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  KY-SUSA: Paul 48% Clinton 44%
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Author Topic: KY-SUSA: Paul 48% Clinton 44%  (Read 2346 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 17, 2014, 07:46:05 pm »

SUSA poll of Kentucky:

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/Day2_MAYPOLL_.pdf

Paul 48%
Clinton 44%

men: Paul +17
women: Clinton +8
age 18-34: tie
age 35-49: Paul +9
age 50-64: Clinton +1
age 65+: Paul +6
education:
high school or less: Clinton +2
some college: Paul +6
4 years college degree or more: Paul +6
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2014, 12:56:25 am »

Those are ... great numbers for Hillary in KY.

Considering Paul is from KY and is highly popular there.

With this result, it's likely that Clinton would actually lead Christie, Ryan and Cruz there.

Maybe the Southern candidates Huckabee and Bush are ahead, but you never know ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2014, 01:06:24 am »

It also means that CO is 1 point more pro-Paul than KY right now ...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191461.0

In 2012, CO was 28 points more Democratic than KY ... Tongue
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2014, 01:21:20 am »

It looks like Paul has a home state disadvantage. Those who know him the best like him the least.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2014, 01:22:25 am »

It looks like Paul has a home state disadvantage. Those who know him the best like him the least.

His approvals are high in the state, so that's wrong.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2014, 01:49:07 am »

It looks like Paul has a home state disadvantage. Those who know him the best like him the least.

His approvals are high in the state, so that's wrong.

Maybe they still don't like the idea of him as President.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2014, 01:50:33 am »

It looks like Paul has a home state disadvantage. Those who know him the best like him the least.

His approvals are high in the state, so that's wrong.

Maybe they still don't like the idea of him as President.

Maybe, but more likely I think the case is that Obama was absolutely wrong for Kentucky, and having someone else on the Dem side is sort of a shock.
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RR1997
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2014, 06:41:03 am »

That's actually really close, especially considering the fact that Rand Paul lives in Kentucky. It would be interesting to see how the other 2016 GOP contenders fare in Kentucky.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2014, 09:54:46 am »

Considering Paul is from KY and is highly popular there.

Hahaha. No.

He is not "highly popular" here.
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Small L
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2014, 10:18:30 am »

Weren't they tied last time Kentucky was polled?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2014, 11:35:37 am »

Weren't they tied last time Kentucky was polled?

Nope, PPP last polled KY (in January) - and found Paul leading Clinton by 6:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=184307.0
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2014, 11:41:36 am »

Interesting. Clinton might be competitive here against a corrupt Northeastern loudmouth or a swarthy Cuban immigrant-lover.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2014, 11:46:04 am »

Why is Rand Paul even still a contender after his plagiarism scandal?

If a Democrat had been caught in a scandal like that, they wouldn't even have a chance of being reelected to the Senate.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2014, 11:56:32 am »

If Hillary makes nice with the tobacco industry, then KY could truly be a tossup.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2014, 12:22:59 pm »

If Paul only leads by 4, then she's probably tied with or leading against the other GOPers.
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Sqad Member Omar
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2014, 02:06:16 pm »

I hope you guys realize Kentucky has a large number of Democrats and the number of registered ones are growing.......

Also, Paul's numbers for blacks in Kentucky make me very optimistic.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2014, 03:14:18 pm »

Why is Rand Paul even still a contender after his plagiarism scandal?

If a Democrat had been caught in a scandal like that, they wouldn't even have a chance of being reelected to the Senate.

Republicans apparently can get away with more. It's a long story. Authoritarian right-wingers (which clearly excludes the pure libertarians... and the old-fashioned liberal Republicans who have largely begun to vote Democratic) generally have so little optimism about human goodness that they expect the worst of human nature -- and their politicians usually deliver the worst.

Democrats have been willing to sacrifice their politicians when they misbehave. Anthony Weiner. Pete Filson.  Kwame Kilpatrick. (I called him "Krookpatrick"). Lest we forget, the memorable William "Cold Cash" Jefferson.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2014, 03:22:15 pm »

You'd be quite a fool to think states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. are going to behave from now on like they did when Obama was on the ticket ... All three of those states have way more registered Democrats than Republicans, and all three still consistently elect Democrats on the local level.  Against a Republican voters in those states might see as liberal (Christie) or vs. a weak Republican candidate (Cruz), Hillary would have a great shot to win all three.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2014, 05:24:21 pm »

There are five distinct Clinton-but-not-Obama states that Bill Clinton won twice and Barack Obama got clobbered in -- twice: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Also of interest will be Georgia and Missouri.


state         Kerry loss  '04    Obama loss '08
         

AR              54-44                       59-39           
KY              59-40                       57-41
LA              57-42                       59-40
TN              57-43                       57-42
WV             56-43                       56-43                 

GA              58-41                       52-47
MO             53-46                       49-49

If you can see a pattern -- tell me what it is. I'd like to know.
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sjoyce
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2014, 05:36:41 pm »

If a Democrat had been caught in a scandal like that, they wouldn't even have a chance of being reelected to the Senate.

They could become Vice President.
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Cаквояжник
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2014, 06:47:04 am »

Considering Paul is from KY and is highly popular there.

Hahaha. No.

He is not "highly popular" here.

Yes he is, even among many Democrats.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2014, 10:08:42 am »

Considering Paul is from KY and is highly popular there.

Hahaha. No.

He is not "highly popular" here.

Yes he is, even among many Democrats.

No he is not.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2014, 10:22:39 am »

It also means that CO is 1 point more pro-Paul than KY right now ...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191461.0

In 2012, CO was 28 points more Democratic than KY ... Tongue

And New Hampshire is only 2 points behind.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2014, 11:32:38 am »

Considering Paul is from KY and is highly popular there.

Hahaha. No.

He is not "highly popular" here.

Yes he is, even among many Democrats.

You won't win this argument. Bandit believes that Bush only won KY in 2004 because of voter fraud.
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Cаквояжник
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2014, 04:24:12 pm »

Considering Paul is from KY and is highly popular there.

Hahaha. No.

He is not "highly popular" here.

Yes he is, even among many Democrats.

You won't win this argument. Bandit believes that Bush only won KY in 2004 because of voter fraud.

Okay, now I know.

by the way, Bandit, do you live in the Louisville area, because you may very well be someone I know.
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