2016: Back to the Future or Forward to the Present

[NHI]

"Governor Charlie Crist!"

BREAKING NEWS: GOV. CHARLIE CRIST SELECTED AS VP

"Thank you all so very much. Ten years ago at this time I was a Republican and was running for governor of this state. Six years I was still a Republican and a governor of this state. Today I am the governor of this state again, but my name no longer has an R next to it. Today I am a Democrat...I watched my party move further and further away from the values and beliefs that were its fundamentals. The party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt and even Ronald Reagan is gone. What is left is extremist, uncompromising, broken party that is filled with ideologues and not leaders. I stand on this stage today with someone who is a leader, someone who understands where America needs to go. I'm honored to run with her and look forward to working with her in the White House." -- Charlie Crist

"...And there is it is. The Democratic Ticket of Clinton/Crist. For those just tuning in, Hillary Clinton has announced her selection of Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Once a Republican, Crist became a Democrat in 2012, then ran again for the governorship and defeated incumbent Rick Scott. There is already remarks from those on the right denouncing Clinton's pick and blasting Governor Crist."

STATEMENT FROM GOV. MARTINEZ:

I welcome Governor Crist to the race and I look forward to the campaign ahead, however I strong disagree with the choice of him to run as Vice President on the Democratic side. Governor Crist is a political weathervane, a man without any fundamental beliefs or convictions. People like Governor Crist are what is wrong with Washington today."

"Chris what do you think of this pick by Hillary Clinton. Many expected it to be Virginia Senator Tim Kaine." -- Rachel Maddow

"Well I am as shocked as anybody. I did not see this coming. When it speculated that Kaine was going to be picked I assumed Clinton was playing it safe, and also looking at the electoral map and wanting to hold Virginia down. This pick is a bold one, it certainly helps in Florida, but I think it appeals to a bigger message. She is attempting to show what is wrong with the Democratic party, when a moderate Republican which is what Charlie Crist was, makes the transition to the Democratic Party. It's a fascinating move by Hillary Clinton, we've already seen the attacks from the Right starting, now we'll see who Governor Martinez pick. Personally I think it'd be great if she selected Rubio, because that would be a fascinating debate to watch." -- Chris Matthews

ALL EYES ON MARTINEZ

The announcement of Gov. Charlie Crist as Hillary Clinton's running mate now shifts the focus to Governor Susana Martinez who is expected to announce her choice for Vice President in the coming weeks. "It will be someone who shares my vision for America, and is ready to become President if need be."

The Shortlist:

Senator Rand Paul
Governor Brian Sandoval
Governor Scott Brown
Former Governor Jon Huntsman
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

Polling from Selected Battleground States:

Ohio: Tossup

Clinton: 46%

Martinez: 43%

Pennsylvania: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Martinez: 44%

New Mexico: Lean Martinez

Martinez: 49%

Clinton: 45%

Florida: Tossup

Clinton: 45%

Martinez: 43%

Virginia: Tossup

Clinton: 45%

Martinez: 44%

New Hampshire: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Martinez: 45%

Arkansas: Tossup

Clinton: 48%

Martinez: 45%

Daily Tracking Poll: Post VP Announcement

Clinton: 50% +1

Martinez: 41% -0

Undecided: 9%

[Blackacre]

Called it! Crist FTW! This is awesome, if only for Martinez' attack ads against him that may highlight the policy shifts he made since the switch. This will be the ultimate test of Crist as a D; perhaps part of the switch was on his changes, instead of just the party's.

As for Martinez' pick, I'm betting on Rand Paul. His father's grassroots organizations and appeal to the youth vote could help her a lot. Either him or Huntsman

[Niemeyerite]

I predicted the Crist pick, too Martinez should pick Manchin now.

[NHI]

Meant to add third option to poll: Other.
My apologies.

[Liberalrocks]

Great timeline, I'm enjoying reading this. Seems fairly well put together.

[Maxwell]

Huntsman is a smarter pick, but I like Paul more.

[Blackacre]

ooh, dead even...

[tmthforu94]

Other: Rob Portman. She needs to stay safe with this. John Thune is another option.

[NHI]

Next update by Saturday or Sunday at the latest.

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: MARTINEZ TO NAME VP PICK TODAY

"We are coming to you as we follow the breaking news that Governor Martinez is set to announce her pick for Vice President at a rally in Des Monies, Iowa today. Like with Hillary Clinton's announcement we are very much in the dark over who she is going to announce very shortly, but speculation points to either Senator Rand Paul or former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman...so as we await the announcement who is the better pick for the Governor?" -- Rachel Maddow

"It's a fifty-fifty really. Paul helps keep parts of the base intact, perhaps voter who might sit home who vote third party. His nomination would unite the conservative and libertarian aspects of the party. The Huntsman pick is a call to the center. A bringing together of moderates and independents. I look at the VP picks over the last few cycles. Palin, Biden and Ryan. Palin and Ryan helped with the base with a nominee who was largely despised. However they did very little in helping the nominee win the general. Biden was a due no harm VP, now we can debate the particulars of that at another time, but Biden did help in reaching out to the voters that Hillary Clinton won in the primary. So in that regard Biden helped. For Martinez it all depends where she's angling. She may want to draw away moderates and the independent voters from Hillary Clinton---" -- Joe Scarborough

"Hold that thought Joe, we are getting word that today at the rally in Des Monies Governor Martinez will announce her selection of Governor Jon Huntsman to be Vice President." -- Rachel Maddow

"Predictable, but smart choice." -- Chris Matthews

"MSNBC is now able to report that Governor Martinez will name former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China under President Obama as her nominee for Vice President." -- Rachel Maddow

BREAKING NEWS: HUNTSMAN TO BE PICKED FOR VICE PRESIDENT

"The candidate Barack Obama and his team feared the most four years ago is now the presumptive nominee for Vice President." -- Chris Matthews

"While some in the base will be riled by his nomination, he's the smart pick because he helps where she is weak and going up against Hillary Clinton the foreign policy chops are crucial." -- Joe Scarborough

"And in many ways Joe that's what Biden did for Obama when he was announced eight years ago. He had the foreign policy experience Obama did not. Now my money is still on Hillary Clinton to take this all the way, but this is a smart and strong ticket and I like Martinez for choosing someone who may help her politically, the real motivation is to help her govern and Huntsman fits that bill." -- Chris Matthews

"...the next Vice President of the United States Governor Jon Huntsman!" -- Governor Martinez

"I am honored to join this ticket with Governor Martinez as we look to the future, especially come January when a new day is set to begin for the United States of America...." -- Gov. Jon Huntsman

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Pre Huntsman Pick

Clinton: 50% -0

Martinez: 42% +1

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Post Huntsman Pick

Clinton: 47% -3

Martinez: 44% +2

Selected Battleground Polling:

Ohio: Tossup

Clinton: 45%

Martinez: 45%

Pennsylvania: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Martinez: 45%

New Hampshire: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Martinez: 46%

Florida: Tossup

Clinton: 45%

Martinez: 44%

Colorado: Tossup

Martinez: 46%

Clinton: 46%

New Mexico: Lean Martinez

Martinez: 50%

Clinton: 45%

Favorability Ratings:

Hillary Clinton:

56% Favorable

35% Unfavorable

8% Undecided/Don't Know

Susana Martinez:

48% Favorable

37% Unfavorable

15% Undecided/Don't Know

Charlie Crist:

50% Favorable

39% Unfavorable

11% Undecided/Don't Know

Jon Huntsman:

47% Favorable

33% Unfavorable

19% Undecided/Don't Know

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: CLINTON FAINTS ON THE TRAIL

Hillary Clinton fainted while preparing for a campaign stop in Concord, New Hampshire. She is recovering and is expected to return to the campaign trail by tomorrow. While Mrs. Clinton is fine, this incident is certain to poise questions regarding her stamina, health and age as the presidential race continues towards November.

"Now turning away from the campaign politics towards a recent incident where Hillary Clinton briefly fainted. This episode has raised some concerns over her age, do you believe Hillary Clinton is too old to be president?"

"Absolutely not. Ronald Reagan faced these same challenges in 1980 and he too was Mrs. Clinton's age. So I don't question her ability to serve or see her age as a problem. What I question is the age of her ideas. We've seen the types of policies she is presenting over the last eight years and by and large they have not worked. Taxing and spending are not policy solutions, but the recipe for disaster." -- Gov. Susana Martinez

Daily Tracking Poll:

Clinton: 46%

Martinez: 45%

[badgate]

My my Susana, what a revisionist version of the last 8 years.

[Blackacre]

Glad Martinez took the high road and defended Clinton's age and used the opportunity to go back to policy discussions. I can see why you liked her enough to pick her as your nominee

[Jerseyrules]

...Hillary will be almost as old in 2016 as McCain was in 2008...

Just saying.

[NHI]

The Republican Convention: Cleveland, Ohio

The Republican Convention saw many high profiles speeches as well signaled a changing direction for the party. On the opening night Gov. Martinez's husband Chuck Franco gave a rousing speech, praising his wife's accomplishments as governor and offering a snapshot at their life together, including a retelling of the story told be Martinez at the 2012 convention on how the two became Republicans. 

The keynote speech was delivered by Senator Rand Paul. In his speech he strongly endorsed Martinez for President and outlined a vision of the Republican Party that included aspects more associated with his father and Barry Goldwater. In his closing remarks he denounced Hillary Clinton and the Democrats as, 'Agents of the past.'
I critique their view on government, not them personally. We disagree politically about how best to govern this country. We've tried it their way for eight years and we have the results to look at. Twenty trillion dollars in debt, out of control spending and government that grows bigger by the state. So the choice is simple in my own view: Let's keep going or let's start anew."

Interestingly in the opening convention speeches as well as the ones that followed not one speaker addressed President Obama directly. The focus remained squarely on Hillary Clinton. Other speakers included Senator Kelly Ayotte, and Marco Rubio, Governor Scott Brown, Governor Brian Sandoval, Condoleezza Rice and a memorial tribute to former President George H.W. Bush which included a joint speech by Former Governor Jeb Bush and Former President George W. Bush.

George Bush's appearance at the convention brought a standing ovation, the longest of the entire convention, when in his closing remarks he offered a small politically charged line: "In 1988 my father said to a similar convention, 'I will keep America moving forward, always forward for an endless and enduring dream and a thousand points of light.' Governor Martinez shares that vision and will keep the light of America lit for all time."

The final two night included the speeches of Jon Huntsman and of course Governor Martinez. In his speech Huntsman made the pitch to moderates and independents, while Governor Martinez outlined her vision for America, while contrasting with Hillary Clinton. Also in her speech she addressed the historic nature of her candidacy as both a Latino and woman.

"...I see a new Republican Party. One that has made a decision to nominate the first woman to lead a ticket for President of the United States. However it more than a simple change of appearance to our ticket, it's our party. We are not out for vengeance, we are out to lead. We are not out to divide, we are out to unite. I am proud to stand with Governor Martinez who I know will be an excellent President and I ask all those undecided to join our campaign and help the lead the charge to usher in a new day for America..."

"...It is a testament to this country and to the American Dream that I can stand before you tonight. I know we here politicians say all the time oh in America anyone who can become anything, anyone can do anything and it is true, but mostly it is political rhetoric for a speech and effect, but tonight I am a clear example that the American Dream is alive and that in American anyone from anywhere can do or be anything, even a little girl born in El Paso, Texas to a middle class family who believed in the American Dream and in the promise that their little girl could be anything, even be President of the United States. Dios, Salve America. Truly, God Bless America and thank you, thank you so much."

Four years earlier Governor Romney's acceptance speech drew 30.3 millions viewers. Eight years earlier John McCain's drew 38.9 millions views. In 2012 President Obama's speech drew 35.7 million views. In 2016 Governor Martinez's speech drew a record 46.6 millions views, making it the most watched convention speech in history. The Republican left their convention site in Cleveland energized and for the firs time Governor Martinez led Hillary Clinton.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Pre-Convention

Clinton: 46%

Martinez: 44%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Post-Convention

Martinez: 49% +5

Clinton: 43% -3

[HagridOfTheDeep]

That's one hell of a convention. I really do think it's a mistake to sweep GWB under the rug, so I'm glad he showed up.

[Jerseyrules]

GO MARTINEZ!  DON'T LET THEM HAVE 16 YEARS!

[NHI]

Democratic Convention: St. Louis, Missouri

Like the Republican Convention a week earlier the Democratic Convention spotlighted many prominent speakers, including Governor Julian Castro, Senator Kirsten Gilibrand and Lt. Governor Kamala Harris. However the highlight of the convention included four speakers: Former President Bill Clinton who, like in 2012 earned himself the name Secretary of Explaining Stuff.

"I'm proud of Hillary, not just because I've know her all these years, but because she is the most qualified person in this race and arguably in history to be President of the United States. Her opponent, god bless her soul is a competent woman no doubt, but she's peddling the same policies that were rejected four years ago. So you see the theme here with the Republicans. Let's put someone else up there, but we'll keep pushing the same politics that we've been selling since Reagan. The American people are smarter then them and wise to their acts. Game's up. We've tried our way for the last four years and I don't have to rattle about politics and policies, look at the results. They've worked..."

Aside from Bill Clinton's crowd pleaser Vice Presidential Nominee Charlie Crist echoed many of the same sentiments as President Clinton, only illustrating before millions of people that he was once a Republican and that he didn't change, the party did. "The Republican Party has pushed out moderates like myself and left us out in the cold. They claim to be a big tent party, but that's a line that fits on a bumper sticker. Yes, they've nominated a woman as their candidate and I salute them for that, but her policies are not beneficial to women, to minorities, to the young. She's catering to the one to two percent that Mitt Romney, that John McCain, that George Bush and so every other Republican has been catering too. Folks we will not be hoodwinked, not again!"

Of course the two biggest speeches were that of President Obama who nominated Hillary Clinton before his acceptance. The outgoing President applauded Clinton as a skilled diplomat and for presenting a vision that "builds on the progress we've made over the last four years."

In her speech, much like Martinez Clinton laid out her agenda for the next four years, while elbowing her opponents along the way. In her speech the former Secretary of State never addressed Martinez by name, only referring to her as the Governor or my opponent. Viewership was at a record high for Martinez's speech and many wondered if Clinton would be eclipsed, but when the numbers came in Clinton's convention speech topped Martinez's; albeit narrowly. Compared to the 46.6 million that watched Martinez's speech, Clinton's was watched by 47.1 million.

"People have recently commented that were on the verge of having back to back historic elections, and yes come November America will elect a woman president. Now while I hate to offer a dab shameless self promotion, let's make sure we elect the right woman in November!"

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Pre Convention

Martinez: 49%

Clinton: 43%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Post Convention

Clinton: 48% +5

Martinez: 45% -4

[Blackacre]

So two convention bumps later and we're back where we started. Cant wait to see what happens next.

[Jerseyrules]

Cant wait to see what happens next.

[NHI]

Battleground States:

Clinton/Crist: 248

Martinez/Huntsman: 205

Ohio: Tossup

Martinez: 46%

Clinton: 45%

Pennsylvania: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 51%

Martinez: 44%

New Mexico: Lean Martinez

Martinez: 50%

Clinton: 46%

Nevada: Tossup

Clinton: 46%

Martinez: 46%

Arkansas: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 48%

Martinez: 45%

Iowa: Tossup

Clinton: 48%

Martinez: 46%

Virginia: Tossup

Clinton: 47%

Martinez: 46%

New Hampshire: Tossup

Clinton: 48%

Martinez: 45%

Florida: Tossup

Clinton: 47%

Martinez: 45%

West Virginia: Lean Martinez

Martinez: 51%

Clinton: 46%

Missouri: Lean Martinez

Martinez: 50%

Clinton: 45%

Michigan: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 49%

Martinez: 45%

Wisconsin: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 52%

Martinez: 44%

Colorado: Tossup

Martinez: 47%

Clinton: 47%

Arizona: Lean Martinez

Martinez: 51%

Clinton: 44%

Maine CD 2: Lean Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Martinez: 46%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: September 2016

Clinton: 47% -1

Martinez: 46% +1

MARTINEZ LAUNCHES 50 STATE STRATEGY

CLINTON CAMPAIGNS IN OHIO

[Blackacre]

Wouldn't Clinton be doing better in Florida with Crist on the ticket?

[NHI]

Wouldn't Clinton be doing better in Florida with Crist on the ticket?

Clinton's supposed to have 47% and Martinez with 45%. Thanks for catching it.

[Niemeyerite]

Loving this: many states in play.

[NHI]

"As we await the start of the First Presidential Debate between Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico, a new tracking poll released today shows the race has a tilted slightly towards Mrs. Clinton, in spite of Governor Martinez's fifty state strategy. As we look at the next month and a half are these increasingly good numbers a positive sign for the Clinton camp?" -- Rachel Maddow

"I think we need to be careful reading into the polls. Just four years ago President Obama was leading Mitt Romney going into the first debate and bing just like that Governor Romney turned the race upside down. Now he ultimately still lost, but debates are proving to be crucial. In the primaries Martinez broke through the pack in them and has proven herself to be a strong debater. Hillary Clinton is also a stronger debater and both have spent a great deal of time preparing." -- Howard Fineman

"But with the Republicans urging a fifty state strategy is that smart politics, or should they be focused on the states they need to win in November?" -- Rachel Maddow

"The fifty state strategy can be looked at through two lenses, either stupidity or brilliance. Now is Governor Martinez going to campaign in Wyoming? No, or is she going to fiercely campaign in Vermont? No. This both a PR move and a strategic move to illustrate for the Dems that yes we're competitive, we can take you on in the ground game. Look Mitt Romney for all purpose could have beaten President Obama four years ago but the campaign underestimated the ground game of the Democrats, the Republicans and certainly Governor Martinez are not falling into that trap this time." -- Joe Scarborough

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: October 2016

Clinton: 49%

Martinez: 45%