Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

Aren't Eastern European countries generally more favorable towards the death penalty than Western European ones ?

Not necessary:

Poland (2007, GfK Polonia)
46% in favour
52% opposed

France (2007, Ipsos MORI)
45% in favour
52% opposed

The numbers are nearly the same. There are another variables than economics - religion, rate of urbanization, great criminal cases etc.

I still think that it is too late for this poll, when the debate is running. Someone could be embarrassed to say that he's in favour of death penalty, when Chancellor is saying that it is wrong.

I don't think people base their opinion on what the Chancellor has to say. People have their own opinion. This may be true for SPÖ voters, but not for other voters.

[Tender Branson]

New federal elections poll for Vorarlberg by Berndt for the "VN":



http://www.vorarlbergernachrichten.at/politik/2013/09/06/strache-liegt-im-land-vor-faymann.vn

(Surprisingly ?) strong result for the FPÖ there, and a very weak result for NEOS - because their leader is from Vorarlberg.

[peterould]

Any other polls expected this weekend? I presume the Gallup poll is a new one?

[Tender Branson]

Any other polls expected this weekend? I presume the Gallup poll is a new one?

I don't know, and yes.

[Tender Branson]

Trouble coming up for SPÖVP in Styria, regarding the federal elections !

From their own parties !

After the 2010 state election, the state government in Styria (SPÖVP) has passed a series of administrative reforms.

In the first stage, districts were merged together to save costs.

Until 2015, the government plans to cut the number of cities/towns from 539 to 285, by merging them.

Many mayors of these cities, basically all from SPÖ and ÖVP, are strongly opposed to this idea.

But the government has already said they will go ahead with the plan.

This leads to the following weird situation now:

More than 120 SPÖ and ÖVP mayors have now launched a "community initiative" in which they call for a BOYCOTT of SPÖ and ÖVP in the federal election !

They are fighting their own parties.



They also have posters with "No vote for SPÖ and ÖVP on Sept. 29 !"



http://steiermark.orf.at/news/stories/2601964

Let's see how this plays out in the election. Probably people will stay at home or vote invalid, because most people support their mayors and want their cities to remain independent and are not in favor of mergers.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup continues their series of state polls this weekend for the federal election:



Sample size is 400 for Upper Austria and 300 for Salzburg.

If we combine both polls, there's virtually no chance compared with the 2008 election results for SPÖ and ÖVP, as well as FPÖ. The Greens gain 5%, Team Stronach is at ca. 7% and the BZÖ is well below the 4% threshold. "Other parties" are polling between 2% in Salzburg and 4% in Upper Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria is especially interesting polling-wise, because Upper Austria is THE bellwether state in Austrian federal elections, meaning their party results mirror the national party results more than any other state.

[Tender Branson]

It seems urban first time voters are currently swamped with election goodies such as sunglasses, magazines etc. by the parties, in this case the Greens:



Notice that they have also been approached by another party ...

Can you find out which party ?



PS: I'm not even sure if these are first-time voters. They look like 12-15 in my opinion.

Maybe the Greens are already planning for 2018 ...

[peterould]

Neos wristbands.

[Tender Branson]

Neos wristbands.

Exactly.

...

ORF debates tomorrow:

Faymann (SPÖ) vs. Glawischnig (Greens)

Spindelegger (ÖVP) vs. Strache (FPÖ)

[Kevinstat]

I like the idea of a Black-Green-Pink coaliton, but the numbers aren't there. Even if Neos gets in (and the BZÖ doesn't), they would get c. 7 or 8 seats. ÖVP 47, Greens 30 - Around 85 max. It would need the other two partners to be doing better than at the moment.

What about Red-Green-Pink?  The SPÖ governed with the FPÖ in the early 80s and I've gotten the sense that the Liberal Forum, which is included in the NEOS lists, saw itself as a successor of sorts to the pre-Haider FPÖ.  Of course the SPÖ might have changed significantly in this time.  I think Tender described it as now being "a party of retirees and for retirees."  A party whose list includes "Young Liberals Austria" might not be compatible with such a party, but it's a thought.  The numbers might be short there as well (and that's assuming NEOS gets in which is doubtful), but it doesn't seem as far-fetched mathematically as a Black-Green-Pink coalition.

[peterould]

I like the idea of a Black-Green-Pink coaliton, but the numbers aren't there. Even if Neos gets in (and the BZÖ doesn't), they would get c. 7 or 8 seats. ÖVP 47, Greens 30 - Around 85 max. It would need the other two partners to be doing better than at the moment.

What about Red-Green-Pink?  The SPÖ governed with the FPÖ in the early 80s and I've gotten the sense that the Liberal Forum, which is included in the NEOS lists, saw itself as a successor of sorts to the pre-Haider FPÖ.  Of course the SPÖ might have changed significantly in this time.  I think Tender described it as now being "a party of retirees and for retirees."  A party whose list includes "Young Liberals Austria" might not be compatible with such a party, but it's a thought.  The numbers might be short there as well (and that's assuming NEOS gets in which is doubtful), but it doesn't seem as far-fetched mathematically as a Black-Green-Pink coalition.

Yes, Red / Green / Pink might just work, numerically and ideologically.

[Leftbehind]

Would a traffic light (NEOS blatantly being Austria's FDP) really have enough seats?

[peterould]

Updated predictions from the weekend - http://www.peter-ould.net/austria-election-predict/

[Tender Branson]

I like the idea of a Black-Green-Pink coaliton, but the numbers aren't there. Even if Neos gets in (and the BZÖ doesn't), they would get c. 7 or 8 seats. ÖVP 47, Greens 30 - Around 85 max. It would need the other two partners to be doing better than at the moment.

What about Red-Green-Pink?  The SPÖ governed with the FPÖ in the early 80s and I've gotten the sense that the Liberal Forum, which is included in the NEOS lists, saw itself as a successor of sorts to the pre-Haider FPÖ.  Of course the SPÖ might have changed significantly in this time.  I think Tender described it as now being "a party of retirees and for retirees."  A party whose list includes "Young Liberals Austria" might not be compatible with such a party, but it's a thought.  The numbers might be short there as well (and that's assuming NEOS gets in which is doubtful), but it doesn't seem as far-fetched mathematically as a Black-Green-Pink coalition.

Yes, Red / Green / Pink might just work, numerically and ideologically.

Would a traffic light (NEOS blatantly being Austria's FDP) really have enough seats?

Let's see:

Black-Green-Pink (25%-16%-4%) => 45% (Opposition: SPÖ 27%, 19% FPÖ, 7% TS) => 53%

Nope.

Red-Green-Pink (27%-16%-4%) => 47% (Opposition: ÖVP 25%, 19% FPÖ, 7% TS) => 51%

Nope.

...

And don't forget that the SPÖ prefers the status quo (SPÖVP), rather than "experiments" such as a possibly unstable 3-part coalition.

NEOS hasn't ruled out any coalition so far, other than a FPÖ-related. But first they need to look for 4% anyway ...

[peterould]

And that's why I said *might* work, but it would need the SPÖ and Greens to be doing slightly better then they are at the moment.

[Tender Branson]

60th vote in the poll, anyone ?

[Tender Branson]

Just in time for the ORF debate tonight between SPÖ and Greens, the SPÖ has found a fitting topic in the Green election program to attack the Greens:

The Greens want a speed limit of 80 kmh (50 mph) on rural main roads, instead of the 100 kmh (62 mph) right now.

This could be used to lure some Green "loan voters" back to the SPÖ if Faymann manages to spin it the correct way during the debate.

...

The other debate should be fun too: ÖVP vs. FPÖ is totally expected to become a shouting-match.

...

And on 10:15pm, Frank Stronach will be in the PULS 4 election arena, taking questions from the audience and from 2 journalists.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF debates (SPÖ vs. Greens) and (ÖVP vs. FPÖ) begin in ca. 20 minutes and will be live-streamed here (you can watch it abroad):

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/6653609

Stream starts at 8.14pm (you need to reload the page then if you want to watch).

[Tender Branson]

And on 10:15pm, Frank Stronach will be in the PULS 4 election arena, taking questions from the audience and from 2 journalists.

The very accurate pollster OGM does the debate surveys for PULS 4 and they polled the death penalty too.

Result: Only 14% of the 500 debate watchers (representative of the Austrian electorate) support the death penalty.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday's "election arena" with Frank Stronach was probably the biggest political train-wreck I've ever seen on TV.

At one point Stronach attacked the female moderator who gave the microphone to the audience members so they can ask questions, with: "Did you ever pay wages !!!"

Then he attacked the main moderators by saying: "I think you need a backup lesson on economy. Everything you are saying is plain wrong !"

Stronach never had a cohesive talking, only repeated his phrases that we heard many times before, etc.

People in the audience became clearly uncomfortable sitting in there, rolling eyes, laughing, or trying to take a nap ...

Then, at the end, the OGM poll showed clearly what debate watchers thought of Stronach's performance. Between 74-93% disagreed with his arguments on the topics in the debate:

[Tender Branson]

The 2 debate performance polls from yesterday from IMAS:





http://www.krone.at/Wahl/Strache-Angriffe_perlten_an_Spindelegger_ab-Im_TV-Duell-Story-375173





http://www.krone.at/Wahl/Faymann_und_Glawischnig_betrieben_Beziehungspflege-Duell_im_Schongang-Story-375170

...

No clear winner on both sides.

[peterould]

Just watched Stronach on Puls4. Car crash. Complete wreck. Write off.

[Tender Branson]

Just watched Stronach on Puls4. Car crash. Complete wreck. Write off.

Hopefully they end up with just 5-6% or so.

[peterould]

Just watched Stronach on Puls4. Car crash. Complete wreck. Write off.

Hopefully they end up with just 5-6% or so.

Will be very interesting to see what the polls are like for this weekend. I wonder whether we will see them slipping into the possibility of not being in Parliament. And where will their vote go? ÖVP? FPÖ? Neos?