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Author Topic: 2016 Official Polling Map Thread  (Read 109862 times)
Obamanation
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« on: February 08, 2013, 05:11:27 pm »
« edited: March 14, 2013, 10:28:04 am by Obamanation »

Clinton vs. Rubio



EDIT: Adding most recent PA-PPP poll

Clinton vs. Ryan



EDIT: Adding most recent PA-PPP poll

Clinton vs. Christie



EDIT: Adding most recent PA-Qunnipiac poll
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2013, 02:16:09 am »

hahaha awesome
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2013, 03:07:31 am »

DOMINATING
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2013, 10:18:10 am »
« Edited: February 09, 2013, 10:25:14 am by pbrower2a »

Iowa, PPP. PPP is polling North Carolina and Louisiana this weekend, and could get some interesting results. 

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Rubio


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2013, 10:26:49 am »
« Edited: February 09, 2013, 03:38:29 pm by pbrower2a »

Unless someone utterly money-bombs the Republican primaries on his behalf, I can't see Christie winning the Republican nomination. Rubio may be over-hyped.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
unempprof
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2013, 02:34:13 pm »

Rubio is an early frontrunner.  He will make a fool of himself in the debates.  Guy's a lightweight.
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Obamanation
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2013, 01:53:55 pm »

Louisiana - PPP

Clinton.......46%
Rubio.........43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_021413.pdf

Clinton vs. Rubio


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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2013, 01:55:35 pm »

President Clinton 2017-2025!! Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2013, 05:41:09 pm »

You can add Louisiana to the list of states where Hillary Clinton might be competitive with a 2016 Presidential bid, at least at this stage. She has a 46/44 favorability rating in the state and has 3 points lead over Jindal (48/45) and Rubio (46/43) in hypothetical match ups. She ties Ryan at 46.

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Rubio



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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2013, 05:47:31 pm »

I can't wait for PPP to do a poll in Arkansas.  I did a poll late last year for school and I had Hillary winning the state with 57% of the vote against Rubio
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2013, 05:56:24 pm »

Has PPP stopped including Christie in their general election matchups because he's not competitive in the primary?
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retromike22
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« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2013, 10:20:03 pm »

Why don't you just edit the first post each time a new poll is added, instead of making new posts for each new poll? (just an idea, not a complaint)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2013, 02:11:06 pm »

Re: Rubio

His performance of the rebuttal to the President's State of the Union speech indicates that he is not ready for prime time. Republicans surely liked it for policy issues, but everything else left much to be desired.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2013, 02:27:51 pm »
« Edited: February 18, 2013, 07:41:32 pm by pbrower2a »

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...Correction noted, and the invalid material is removed.

PPP polled Georgia and Montana this weekend. We may find such interesting.  
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2013, 06:01:15 pm »

Poll questions released Wednesday also covered the 2012 presidential election results, attitudes toward women in the workplace and hypothetical 2016 presidential election match-ups involving the possible candidacy of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The poll results showed Clinton with leads over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (61 percent to 32 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (61 percent to 30 percent) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (58 percent to 34 percent).

http://blaircenterclintonschoolpoll.uark.edu/6760.php


This is a national poll, not an Arkansas poll.  And we discussed it two weeks ago, when it was first released:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169067.0
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Obamanation
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2013, 04:03:54 pm »

I am updating the map at the start of the thread. So far it will take the most recent poll, once we start getting a greater volume of polls, I'll average the last 3 polls per state, or so...

Feel free to add comments, as usual.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2013, 10:39:08 pm »

Georgia (PPP)

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Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Rubio




If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2013, 07:37:25 pm »
« Edited: February 21, 2013, 08:13:55 pm by pbrower2a »

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_022113.pdf

Montana hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President since 1992, when the state split 37-35-26 Clinton-Bush-Perot. Perot likely took more votes from the elder Bush that year. It went 44-41-16 Dole-Clinton-Perot in 1996. Dubya won it 55-33 in 2000 and 59-39 in 2004. The highest percentage for any Democratic nominee for President since the LBJ blowout was 47% for Barack Obama. Kennedy lost it with a slightly-larger percentage than Obama in 1960. Of course, Presidential politics in America before 1992 now might as well be ancient history. Don't let the close election in 2008 fool you: it will go D for President only in a blowout.

Montana is a swing state with its Favorite Son its recent Governor Brian Schweitzer, but three electoral votes haven't decided a Presidential election in a very long time.   If he is a VP nominee he might not swing the state because it isn't that close; his value for Biden or Clinton would likely be in places where populist tendencies have hibernated under President Obama.

Clinton vs. Christie



Clinton vs. Rubio




If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2013, 05:52:19 pm »
« Edited: March 08, 2013, 11:42:12 pm by pbrower2a »

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/03/michigan-miscellany.html#more

....The Republicans could probably win Michigan if they nominated Gerald Ford, the last Republican to win the state in a close election...



Clinton vs. Rubio




If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2013, 11:44:14 pm »

I figure Ryan would get about the same results as Rubio.  I have seen nothing on Christie lately.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2013, 08:00:02 am »

I think the trend map is more interesting than the straight up who's ahead map.  We now have quite a few Clinton vs. Rubio state polls.  Just counting polls that PPP has conducted this year on Clinton vs. Rubio, we have:

national, Jan. 3-6: Clinton +14
Florida, Jan. 11-13: Clinton +4
Minnesota, Jan. 18-20: Clinton +13
Texas, Jan. 24-27: Clinton +1
national, Jan. 31-Feb. 3: Clinton +8
Alaska, Feb. 4-5: Clinton +1
Louisiana, Feb. 8-12: Clinton +3
Montana, Feb. 15-17: Rubio +8
Georgia, Feb. 15-18: Clinton +3
Kansas, Feb. 21-24: Rubio +5
Wisconsin, Feb. 21-24: Clinton +14
Michigan, Mar. 2-4: Clinton +14

We also have the recent Quinnipiac national poll:
national, Feb. 27-Mar. 4: Clinton +16

So some disagreement about how much Clinton leads by nationally.  PPP says 8 points, and Quinnipiac says 16.  If you assume that the true national margin is the Clinton by 8 seen in that Jan. 31-Feb. 3 poll, then relative to the 2012 election, the trend would be:

Florida: R+1 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: D+1
Texas: D+12
Alaska: D+11
Louisiana: D+16
Montana: D+1
Georgia: D+7
Kansas: D+13
Wisconsin: D+3
Michigan: +/-0

But that doesn't seem right.  Not every state can be trending Democratic.  Remember, "trend" all has to balance out.  If, instead, we assume that the Clinton by 16 nationally number from Quinnipiac is closer to the truth, then you just add 8 points to the GOP side in every state:

Florida: R+9 (Rubio's home state)
Minnesota: R+7
Texas: D+4
Alaska: D+3
Louisiana: D+8
Montana: R+7
Georgia: R+1
Kansas: D+5
Wisconsin: R+5
Michigan: R+8

That map would be (ignore shading):



Perhaps that's closer to the truth, though the answer's probably somewhere in between.  If you assume that the Clinton by 14 national margin that PPP got in early Jan. is the true national margin, then you flip Georgia on the trend map:



There's either a north/south divide here, or a Dem. state / GOP state divide, with the more Democratic states trending Republican and vice versa.

Or, to put it another way, the polls show that, as of today, Clinton would beat Rubio by much more than the margin by which Obama beat Romney.  But most of those extra votes she would get are in the more Republican states, perhaps especially in the South.  Obama may have come closer to maxing out the Democratic vote in the North than the South.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2013, 09:11:13 am »

One way to look at it is to say that Barack Obama, although an above-average vote-getter, gets polarizing results. That could be race (for which he is obviously excused) or his unusual ability to win northern suburban votes but unusual incapacity for winning rural votes. Hillary Clinton isn't as polarizing a figure, or she can win the sorts of voters that he husband won but Obama could not reach.

If she is able to win the sorts of voters who went for Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 and the sorts of voters that her husband won in 1992 and 1996 but Gore, Kerry, and Obama lost beginning in 2000, then this is what I can predict for 2016:

Clinton vs. Rubio



At this point I have no idea of how Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, or two of the three Congressional districts of Nebraska would go. It could also be that Marco Rubio fails badly to live up to the early hype and will get wiped out early.


If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.   


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2013, 10:06:23 pm »

PPP, Pennsylvania.

I have seen little on Clinton vs. Christie lately. Hillary clobbers everyone else in Pennsylvania:
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H. Clinton v. Christie



Clinton vs. Rubio




If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2013, 10:51:25 pm »

I just love to see Texas go for Clinton in these maps.

Although I don't really think it would happen.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2013, 11:01:22 pm »

Where do the Iowa numbers here come from?  I don't see a general election poll for Iowa out there, but I might have missed it.
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