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  LA: MRI: Edwards up 15%
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Author Topic: LA: MRI: Edwards up 15%  (Read 1538 times)
Miles
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« on: November 14, 2015, 07:39:22 pm »
« edited: November 14, 2015, 07:46:48 pm by Miles »

Report.

Edwards (D) - 53%
Vitter (R) - 38%

With black turnout adjusted to just 20%, its 50/40 for Edwards.

MRI must have gone right back into the field after they released this poll earlier in the week.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2015, 07:51:59 pm »

Pretty nice, TBH. Consistent with the last one, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2015, 07:55:53 pm »

Vitter has +5% favorables. Hmmm...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2015, 08:13:52 pm »

There's something significant about this poll, apparently all the undecideds in the poll are white. So, expect a huge Vitter jump on election day.

Also, while studying some of the 2014 polls (mostly the Kansas ones) and this year's Kentucky polls, I realized that the error in polling couldn't just be explained by undecideds completely going one way, it was also partially explained by the margin of error. Paul Davis was over 46% in many polls last year, but he ended up only getting 46%. Same for Conway in Kentucky (he was getting 45% in most polls, got 44%). If Louisiana follows a similar pattern, there is still a chance (a very outside one at that, though) that Vitter could win 51-49*. Most polls have Edwards at 52-53% with a margin of error at 3-4%. I don't think it will happen, I just won't be as shocked as some other people if he actually makes it uber close.

*There is actually something worse than the margin of error in some cases, saying your "probably" going to vote for the Democrat in a poll and then switching Republican at the last minute. May have contributed to Conway and Davis' fate.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2015, 08:23:45 pm »

There's something significant about this poll, apparently all the undecideds in the poll are white. So, expect a huge Vitter jump on election day.

Also, while studying some of the 2014 polls (mostly the Kansas ones) and this year's Kentucky polls, I realized that the error in polling couldn't just be explained by undecideds completely going one way, it was also partially explained by the margin of error. Paul Davis was over 46% in many polls last year, but he ended up only getting 46%. Same for Conway in Kentucky (he was getting 45% in most polls, got 44%). If Louisiana follows a similar pattern, there is still a chance (a very outside one at that, though) that Vitter could win 51-49*. Most polls have Edwards at 52-53% with a margin of error at 3-4%. I don't think it will happen, I just won't be as shocked as some other people if he actually makes it uber close.

*There is actually something worse than the margin of error in some cases, saying your "probably" going to vote for the Democrat in a poll and then switching Republican at the last minute. May have contributed to Conway and Davis' fate.

It does seem very interesting how polls often seem to be incredibly biased towards the Democrats in traditionally Republican states compared to the actual results. There are a heck of a lot of examples of this, and it's getting kind of scary, TBH.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2015, 07:07:58 am »

The issue for me is not how far Edwards may or may not be ahead - it's whether Edwards is either polling at 50%+ or close to it, to allow for the likely GOP homecoming. The issue in KY was that Conway's BEST polling was 48% back in May, otherwise, his polling average was about 43%, which should have set off warnings ... considering traditional Dem issues with turnout in off-off-year elections, shy GOPers (considering a pretty hardcore candidate), while it was still a remarkable outcome vs the polling, Conway basically got about what the polling said he would.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2015, 04:10:52 pm »

There's something significant about this poll, apparently all the undecideds in the poll are white. So, expect a huge Vitter jump on election day.

Also, while studying some of the 2014 polls (mostly the Kansas ones) and this year's Kentucky polls, I realized that the error in polling couldn't just be explained by undecideds completely going one way, it was also partially explained by the margin of error. Paul Davis was over 46% in many polls last year, but he ended up only getting 46%. Same for Conway in Kentucky (he was getting 45% in most polls, got 44%). If Louisiana follows a similar pattern, there is still a chance (a very outside one at that, though) that Vitter could win 51-49*. Most polls have Edwards at 52-53% with a margin of error at 3-4%. I don't think it will happen, I just won't be as shocked as some other people if he actually makes it uber close.

*There is actually something worse than the margin of error in some cases, saying your "probably" going to vote for the Democrat in a poll and then switching Republican at the last minute. May have contributed to Conway and Davis' fate.

It does seem very interesting how polls often seem to be incredibly biased towards the Democrats in traditionally Republican states compared to the actual results. There are a heck of a lot of examples of this, and it's getting kind of scary, TBH.

It's not surprising when you think about it. The Dem base is obviously going to be already locked in on races like this, so the undecideds are going to be overwhelmingly conservative. The same applies for blue states as well (MA-Sen in 2012 was supposed to be razor thin.)
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Flake
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2015, 10:58:11 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Market Research Insight on 2015-11-14

Summary: D: 53%, R: 38%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2015, 02:15:17 am »

It's definitely encouraging to see Edwards getting over 50% in most of these polls. Not only do undecideds have to break enormously for Vitter, but the polls have to be overestimating Edwards' support by at least 2-3%. I'm definitely getting optimistic, but cautiously so.
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