Australia - 7 September 2013

[Smid]

There are some exceptional candidates running for election this year...

Wow... but when you combine Logan and One Nation, you get that.

It reminded me of those interviews The Election Chaser used to do (for non-Australians, comedy commentary show... kind of like Canada's Rick Mercer Report, don't know a UK equivalent... anyway, if you don't know it, just YouTube it). They would interview someone on the street, who would say something completely bizarre, and then finish it with a voice over: "This person votes."

[Vosem]

So the ALP seems to have gotten ex-Premier Peter Beattie to run in the QLD Division of Forde against LNP incumbent Bert van Manen; Forde seems to be quite the marginal district. Beattie seems to be a very strong candidate (the article I saw, can't remember where, posited that he could be a future federal party leader). So, considering Beattie's star candidate status and that Queensland seems likely to swing ALP, can Forde be rated Leans or even Likely ALP?

[RogueBeaver]

Coalition wants the warnings to Rudd about the insulation disaster released. Plus the Liberals are preferencing Greens last to try and shut out minor parties and prevent another hung Parliament.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Platypus]

Yeah, I shared that on facebook.

Re: Beattie. I love the move, but I have no idea how locals will feel. Is he from that seat? If he is,  it's going to Labor. If he's not, it'll be a very interesting campaign.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've heard the local Libs were already thinking it was going to be a up-hill climb. Beattie will probably just push it out of reach.

[Platypus]

You may well be right.

Smid, you know this seat particularly well - what are your thoughts about it?

[MaxQue]

Yeah, I shared that on facebook.

Re: Beattie. I love the move, but I have no idea how locals will feel. Is he from that seat? If he is,  it's going to Labor. If he's not, it'll be a very interesting campaign.

He represented Brisbane Central and apparently live in the federal seat of Brisbane, too.

[Smid]

Been a while since I was last in Forde, but it's a tough seat for the Coalition (a very different seat to the Forde held during the Howard era - which had all of its rural conservative booths cut off and donated to Wright at a redistribution) based predominantly on the state seats of Albert, Waterford and Logan, with a few other bits added on for good measure, and minus the more rural/conservative part of Logan. I saw it mentioned in an article in The Australian last week, written based on leaked Coalition internal polling. The article said that it was one of three Queensland Coalition seats where Labor was outpolling the incumbent. Don't know whether or not that's true, I always question leaked polling... who leaked it and what was their motivation? Was it to big-note themselves to a journo, or is it to try to swing some voters who will read the article... different motives lead to different accuracy in the data in the leaked poll.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm also always highly dubious of leaked internal polling... they're always leaked for a reason.

[Platypus]

New ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UVCJwn_iLOg

[Smid]

I'm also always highly dubious of leaked internal polling... they're always leaked for a reason.

My thoughts exactly. The actual internal polling is very accurate, usually pretty close to spot on, but that doesn't tend to be what gets leaked. Facebook suggests there was a ReachTEL poll in Forde today. Single seat pooling caveats, etc.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ReachTEL has it LNP 54-46 ... Yet another ReachTEL poll which is completely counter to prevailing wisdom. Either they're brilliant, or the habit of auto-dialing insta-polling will hopefully die.

Edit: 725 people in 30 mins... apparently ReachTEL seems to think just polling a lot of people (with auto-polling) just creates a smallish MoE and makes them accurate. These are the same people who have Bass and Braddon going to the Libs by 60-40 and have consistently 'off' internal numbers... and Abbott is preferred PM according to them.

People know me well enough to know I'm not a hack when it comes to polling, but this lot gets attention due to their relationship with the 7 Network but they should not be considered on par with any of the big four.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UVCJwn_iLOg

I wonder if the LNP will complain and get it pulled like the other one?

[TommyC1776]

Found an app on my iPad where they have Australian radio.  Now I can most likely hear election results next month.  :-)

[mattyman]

Found an app on my iPad where they have Australian radio.  Now I can most likely hear election results next month.  :-)

If I remember rightly, didn't the ABC do live coverage online that isn't geo blocked? I have watched a few of the state elections.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Found an app on my iPad where they have Australian radio.  Now I can most likely hear election results next month.  :-)

If I remember rightly, didn't the ABC do live coverage online that isn't geo blocked? I have watched a few of the state elections.

I'm fairly certain that's correct, and I'm sure it will be again this time round.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-WqnTrG204&nomobile=1

Prime Minister, REALLY!?

[You kip if you want to...]

Nielsen has the Coalition at 52-48, up from 50-50. Primary of 46 (+2) for the Coalition, 37 for the ALP (-2) and 10 (+1) for the Greens.

Rudd approval 48/47 (-3/+4)
Abbott approval 45/52 (+4/-4)

PPM has Rudd ahead, but falling 50/42 (-5/+1)

[RogueBeaver]

Commercial networks will banish the debate to their secondary channels. Meanwhile Rudd is stalling in QLD, stuck at 44% 2PP. At that level they'd hold their current seats.

[morgieb]

It still seems close...but I can't see Labor winning this election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New polls

ReachTEL - 53-47 Coalition  (with a few traditional WTF internals - as we are now used to - such as Abbott being ahead with women as preferred PM) - Abbott leads 53-47 as preferred PM ... it turns out if you don't make a decision on preferred PM, they hang up on you lol -

Galaxy - 51-49 Coalition - Rudd maintains double-digit lead as preferred PM

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd's been forced to dump a couple of candidates.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rudd's been forced to dump a couple of candidates.

I wasn't a fan of either ... good riddance.

[Vosem]

Rudd's been forced to dump a couple of candidates.

Well, Kennedy wasn't going to be won or Hotham lost anyway.