The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

February 21-24, 2013
Survey of 1,229 Kansas voters

Kansas Survey Results (PPP)

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The state went roughly 60-38 for Romney in 2012.

Interesting others:

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More liberal than I might have expected!

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Only 2% more favorability at most than Satan, Osama bin Laden, Charles Manson, Commies, the KKK, rattlesnakes, brush fires, and tornadoes? Wow!

It is a bad idea to mock the dead honored at military funerals.

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What can one expect of a genuine war hero who has had a fine political career?

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Not much attention to 'ancient history' in Kansas, huh?

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Maybe the book has limited circulation in Kansas.

NC (HPU):

Adults: 47-47
RV: 48-49

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/22memoa.pdf

Odd poll, but I am going with "registered voters", which is slightly less favorable to the President.  


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Vermont:

62-27 approve

http://www.castleton.edu/polling/feb28_2013/pollresults.htm

[Tender Branson]

We need a new CO poll !

Gov. race next year, Sen. race next year, swing-state in 2016 (or not ?).

[pbrower2a]

Vermont:

62-27 approve

http://www.castleton.edu/polling/feb28_2013/pollresults.htm

Boring, except when the fall colors are at their peak, which has nothing to do with politics.

Isn't it amazing that Vermont, one of two stats that Alf Landon carried in 1936 against the political juggernaut of FDR, has become one of the strongest states for the Democrats? As late as 1976, Jimmy Carter didn't carry it. The state votes like a big eastern city even though it is the most rural state east of the Mississippi.

Go figure. Sweet as maple syrup for Democrats.   


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

We need a new CO poll !

Gov. race next year, Sen. race next year, swing-state in 2016 (or not ?).

Colorado is the most interesting state that has not been polled since Election Day. It was the tipping-point state of 2012. Nobody has polled it since Election Day. PPP will be polling Michigan this weekend, so unless Q polls the state we have some time to bide. Its governor looks like a prime candidate to be Vice-President.
As it is the President has an approval rating of at least 50% in states with 277 electoral votes, and he is above water in every state that he has won -- so far.

He's doing nothing to hurt the chances of the 2016 Democratic nominee for President.   

Other 'interesting' states (among those not polled) --

1. Most electoral votes:

Washington (12)
Arizona (11)
Indiana (11)
Tennessee (11)
Missouri (10)
Colorado (9)
Alabama (9)

2. Big swings, 2008-2012

Indiana
Missouri
Nevada

3. Hillary

Arkansas 
 

[CJK]

Obama Approval for February (Gallup):

51% Approve

42% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Eisenhower: 72/16 (February 1957)

Nixon: 65/25 (February 1973)

Reagan: 60/31 (February 1985)

Clinton: 57/33 (February 1997)

Bush: 52/45 (February 2005)

[King]

Obama's approvals declined sharply today in Gallup.

Approve 47 (-4)
Dissaprove 45 (+2)

Lowest since his re-election.

[pbrower2a]

Obama's approvals declined sharply today in Gallup.

Approve 47 (-4)
Dissaprove 45 (+2)

Lowest since his re-election.

The sequester. Acrimonious politics hurts all politicians -- but some worse than others.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama's approvals declined sharply today in Gallup.

Approve 47 (-4)
Dissaprove 45 (+2)

Lowest since his re-election.

The sequester. Acrimonious politics hurts all politicians -- but some worse than others.

The sequester didnt start until 3/1 and the last polling day in this poll was that day.  I dont see how that many people are even following the sequester to have a big enough change in approval to effect the poll that quickly. 

[pbrower2a]

But the acrimony had already begun.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama's approvals declined sharply today in Gallup.

Approve 47 (-4)
Dissaprove 45 (+2)

Lowest since his re-election.

The sequester. Acrimonious politics hurts all politicians -- but some worse than others.

The sequester didnt start until 3/1 and the last polling day in this poll was that day.  I dont see how that many people are even following the sequester to have a big enough change in approval to effect the poll that quickly. 

Also... this is Gallup, random 6% swings in a single day are their thang...

[Tender Branson]

TN (MTSU):

33-51

Poll data were collected from Feb. 11–19 via telephone interviews of 650 Tennessee adults conducted by Issues and Answers Network Inc. using balanced, random samples of Tennessee landline and cell phones. The data were weighted to match the latest available Census estimates of gender and race proportions in Tennessee.

http://www.dnj.com/article/20130307/NEWS/303070023/MTSU-Poll-Most-state-give-Obama-low-approval

[pbrower2a]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-post-maryland-poll-february-2013/2013/02/26/515a36f8-8007-11e2-a671-0307392de8de_page.html

Maryland, Obama approval 61-37. No change. Washington Post.

http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/04/uttt-poll-perry-starts-ahead-abbott-2014-race/

Texas Tribune, Texas.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/images/2013/03/03/UT-TxTrib-PollFeb2013.004.png

"What is your opinion of President Obama?"

Very favorable 24%
Slightly favorable 16%
Neither 6%
Somewhat unfavorable 7%
Strongly unfavorable 47%
Don't know 1%

(adds up to 101% by rounding).

Favorability poll which I do not use.

TN (MTSU):

33-51

Poll data were collected from Feb. 11–19 via telephone interviews of 650 Tennessee adults conducted by Issues and Answers Network Inc. using balanced, random samples of Tennessee landline and cell phones. The data were weighted to match the latest available Census estimates of gender and race proportions in Tennessee.

http://www.dnj.com/article/20130307/NEWS/303070023/MTSU-Poll-Most-state-give-Obama-low-approval

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

The MTSU poll is old, and it has gotten some strange results in the past. Besides, President Obama got 39% of the vote in 2012, which is 6% more than the approval rating that the President has.

I would have expected an approval rating near 40%.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The MTSU poll is old, and it has gotten some strange results in the past. Besides, President Obama got 39% of the vote in 2012, which is 6% more than the approval rating that the President has.

I would have expected an approval rating near 40%.

He got 39% approval of the people who had an opinion one way or another.

[pbrower2a]

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Slipping.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_308.pdf


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

CT (Quinnipiac):

53-44

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1864

[pbrower2a]

CT (Quinnipiac):

53-44

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1864

Seven more unsurprising EV points in pink in a state rarely polled.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Not surprising, but he now has over 270 electoral votes worth of maroon/red/pink.

20 of those just went to a tie. Most of the states in pink got there before the President's approval rating was 50%+ nationwide.  That's the first exact tie that I have seen since the 2012 election.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/pennsylvania-miscellany.html#more

Even at that a 48% tie is usually good enough for a win in a general election half a year away.

Barack Obama is doing nothing to hurt the chances of a Democratic nominee for President in 2016 at least if that nominee:

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The Republican plan to undo the state's winner-take-all distribution of electoral votes won't be popular.

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The incumbent Republican Governor is extremely unpopular.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, PA -- Obama approval 44%, disapproval 51%. Averaged with PPP due to near simultaneity:

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (20% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Nationwide, Rasmussen:

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Bleeding must have stopped for Presidential approval.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1867

PPP, North Carolina:

North Carolinians narrowly give Barack Obama poor marks, with 47% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/north-carolina-miscellany.html

PPP, Florida:

We find Florida voters closely divided in their opinion about both Barack Obama (49/48) and each of their US Senators- Marco Rubio is at 44/43 and Bill Nelson comes in at 38/40.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/florida-miscellany.html#more

Quinnipiac, Florida:

President Obama remains slightly above water in Florida, with a 50 - 45 percent job approval rating.
 
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1870

Averaged between 49 and 50, the result for Florida is just under 50.



Marquette Law School, Wisconsin:

President Barack Obama’s job approval stands at 48 percent, with 45 percent disapproval.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/03/19/new-mu-law-poll-looks-at-wisc-views-on-guns-education-economy/

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Maxwell]

Man, Nelson has been running against some dreadful candidates

[pbrower2a]

The post-election bump is gone, federal politics have returned to acrimony, Republican pols are returning to their "Obama is evil" mode... but all in all President Obama seems to have roughly the same support as he did at election time. 

The President so far is not hurting the chances of any Democratic nominee to win in 2016. 

[Tender Branson]

SD (PPP)

38-57

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SD_320.pdf

WI (St. Norbert College)

53-44

http://www.snc.edu/communications/docs/pressreleases/13SpWIRelease.pdf

CA (PPIC)

66-32 (adults)
62-36 (registered voters)
57-40 ("likely voters")

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0313.pdf