The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Per risk of sounding like circa-2012 Republican, I think this might just be a bad poll. We get those sometimes.

Possible. Quinnipiac is usually a good poster, but it is new in polling Colorado. Q could have a poor sample by accident that it might not have the next time.  There will be more polls that will either confirm or contradict this one, and in a month or so that might be a Q poll. This poll could get other pollsters interested in Colorado.

It could also be controversy over the death penalty. People get used to the abolition of the death penalty when they discover that the murder rate does not rise.  Capital punishment affects few people in practice. Body armor on cops probably does more to stop capital punishment than anything else -- because the crook fires an ineffective shot at the cop's chest and is shot dead or because the crook tries to aim at the cop's unarmored head with the cop getting an opportunity to deliver a fatal shot at the crook.  The crook dies, which is best for about everyone.

[CatoMinor]

I have translated Pbrower's map into English.

[pbrower2a]

Texas Tribune. Obama approval 43%, disapproval 50%. Not bad, really, for Texas.  It's hard to believe that he gets more approval than the Texas state legislature.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/images/2013/06/17/UT-TT-Poll-Tuesday.363_png_312x1000_q100.png


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

UT (Brigham Young University)

31% approve
69% disapprove

http://utahdatapoints.com/abrown/utahdatapoints/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/June-2013-UVP-Topline.pdf

FL (Quinnipiac)

47% approve
48% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1910

CT (Quinnipiac)

50% approve
46% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1911

[pbrower2a]

UT (Brigham Young University)

31% approve
69% disapprove

http://utahdatapoints.com/abrown/utahdatapoints/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/June-2013-UVP-Topline.pdf

FL (Quinnipiac)

47% approve
48% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1910

CT (Quinnipiac)

50% approve
46% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1911

Thank you for the polls. They include data useful for some other maps (Gubernatorial approval, the 2016 election, and gun control).

Utah -- his unpopularity in this state is in the range in which elected Presidents have cause for fear from military coups. Mercifully Utah is at or near the partisan extreme.

Connecticut -- weak, but the President isn't campaigning for re-election.

Florida -- if he were in this position  at the start of the campaign year he would have to campaign extensively in Florida but he would likely win the state and the nationwide election.

The relevance of course is to the 2016 election. President Obama can lose the 2016 election for any Democratic nominee, but he seems not to do so.

 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Reaganfan]

[The relevance of course is to the 2016 election. President Obama can lose the 2016 election for any Democratic nominee, but he seems not to do so.

You keep saying that and I keep shaking my head.

[CatoMinor]

Just because competition is healthy

[BluegrassBlueVote]

[The relevance of course is to the 2016 election. President Obama can lose the 2016 election for any Democratic nominee, but he seems not to do so.

You keep saying that and I keep shaking my head.

At what? Objectively, Obama isn't unpopular enough at this point to harm his party's successor. A lot can change in three years.

[pbrower2a]

[The relevance of course is to the 2016 election. President Obama can lose the 2016 election for any Democratic nominee, but he seems not to do so.

You keep saying that and I keep shaking my head.

At what? Objectively, Obama isn't unpopular enough at this point to harm his party's successor. A lot can change in three years.

Again, we shall see. The only scandal that can stick is the NSA/phone monitoring.

[pbrower2a]

June 21-23, 2013
Survey of 807 Montana voters

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_625.pdf


........................................
The relevance of course is to the 2016 election. President Obama can lose the 2016 election for any Democratic nominee, but he seems not to do so.

 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Ohio:

40% approve
57% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1914

[pbrower2a]

Ohio:

40% approve
57% disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1914

This is a disaster for Democrats  if valid. Quinnipiac was very good in 2012. This fits the increasing support for Governor Kasich in Ohio. Maybe Ohio voters are increasingly looking at the Hard Right as a solution for enough things that it can allow further consolidation and entrenchment of its power, at least in the current bellwether state.

Quinnipiac has had some strange polls.

 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[/quote]

[CatoMinor]

[pbrower2a]

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(The state went 57.15%  Romney, 41.37% Obama in 2012)

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Good poll. More people seem to forget that they voted for Romney.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_703.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

July 5-7, 2013
Survey of 668 Iowa voters

Iowa Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

46% Approve

50% Disapprove

3% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Iowa_710.pdf

[Tender Branson]

14/7/2013:

50% Total Approve
48% Total Disapprove

Why ?

Republicans and Indies on holidays and not polled ? The new budget numbers showing a big surplus (-> see economic board) ?

[pbrower2a]

14/7/2013:

50% Total Approve
48% Total Disapprove

Why ?

Republicans and Indies on holidays and not polled ? The new budget numbers showing a big surplus (-> see economic board) ?

Exhaustion of 'scandals' that have faded from relevance?

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac:

Approval of the President, 46% approve, 51% disapprove. He's not hurting Hillary, though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1923



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

  
July 22, 2013 - Obama Approval Plunges In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton, Christie Tied In 2016 Race



Iowa voters disapprove 55 - 41 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, plunging the president to one of his lowest scores ever in any of the nine states surveyed by Quinnipiac University, according to a poll released today.

These Iowa results compare to a 50 - 45 percent disapproval in a May 24 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Today, men disapprove 60 - 35 percent, compared to a 54 - 41 percent disapproval in May. Among women, 46 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove, compared to May when 48 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1926

And one final note on Wyoming- Barack Obama is more unpopular there than any other state in the country with 27% of voters approving of him to 70% who disapprove.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/cheney-senate-bid-looks-like-an-uphill-battle.html

I am creating a special category for any state in which the Presidential approval is under 30%. That is "blue 90%"


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%

[jaichind]

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8irrnl3d27/20130722trackingreport.pdf

Economist/YouGov Poll has Obama approval/disapproval for RV to be 41/56 which is -15.  I find 56 hard to believe although Obama approval/disapproval is for sure significantly under water.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A new Rasmussen poll has Obama back up to 50%.

[pbrower2a]

A new Rasmussen poll has Obama back up to 50%.

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Usually Rasmussen has the harshest verdict upon President Obama. This is a "likely voters" poll, mind you, usually the toughest poll for a liberal

[pbrower2a]

July 25-28, 2013
Survey of 890 Alaska voters

Alaska Survey Results (PPP)

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

39% Approve

57% Disapprove

4% Not sure



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%

[Tender Branson]

1012 adults polled:

42-51 disapprove

162 non-registered adults polled:

47-42 approve

850 registered voters polled:

41-54 disapprove

...

The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with a national random sample of 1,012 adults age 18 and older from July 25 to 30, 2013. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.1 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey.

https://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/466195b6-6a33-4589-97d9-f3e6b7d95521.pdf

[pbrower2a]

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That's the good news for Republicans in Georgia. The bad news -- they are at risk of losing a Senate seat and the Governorship in 2014. Also, the people responding voted 43-50 for Obama in 2012. 

http://images.politico.com/global/2013/08/05/embargoed_gasenateresults.pdf





60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%