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  NC: Meeting Street Research: Clinton +5 over Bush
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Author Topic: NC: Meeting Street Research: Clinton +5 over Bush  (Read 1334 times)
Miles
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« on: February 06, 2015, 11:32:03 am »

Report.

Clinton - 46%
Bush- 41%

Clinton- 47%
Romney- 42%

This poll was taken before Romney said he was wasn't running. They took a Republican poll, but the only macthup included Romney; I don't think it would justify its own thread because of that, so here it is:

Romney- 18%
Bush- 17%
Christie- 11%
Huckabee- 10%
Carson- 10%
Paul- 6%
Cruz- 5%
Walker- 4%
Perry- 3%

This was clearly before the Walkermentum, too.

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King
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2015, 12:14:33 pm »

Junk poll, obv.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2015, 02:14:05 pm »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2015, 04:52:34 pm »

It looks as if it is taken for some advocacy group. Suspect until I see otherwise. Hillary Clinton up 5% over Bush or Romney in North Carolina is suspect.
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2015, 05:03:36 pm »

It looks as if it is taken for some advocacy group. Suspect until I see otherwise. Hillary Clinton up 5% over Bush or Romney in North Carolina is suspect.

How so ? NC was R + 6 last election in 2012 and will probably be around R + 5 in 2016. If Hillary is up 10 points nationally against Bush and Romney then it is realistic.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2015, 05:22:27 pm »
« Edited: February 06, 2015, 05:26:37 pm by ShadowOfTheWave »

It looks as if it is taken for some advocacy group. Suspect until I see otherwise. Hillary Clinton up 5% over Bush or Romney in North Carolina is suspect.

Remember, Obama led everybody in almost all NC polls in 2011/early 2012. It just means the Dem/Dem leaning base is completely consolidated with Hillary now. The right leaning Independents will fall in line eventually.
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2015, 12:27:44 am »

If Hillary wins by the 10 points some national polls have, this is possible.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2015, 07:17:23 am »
« Edited: February 08, 2015, 07:24:02 am by OC »

If Hillary wins by the 5- 6 points some national polls have, this is possible.




Clinton/Kaine 318
Bush/Walker  220
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Devils30
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« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2015, 12:05:25 pm »

She'll win Florida by 1 point or so in that scenario.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2015, 10:28:01 am »

It looks as if it is taken for some advocacy group. Suspect until I see otherwise. Hillary Clinton up 5% over Bush or Romney in North Carolina is suspect.

How so ? NC was R + 6 last election in 2012 and will probably be around R + 5 in 2016. If Hillary is up 10 points nationally against Bush and Romney then it is realistic.


Good analysis. I get sick of people thinking that such and such state is "red" or "blue" All states move with the national popular vote. If Hillary is up 10 nationally, she is leading in NC by about 5. GA probably 2-4 and AZ toss up.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2015, 03:37:29 pm »

If Hillary wins by the 10 points some national polls have, this is possible.



Obama maxed out fifteen or so states with Reagan-like margins, so Hillary Clinton is not going to gain votes in states like California, Illinois, Michigan, and New York. The states in green (ignore the shade) that rejected Barack Obama as if he were George McGovern are the most likely to have the biggest shifts in the event that Hillary Clinton wins 55% or so of the vote.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2015, 08:59:46 pm »

^ In LA we swung towards Obama in 2012, unlike the other green states; still a 17% loss, but hardly the 37% that McGovern lost by.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2015, 12:01:00 am »


Nevermind. Since unknown partisan pollsters are now gospel, I guess this means NC is a lean D state! Rejoice. Smiley
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