French UMP leadership election, 2012

[Hash]

UPDATE!

Fillon says that he doesn't want the presidency; but he wants the "truth". He wants Juppé to become leader instead while the issue is resolved and wants a collective leadership. He threatens to take this to court if there is no collective leadership

Juppé says he is ready to become leader while the issue is resolved, but only if both sides are fine.

Jeff tells people to shut up and is "daring" Fillon to take this issue to an internal commission for irregularities etc

[RogueBeaver]

Do the courts have jurisdiction over party primaries? Also, if it does go to an internal commission, what would their verdict most likely be?

[Hash]

Do the courts have jurisdiction over party primaries? Also, if it does go to an internal commission, what would their verdict most likely be?

I don't know if the courts have any jurisdiction over party primaries; this was regulated by party bylaws and organized by the local federations, so I don't really know if the courts could intervene in this. They would need to force an internal party commission to change its results or something.

[Hash]

Also, the Cocoe itself has basically lost all legitimacy if they did indeed forget to count over 1300 votes. The party apparatus itself is firmly controlled by Jeff and his goons, so make of that what you will. They'd love for Fillon to take this to the "commission de recours" because they could investigate fraud in Estrosian Nice; but Fillon's case is not fraud but rather the issue that they just *forgot* to count over 1300 votes!

[You kip if you want to...]

[Antonio the Sixth]

OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

[Hash]

OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

Fillon has said he doesn't want to be president anymore; I think he realized that they're both damaged goods by now (Jeff probably moreso because he's pissed off half the party) but his goal now is to oust Jeff.

BBF; if you read this thread - un lien vers l'ensemble des résultats par fédé? Ce parti de merde n'est même pas capable produire les résultats officiels par fédération!

[Antonio the Sixth]

OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

Fillon has said he doesn't want to be president anymore; I think he realized that they're both damaged goods by now (Jeff probably moreso because he's pissed off half the party) but his goal now is to oust Jeff.

BBF; if you read this thread - un lien vers l'ensemble des résultats par fédé? Ce parti de merde n'est même pas capable produire les résultats officiels par fédération!

Yeah, I should have said "Is there any hope left to kick Copé's slimy ass?". Juppé or whoever else takes the spot would be a major improvement.

[big bad fab]

OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

Fillon has said he doesn't want to be president anymore; I think he realized that they're both damaged goods by now (Jeff probably moreso because he's pissed off half the party) but his goal now is to oust Jeff.

BBF; if you read this thread - un lien vers l'ensemble des résultats par fédé? Ce parti de merde n'est même pas capable produire les résultats officiels par fédération!

Follow Yves-Marie Cann and Nicolas Obrist on Twitter.
First they have gathered all the stuff they could find on Sunday on local medias, on local websites from local UMP organizations and from Twitter.
That's how I have made my own map (see my blog)

But yesterday evening, Le Figaro has published copies of the COCOE's numbers. Almost nobody has noticed it, that's amazing (medias LOVE the bad guys like Copé and they HATE the honest men).
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/cocoe.pdf
And there are also the numbers for "movements" inside the UMP:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/images/114030625-114026490-Recensement-Des-Motions-1.jpg
I have to make a map for these too, but Iim currently exhausted (and DISGUSTED by Copé and his thugs) and with too much work to do

Today, Cann and Obrist will publish a comparison between their own numbers and those of the COCOE. But they were right from the outset: Fillon has won.

[big bad fab]

I'm so sad and desperate, you can't imagine...

It's far harsher to live than the defeat of Sarkozy or the series of losses in local and european elections in 2008-2011.


Inside the UMP, there is a "commission des recours" (appeals committee), to which you can appeal if the COCOE's decisions seem wrong.
The problem is that the appeals committee is full of Copé's guys, like the COCOE
But the other problem is that, maybe, a court won't agree to decide on a Fillon's file if he hasn't FIRST used the internal procedure...

[MaxQue]

I'm so sad and desperate, you can't imagine...

Oh, I understand, I perfectly know how I would have felt if Topp won the NDP leadership race instead of Mulcair.

[Hash]

I'm so sad and desperate, you can't imagine...

Oh, I understand, I perfectly know how I would have felt if Topp won the NDP leadership race instead of Mulcair.

There are no comparisons. If Topp had won, he would have won free and fair. Jeff didn't actually win, but his goons and his tools in the Cocoe frauded the results (in the same way they'd do it in Russia) and effectively disenfranchised over 1300 voters by not counting their votes. This is disgusting, even if you're a honest person who supports Cope (if such people exist); Topp vs Mulcair is only a case of a run of the mill leadership race with passion on both sides while this is a case of massive vote rigging.

[Kitteh]

Can someone tell me what the different UMP "movements" stand for? I know the Droite Populaire is the right-wing Copeist faction, but what do those others mean?

[Icehand Gino]

It's far harsher to live than the defeat of Sarkozy or the series of losses in local and european elections in 2008-2011.

Maybe a little off topic, but do you really consider 2009 as a loss ? UMP won 12 more seats than in 2004 and PS done their worst result since 15 years.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah well, now that it is typed I can't help linking it to here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=165295.0

...in case some of the brilliant episodes of all of this had been missed here.

And this post could fit right here:

...LAST BREAKING!

Juppé considers that according to their statements it seems that both camps have accepted his proposal. Which wasn't so clear given Fillon camp says it refuses it happens after the appeal commission, and Coppé maintains they want this commission, let's see then...

Frankly, since yesterday, I don't know what to think, that's totally unusual for the UMP, and symptomatic about so many things about the UMP, the French Right, the French political situation and institutions, and even about our society generally speaking, lot of develop about that, but so far it's more intense to follow than a football match! The situation seems to take a new direction every 30 mins!

Ah, and, the most ironical obviously being Sarkozy that could be prosecuted today...

Apparently it is really helping to tone things down. But nothing says it would rule the things, it went really violent. And Gaino is saying right now that this new commission would only be consultative.

Also, it is said to take a decision in 10 days, 30th of November is in 8 days.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Very last news:

Juppé will meet Copé and Fillon on Sunday.

So I arrive here at the end of the '1st season' of the drama. 2nd season might begin on Sunday if people manage to keep their calm till then.

I wonder how it can evolve...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Copé is an utterly disgusting individual. I have absolutely loathed him with all my passion from the first time I heard him speak.

I would never have imagined I would get so involved in a UMP election, but now this is a moral issue. We need him out, and I hope Fillon will have the balls to do all that's necessary to reach that goal.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Copé is an utterly disgusting individual.

Nah, he's just a totally modern politician, the biggest prototype of it we ever had in France, we are not used to it here so far, he took all the bad sides of Sarkozy and pushed it the furthest he could, but he has neither the 'talent', nor the strength of Sarkozy, so it gives a quite pitiful show, and yeah, a rather annoying one. As a politician that's an annoying bad clown, as an individual that seems to be someone a quite average one. I tend to think that in the total politico-economico-mediatico circus and permanent agitation people would be less and less conscious of what they are doing/saying, like those mice in their wheels (and to think we're in France which seemed more preserved than other countries so far about those stuffs, maybe we're all taking at once...).

I'd also rather support Fillon, who seems to still have a bit of sanity at least, but it would mainly be because he's more old school than Copé. Pécresse, Wauquiez, Ciotti, and some others wouldn't be much better than Copé as politicians, but yeah, globally those who still have a bit of sanity and/or political depth would rather be with Fillon than with Copé, I'd even tend to think it would be the main split within the UMP nowadays, because you can find centrists and 'far-rightists' in both camps, and truer centrists would in the end join UDI and truer far-rightists FN/RMB.

[Hash]

Can someone tell me what the different UMP "movements" stand for? I know the Droite Populaire is the right-wing Copeist faction, but what do those others mean?

Droite forte: a fraud based on the vague but powerful notion of 'Sarkozysm' and the 'Sarkozy generation' of the right; basically a shameless attempt by two young and ambitious grubby opportunists to further their own careers by attaching themselves to whatever the flying hell 'Sarkozysm' actually is. It also serves as a slightly less controversial version of the Droite pop, given that it has basically copied its reactionary and nativist ideology. Its main leader is Guillaume Peltier, aged 36, who was in the FN (and briefly MNR) until 2000 before joining Philippe de Villiers' MPF and quickly becoming one of the few 'talents' in the personalist and talent-less MPF. He joined the UMP in 2009, for reasons probably connected to his electoral failures for the MPF in Tours in 2007 and 2008. During the Sarko2012 campaign, he was fairly high in the campaign apparatus with the likes of Patrick Buisson. The other leader of this media-savvy fraud is Geoffroy Didier, a 36 yr old regional councillor who formerly defined himself as a "sarkozyste de gauche" but has basically transformed into a Droite pop-type reactionary.
I'm biased, but this joke represents all that is wrong with politics in general these days. It's driven entirely by image, flashy phrases/slogans and shameless opportunism (considering in 2007 that villieriste Peltier said he preferred Valls to Sarko...). It's also a good reminder that young right-wingers in France are the scum of the earth.
The motion was backed by Bernard Accoyer, Brice Hortefeux, Édouard Courtial, Pierre Charon and Jean Sarkozy (who is also a good example of why young right-wingers are HPs). Heavily Copeiste

Droite sociale: predominantly Filloniste faction led by Laurent Wauquiez. Wauquiez's big thing is the 'defense of middle-classes' and 'la lutte contre l'assistanat' (basically a right-wing catchphrase which is roughly translated to 'fighting welfare dependency'; I guess a French equivalent of 'welfare queens'). This might seem very neoliberal and all, but Wauquiez's faction is defined as being moderate and in the tradition of social Gaullism (with its concern for social issues - in the French use of the term and less previleged people) and christian democracy; but at the same time his crusade against l'assistanat can help him win support on the right. Wauquiez probably hates Cope by now, but he does not owe Fillon anything and he has his own ambitions: 2017 (or 2022) and he is a rather capable politician, who can win a primary by tacking right but campaign in the centre.
Key backers included Brigitte Barèges, Caroline Cayeux, Dino Cinieri, Isabelle Debré or Pierre Morel-A-L'Huissier

France moderne et humaniste: predominantly Copeiste but otherwise centrist/liberal faction led by Jean-Pierre Raffarin (now with a very mavericky, centrist UDFiste reputation), Luc Chatel and Hervé Novelli (two prominent right-wing liberals). It wants to be, basically, the UDF faction for a party which is largely dominated by the former RPR; so an alliance of social Gaullists/christian dems/centrists/liberals/radicals. Despite this centrist platform, it is led by Copeistes - notably Raffarin, who hates Fillon largely because Fillon rarely hesitates to use Raffarin's disastrous PM term as an example of how the right sucked in the Chirac years. Chatel and Novelli are two prominent right-wing liberals; Novelli was the leader of "The Reformers" liberal club.
Key backers included Raffarin, Novelli, Chatel, Jean Leonetti (Filloniste, non-Borlooiste Radical), Marc-Philippe Daubresse (Copeiste), Michèle Tabarot (Copeiste), Marc Laffineur (Copeiste), Hervé Mariton, Franck Riester (Cope's tool) but also Dominique Bussereau, Christophe Béchu, Claude Goasguen, Sébastien Huyghe

Le Gaullisme, une voie d’avenir pour la France: obligatory Gaullist thing for people who think that Gaullism actually means anything in 2012. Main leaders include Michèle Alliot-Marie (chiraquien), Patrick Ollier (chiraquien, pro-Fillon), Henri Guaino (séguiniste eurosceptic, Copeiste), Roger Karoutchi (séguiniste, Copeiste).

Droite populaire: Most well known faction, it is the right-wing nationalist/socially conservative/anti-immigration/FN lite/quasi-nativist/reactionary faction which doesn't like brown people and Muslims and loves the flag, the wine, the white Christian French civilization and all that good stuff. Top leaders are Thierry Mariani and Lionnel Luca. Heavily Copeiste (though Jacques Myard backed Fillon iirc; and Claude Guéant who is unofficially droite pop did too); the Droite forte sapped it of much support and media access (medias just love these 'young' 'up n coming' politicians who are nothing but stupid mindless hacks or drones).

La Boîte à idées: vague motion without ideology besides some type of internal debate/democracy; it is also anti-Droite Forte. It did have many big backers: Benoist Apparu, Arnaud Danjean, Hervé Gaymard, Chantal Jouanno, Bruno Le Maire with support from Edouard Balladur, Xavier Bertrand and Alain Juppé. So it was a major flop.

Might have missed some details, didn't really read much into them (too much BS).

[Andrea]

The mouvements results were


La Droite Forte - Génération France forte 2017 27.77 %

La Droite sociale avec Laurent Wauquiez 21.69 %

France Moderne et Humaniste 18.17 %

Le Gaullisme, voie d'avenir pour la France 12.31 %

La Droite Populaire 10.87 %

La Boîte à idées, la motion anti divisions! 9.19 %

It's not clear if they counted Mayotte and co votes here though!

[RogueBeaver]

Fillon will not accept the commission's findings.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/11/23/francois-fillon-un-parti-politique-ce-n-est-pas-une-mafia_1794946_823448.html

[big bad fab]

What is far more important today is that Copé has refused some of Juppé's conditions for a conciliatory mission that the latter was OK to lead.
So, the fight will probably continue, but Fillon might be able to prove that Copé is the one who is a problem.
And, before November 30th (deadline for parliamentarians to say which party they belong to and, hence, which party will receive public financing), he might be able to split the parliamentarian groups and to be stronger than Copé's remnant UMP.
We'll see, the situation is very tense and very fluid, but clearly fascinating.
All is live, all is occurring on air, it's amazing !

[doktorb]

I'll say one thing, this would make a cracking arthouse film in a few years time.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yeah, the ceasefire doesn't seem to be accepted at all.

Only thing accepted so far finally, a meeting between Juppé, Fillon, and Copé, on Sunday, but nothing else so far.

6 days remaining...

[minionofmidas]

francois-fillon-un-parti-politique-ce-n-est-pas-une-mafia

That's where you're wrong, Monsieur Fillon.