway, but not Iceland   -11 (7.6%)
Both   -35 (24.3%)
None of them   -80 (55.6%)
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Total Voters: 144

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 135748 times)
Lurker
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« Reply #50 on: April 18, 2013, 03:40:50 pm »

Actually, Rødt/ the Red Party hasn't increased their share of the vote at all. Their polling average for last month is at exactly the same as their 2009 result - 1,3%. The reason why some polls are showing them as getting one MP, must be due to them getting/polling slightly more votes  in a county (probably Oslo) where they could win a seat and losing votes in other places, thus getting fewer "wasted" votes.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2013, 03:42:47 pm by Lurker »Logged
politicus
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« Reply #51 on: April 18, 2013, 05:07:55 pm »

Yes, its clearly a party that's unable to fill the space offered to it by a left socialist "big brother" forced to be pragmatic as a junior partner in a Labour/Centrist coalition. If you compare it to the similar Danish situation where Enhedslisten/the Red-Green Alliance has been highly successful in attracting disappointed left wingers from the SPP (and SD) the difference is striking.

As I understand it Rødt is more dogmatic than Enhedslisten. Any other reasons why they have failed?

« Last Edit: April 18, 2013, 05:35:44 pm by politicus »Logged

Lasitten
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« Reply #52 on: April 18, 2013, 05:22:14 pm »

As I understand it Rødt is more dogmatic than Enhedslisten and has been really bad at attracting young people?

Really? I had the impression in the opposite way.
So the "real" Communist party of Norway isn't any kind of player?

I have only met people from Rød Ungdom and I have the image that they have an active youth wing which is able to attract young people, not as much as the Socialist Ungdom, but still.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2013, 05:39:38 pm by Lasitten »Logged

politicus
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« Reply #53 on: April 18, 2013, 05:33:22 pm »

So the "real" Communist party of Norway isn't any kind of player?
No, NKP got 697 votes (0,03%) at the Storting election in 2009.

« Last Edit: April 18, 2013, 05:38:20 pm by politicus »Logged

Lasitten
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« Reply #54 on: April 18, 2013, 05:39:57 pm »

Socialist Left has been very pragmatic while in government, so there is room for a "pure" socialist alternative to their left. I am actually surprised they aren't doing better.

I'm kind of suprised of the same thing in Finland. The fact that the Left Alliance makes a lot of compromises and really pragmatic policies in the cabinet hasn't resulted in the rise of parties on it's left-side like the Communist Party of Finland. They try to hit us with everything they have but the popular support isn't coming up.

Finland even had a kind of cabinet crisis after the mid-term examination of cabinet program. They choose to lower the corporate tax by 4 percents to 20% (which is lover than the corporate tax in Sweden). At the same time they renewed the taxation of dividends. After the examination the leader of the Left Alliance announced that the cabinet made a mistake and the new dividend taxation is going to open a backdoor in taxation for big corporations. After the other parties first bashed him and stated that what's made is made the cabinet made a patch in the dividend taxation.

The Left Alliance threatened to leave the cabinet if the dividend taxation would be fixed. And even this new "fixed" taxation system is going to be too much to swallow for many of the activists and supporters with the drop in corporate tax.

Left Alliance is going to have a party convention next June and it's going to be interesting because there's a lot of pressure and displeasing on the party's policies in the cabinet.
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ingemann
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« Reply #55 on: April 19, 2013, 04:39:20 pm »

As I understand it Rødt is more dogmatic than Enhedslisten and has been really bad at attracting young people?

Really? I had the impression in the opposite way.
So the "real" Communist party of Norway isn't any kind of player?

Enhedslisten are a mix of several difference extreme left political parties going from democratic Euro-socialists to Communists (of all brands) . As such Enhedslisten can't be dodmatic as some parts of it support a democratic revolution and some a violent one.
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« Reply #56 on: April 20, 2013, 08:01:31 pm »


So, that's the state of the race in Denmark:





Is there a big reason for the DPP strength?

This is the coalitions' situation:


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BlueSwan
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« Reply #57 on: April 20, 2013, 11:43:54 pm »



Is there a big reason for the DPP strength?
The main reason is the meltdown of the social democrats. All the people disappointed with the governments fairly righht wing economic policies have got to go somewhere. A lot of people are going to the Red Green Alliance, but there are a lot of people who won't move that fa to the left. So they move to the right instead, probably figuring that the economic policies will be similar but with stricter immigration policies. DPP, being the opportunist that they are, have tried to position themselves to the left of the government on economic issues and they are being rewarded for this. However, the DPP will still support a Venstre government and will likely support that governments economic policies almost regardless of what they are like. Economic issues are not their primary concern - immigration is.
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politicus
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« Reply #58 on: April 21, 2013, 04:16:30 am »


Is there a big reason for the DPP strength?
DPP, being the opportunist that they are, have tried to position themselves to the left of the government on economic issues and they are being rewarded for this. However, the DPP will still support a Venstre government and will likely support that governments economic policies almost regardless of what they are like. Economic issues are not their primary concern - immigration is.

I disagree. DPP will have an interest in acting as a moderator on a Liberal governments economic policies, since being seen as a champion of welfare is their main possibility for growth - they already have the anti-immigration and law & order crowd.
They also have more voters receiving public benefits than any other party, so they cant allow policies that cut too deep in public welfare.
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« Reply #59 on: April 21, 2013, 10:13:25 am »

Yes, its clearly a party that's unable to fill the space offered to it by a left socialist "big brother" forced to be pragmatic as a junior partner in a Labour/Centrist coalition. If you compare it to the similar Danish situation where Enhedslisten/the Red-Green Alliance has been highly successful in attracting disappointed left wingers from the SPP (and SD) the difference is striking.

As I understand it Rødt is more dogmatic than Enhedslisten. Any other reasons why they have failed?



My impression is that the leadership of the party is filled with people still living in the 1970s.

It’s really extraordinary how they have failed to capitalize on the travails of SV. SV have been forced to take part in a lot of decisions that are unpopular with the party’s base, on issues from taxation to immigration and the environment. And yet Rødt has failed utterly to pick up disaffected SV-voters. 
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politicus
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« Reply #60 on: April 21, 2013, 10:33:52 am »

That confirms my impression of Rødt.

Welcome to the forum! Its good to see another Norwegian. We now have 2 Norwegians, 2-3 Finns and 5 Danes among our regular or semi-regular posters, so it should be possible to keep this thread going with regular updates.
 
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HansOslo
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« Reply #61 on: April 21, 2013, 06:10:02 pm »

That confirms my impression of Rødt.

Welcome to the forum! Its good to see another Norwegian. We now have 2 Norwegians, 2-3 Finns and 5 Danes among our regular or semi-regular posters, so it should be possible to keep this thread going with regular updates.
 

Thank you. As you probably know we have a general election coming up i Norway this fall, so there should be plenty to discuss.
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politicus
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« Reply #62 on: April 21, 2013, 07:01:49 pm »

That confirms my impression of Rødt.

Welcome to the forum! Its good to see another Norwegian. We now have 2 Norwegians, 2-3 Finns and 5 Danes among our regular or semi-regular posters, so it should be possible to keep this thread going with regular updates.
 

Thank you. As you probably know we have a general election coming up i Norway this fall, so there should be plenty to discuss.

Yeah, we already have a thread about the election under International elections.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168177.0
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« Reply #63 on: April 22, 2013, 12:52:44 am »

Yeah, we already have a thread about the election under International elections.

I will look that up!
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« Reply #64 on: April 22, 2013, 11:59:45 am »

It can also be noted that for the past 40 years, only one representative from a party to SV's left has been elected to the Norwegian parliament - Rødt's ,then called RV, Erling Folkvord in '93.   One of many reasons for this is that SV  contains large ideological differences, from semi-social democrats to extreme leftists. This electoral history doesn't bode very well for Rødt's chances at establishing themselves as a credble alternative on the left (even though you would have expected their chances to improve with SV's years in government.)

A big problem for the the Party IMO (beside the obvious) is that  they have no prominent  or charismatic politicians  at the national level - no Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, to make a comparison with Denmark (she incidentally seems to be one of their big idols these days). I doubt that anyone from Rødt's leadership would have a name recognition of more than 4-5% at most, and outside of Klassekampen they are pretty invisible in the media.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 12:12:15 pm by Lurker »Logged
politicus
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« Reply #65 on: April 22, 2013, 12:32:59 pm »

A poll from Rambøll has Danish SD at 15,6%. This is a new low and the lowest the party has been in 115 years! They got 14,2% back in 1898, if they go below that the next milestone is 11,3% from the 1895 election.Tongue

I thought 17-18% was their absolute floor, but this poll indicates it might be even lower.

With new cuts in unemployment benefits for the uninsured and student grants the party looks like they are going to commit suicide.

Red-Green Alliance 12,8%
SPP 4,3%
SD 15,6%
Social Liberals 9,1%

Christian Democrats 0,9%

Liberals 33,5%
Conservatives 4,2%
DPP 14,7%
Liberal Alliance 4,9%

The governments pressure on the Teachers Union during their present conflict with the municipalities has led to plans among union representatives of creating a party for SD leaning public employees, since this is a core constituency for SD its potentially quite serious for them.

At present only 4% of Danish teachers want to vote SD, down from 35% at the 2011 election.
 
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 01:30:50 pm by politicus »Logged

Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #66 on: April 22, 2013, 03:07:15 pm »

Starting count-down for Thorning-Schmidt's forced resignation.
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« Reply #67 on: April 22, 2013, 03:14:05 pm »

Yes, yes, this is the actual Prime Minister of Denmark, and not a parody

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #68 on: April 22, 2013, 07:48:36 pm »


Oh man, that's too funny.
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politicus
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« Reply #69 on: April 25, 2013, 05:43:49 pm »

The poll I showed was actually not the worst for Danish SD. YouGov 21-4 got them at 14,4%, so thats pretty close to the 14,2% from the 1898 election. DPP is quite a bit larger in this one.


SD 14.4%

Social Liberals 7.7%
 
Conservatives 4.0%

SPP 3.7%

Liberal Alliance 5.2%
 
Christian Democrats 0.6%
 
DPP 18.1%

Liberals 33.8%

Red-Green Alliance 12.4%


This recent one is better for SD, but SPP is approching the 2% threshold. DPP almost equal with
Its after they legislated the working conditions of the teachers, forcing the Teachers Union to accept 95% of the municipalities demands.  Apparantly SD got rewarded for this, while SPP is getting killed. Former chairman of their youth organization Gry Møger Petersen just joined SD, she is the last in a long line of ambitious young SPPers running for shelter in SD.

SD 17,8 pct.

Social Liberals 7,5 pct.

Conservatives 4,4 pct.

SPP 2,8 pct.

Liberal Alliance 5,2 pct.

Christian Democrats 0,4 pct.

DPP 17,5 pct.

Liberals 31,3 pct.

Red-Green Alliance 13,2 pct.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2013, 06:07:42 pm by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #70 on: April 26, 2013, 02:11:40 pm »

It’s interesting how different the Danish party system is from the Norwegian, given how similar our countries are. It seems like your Danske Venstre (The Liberals) are a combination of our main conservative party (Høyre), the agrarian party (Senterpartiet), the liberals (Venstre) and our Christian Democrats (Kristelig Folkeparti). What I don’t understand is your Conservative party (Konservativt Folkeparti). Where do they fit in? And why is your conservative party doing so poorly compared to their equivalents in Norway and Sweden?

The Danish left is of course also a whole lot different. The Norwegian Social Democrats (Arbeiderpartiet) have been successful because they have constantly branched out to new groups of voters. In the beginning they made an effort to expand their base from blue collar manual workers to include farmers and people employed in the fishing industry. As their traditional base of voters declined in the decades after the Second World War, they made an effort to include white collar workers (especially in the public sector) into their coalition. And during the last few decades they have become the main party for immigrants (at least the non-western ones). So I guess my question is, why haven’t the Danish Social Democrats been able to do this?
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politicus
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« Reply #71 on: April 26, 2013, 03:06:21 pm »

The Danish SD has included the same groups as Arbeiderpartiet, followed the same development in branching out and been almost as strong, its present leadership has just decided to follow an austerity line and been focusing on long term structural reforms instead of trying to reduce unemployment here and now, and since they campaigned on a Keynesian fiscal policy and better education as the way out of the crisis many voters feel betrayed. They have also dropped symbolic policy positions, like a ban on prostitution, which some voters are mad about, but mostly the party is just too neo-liberal for its traditionel voters and it has been unable to attract new ones.

Also the DPP has been really good at attracting disgruntled SD working class voters by styling themselves as old school SDs. DPP doesnt have the same Libertarian element as PP in Norway, so its more attractive to workers. And the Red-Green Alliance is far more competent than Rødt (as we have discussed earlier).

Your other question is more complicated to answer, but I will get back to it.
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« Reply #72 on: April 26, 2013, 03:40:57 pm »

It's interesting how different the Danish party system is from the Norwegian, given how similar our countries are. It seems like your Danske Venstre (The Liberals) are a combination of our main conservative party (Høyre), the agrarian party (Senterpartiet), the liberals (Venstre) and our Christian Democrats (Kristelig Folkeparti). What I don’t understand is your Conservative party (Konservativt Folkeparti). Where do they fit in? And why is your conservative party doing so poorly compared to their equivalents in Norway and Sweden?


Basically Norway and Denmarks started out having the same two party system with a conservative-urban Højre vs. a liberal-mainly rural Venstre, this system was then successfully challenged by our respective Social Democrats.

In both countries the original Venstre has split and given birth - directly or indirectly - to several parties.

In Denmark: Venstre and Radikale Venstre. In Norway: Venstre, Senterpartiet and Kristeligt Folkeparti.

A comparison of the Danish and Norwegian centre-right:

1. Høyre and Konservative Folkeparti are quite similar parties, the Danish Conservatives have just been defeated by Venstre in their struggle for the role as the mainstream centre-right party. As late as the 80s our Conservatives where bigger than Venstre, which looked like a doomed party because of urbanisation, but due to internal feuding among the Conservatives and a much more skillfull leadership in Venstre, which managed to "conquer the cities", Venstre became the undisputed mainstream centre-right party and the Conservatives are now a more or less useless and redundant party. Since DPP has the national conservative issues and Liberal Alliance the low tax agenda there is really nowhere they can get the necessary support to bounce back.

2. Kristendemokraterne exists in DK, but are not in parliament, simply because Denmark doesn't have the same bible belt as Norway and is generally a much less Christian country.

3. Radikale Venstre has the role Venstre has in Norway, but has been more successful lately due to good leadership.

4. Liberal Alliance is based on the more Libertarian wing in Radikale Venstre, but has been successful because the low tax agenda (that PP has in Norway) was left wide open when Venstre became more centrist during the 00s and the Conservatives where also perceived as too moderate on tax issues for some people and also not Libertarian enough for this segment.

5. Venstre is the old peasant party, equivalent to the Norwegian and Swedish center parties, but the difference is that Danish peasants are richer than Norwegian (and Swedish) peasants, so Venstre became more of a wealthy middle class party with a more right wing profile, this has allowed them to outmaneuver the Conservatives and become the main centre-right party.

EDIT: I should perhaps clarify by saying that Venstre was bigger than the Conservatives ever since the Conservatives Peoples Party was funded in 1915/16, apart from the 1980s, but at times the difference was rather small and the "natural" pattern would have been, that the urban based  Conservatives squeezed out rural Venstre as urbanization progressed.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2013, 05:49:16 pm by politicus »Logged

Lurker
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« Reply #73 on: April 26, 2013, 05:22:02 pm »

Does the Conservative Party still have a relevant role to play in Danish politics, or are they just a junior partner to Venstre? With the two parties being so simillar, aren't the Conservatives a bit 'redundant' nowadays?
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politicus
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« Reply #74 on: April 26, 2013, 05:57:48 pm »

Does the Conservative Party still have a relevant role to play in Danish politics, or are they just a junior partner to Venstre? With the two parties being so simillar, aren't the Conservatives a bit 'redundant' nowadays?

I put the relevant part of my long post above in bold.

That said they would claim that compared to Venstre they are greener, more concerned about helping the marginalized (mental patients, disabled etc.) and more interested in securing quality in culture and education + more humanitarian on refugee issues and at least regarding the environment and culture there is some truth to this.

Basically having two mainstream centre-right parties has been pointless at least since the 60s, and Venstres leader Erik Eriksen suggested a merger in 1965 - and then had to resign as party chairman when it failed. After that it was just a matter of which party would come out on top. This has been settled at least since 2001.

One reason there are still two parties, is that they have very different party cultures. The Conservatives being an elite party reflecting bourgeois culture and with certain noblesse oblige tendencies, while Venstre is quite folksy despite streamlining and modern communication and mixes raw materialism with Grundtvig and the Folk High School movement. The Conservatives still have the third highest membership of any party, so I doubt they will die out soon, but the party looks doomed in the long run.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2013, 06:50:14 pm by politicus »Logged

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